Originally posted by Burning thought
No more than I would stop driving to work if numbers stated that I had a 2% chance of having a crash on my road.
if there were a 2% chance of a crash when you drove to work the costs would be astronomical. I'd venture it would be foolish to drive to work in those circumstances.
Given weekends and holidays, there are about 255 working days in a year. At a 2% chance, that is 5 accidents per year.
You would still drive to work if you could be assured you would be in 5 accidents every year?
That is one every 2.5 months.
Forget injuries, repair costs and all that, can you imagine how high insurance premiums would be if the statistics said you would be in an accident 5 times a year? now take into account how often you would have to repair/replace your car. now take into account how likely it is that you seriously harm or kill yourself. or other people.
to throw some stats at it, of ~6 420 000 accidents in America in 2005, 2.9 million people were injured and 42 636 were killed. Sure, still only about .5% of accidents end up being fatal, but at a 2% chance of being in an accident, that means anyone who drives to work for 30 years is expected to die in a car crash (its a little more complicated, it would be that every 30 years of driving to work would mean that someone is killed in an accident you are involved in). Worse, it would predict 2-3 accidents a year in which someone was seriously hurt. This only includes driving to work. All of this doubles if we include driving home from work (ie, 1 accident every 1.25 months, 4-6 injuries a year, death in 15 years), and increases further if you include all the driving you do when not at work (~110 days + driving on workdays that isn't to or from work).
so, you are saying that you would still drive to work if you were essentially guaranteed 1 accident every 2 and a half months, half of which end in you or someone else seriously injured, and, if you continue for 30 years, causes a death or kills you?
A two percent chance of something you do more than 100 times is not a small probability at all. It only seems small when talking about children because people don't have 100 of them.
on a side note, humans are notoriously poor at grasping probability