United States Elections - 2008 downticket races: Senate, so on.

Why are there two of these threads, what happened?

Closing this one, use the other.

Nevermind, opened back up. Didn't realize this served a different purpose. Sorry!

Just as a clarification, this thread is about downticket races: Senate, House of Representatives, Gubernatorial races.

Use it accordingly 😛

And to post my post that couldn't earlier thanks to BackFire...

A lot of republicans seem to be retiring, I guess even they know they won't get elected.

Originally posted by sithsaber408
Wait, I thought RCP was no good?

Or is that only where McCain is leading?

During this election cycle, there have been 38 (voluntary) retirements at all levels of government: 32 Representatives, 5 Senators, and 1 Governor. 26 of that 32 are Republican, and all Senators and the one Governor are Republicans.

North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley and Delaware Gov. Ruth Ann Minner are retiring due to term limits.

United States House elections, 2008

United States Senate elections, 2008

United States Gubernatorial elections, 2008

Originally posted by sithsaber408

But I no longer use it for looking at polls or projections. There are simply better sources to use.

So when they compile news stories from around the country (election polls) and provide analysis (mccain is winning) is when you use the better sources.

I getcha. 😉

Stories and polls are quite different.

Nice try though.

Originally posted by Strangelove
Stories and polls are quite different.

Nice try though.

I could say the same for you! RCP was what you touted to give me a "lesson" in polls, because the individual ones that I was posting weren't accurate, according to you.

Better to have RCP average all of the polls to get a true idea of things, you said.

Now that the average shows McCain on top, you've changed your tune and say that they are only good for stories and analysis. (but not polls)

Perhaps you just don't like the analysis of the story that McCain the maverick has come from behind to expose Barack the phony and now the people in the country know it and the polls show it?

The timing of my change in preference may seem telling to you, but to be honest I stopped using RCP a long time ago. 538 is a much better barometer of polling (which is still useless anyway, because polls are a snapshot in time), and I won't apologize for it.

You'd only get analysis like that from Weekly Standard or Fixed News 😉

How come Kentucky was pretty Democratic for the Clintons, but not in general?

The South won't vote for a Democrat unless the Democrat is from the South.

Hillary's from New York though.

And Al Gore got no southern support.

Originally posted by lord xyz
Hillary's from New York though.

And Al Gore got no southern support.

And Al Gore didn't win because Bush was better at talking to them.

538.com currently estimates that Democrats will hold 55.6 Senate seats in the 111th Congress.

Originally posted by Strangelove
What does Hillary being from New York have to do with anything? She didn't win the South.

And Al Gore didn't win because Bush was better at talking to them.

Current projection:

Democratic Caucus: 56.2
Republican Conference: 41.8

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/senate-projections-109.html

Senate Projections: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/senate-projections-1024.html

Democratic Caucus: 56.6 seats
Republican Conference: 41.4 seats
Indepdendents (Liberman (CT) and Sanders (VT), who both caucus with the Democrats): 2.0 seats

Toss-up races or seats likely to switch party
Alaska (currently R)
Sen. Ted Stevens vs. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich

Projection: Begich +0.4 (Begich 53% to win) (pick-up)

Colorado (OPEN) (R)
Former Rep. Bob Schaffer vs. Rep. Mark Udall

Projection: Udall +8.8 (Udall 94%) (pick-up)

Georgia (R)
Sen. Saxby Chambliss vs. Fmr. State Rep. Jim Martin

Projection: Chambliss +3.3 (Chambliss 73%)

Kentucky (R)
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell vs. Bruce Lunsford

Projection: McConnell +3.6 (McConnel 75%)

Minnesota (R)
Sen. Norm Coleman vs. Al Franken

Projection: Franken +1.2 (Franken 59%)

Mississippi (Special) (R)
Interim Sen. Roger Wicker vs. Fmr. Gov. Ronnie Musgrove

Projection: Wicker +3 (Wicker 69%)

New Hampshire (R)
Sen. John Sununu vs. Fmr. Gov. Jeanne Shaheen

Projection: Shaheen +5.7 (85%) (pick-up)

New Mexico (OPEN) (R)
Rep. Steve Pearce vs. Rep. Tom Udall

Projection: Udall +18.4 (Udall 100%) (pick-up)

North Carolina (R)
Sen. Elizabeth Dole vs. State Sen. Kay Hagan

Projection: Hagan +2.2 (Hagan 65%) (pick-up)

Oregon (R)
Sen. Gordon Smith vs. State Rep. Jeff Merkley

Projection: Merkley +2.2 (Merkley 66%) (pick-up)

Virgina (OPEN) (R)
Fmr. Gov. Jim Gilmore vs. Fmr. Gov. John Warner

Projection: Warner +25.5 (100%) (pickup)

I hope Shays beats that douche Jim Himes.

Haven't seen any recent polling mmm