Wolverine has shown he can predict where Nightcrawler will port with his heightened senses. Sure Nightcrawler could port Wolverine's head away... the trouble is a gut full of claws will end the fight pretty quickly.
Also the reason one hit puts down Nightcrawler has nothing to do with Wolverine's strength and everything to do with his claws... that and Nightcrawler haveing human durability.
imo, nightcrawler would win
he has hinted to win danger room battles against logan by teleporting alot and causing logan to breath too much of that horrible sulfur smell in...remember logan has an enhanced sense of smell heheh
so in a fight these two wouldnt really kill eachother, but logan would be sneezing for a while