United States Elections - 2008 downticket races: Senate, so on.

I'll have a House update soon.

"Final" Predictions from Larry Sabato, Professor at the University of Virginia and Founder of The Crystal Ball

Senate
Democratic Caucus +7-8: 58-59D 41-42R

Alaska (R): Mayor Mark Begich will unseat Sen. Ted Stevens

Colorado (R) (OPEN): Rep. Mark Udall will defeat Fmr. Rep. Bob Schaffer

Georgia (R): The race between Sen. Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin will likely go to a Dec. 4 runoff

Louisiana (D): Sen. Mary Landrieu will win reelection over John Kennedy

Minnesota (R): Sen. Norm Coleman will win reelection over Al Franken

Mississippi (R): Sen. Roger Wicker will win election over Fmr. Gov. Ronnie Musgrove

New Hampshire (R): Fmr. Gov. Jeanne Shaheen will unseat Sen. John Sununu

New Mexico (R) (OPEN): Rep. Tom Udall will defeat Rep. Steve Pearce

North Carolina (R): State Sen. Kay Hagan will unseat Sen. Elizabeth Dole

Oregon (R): State Rep. Jeff Merkley will unseat Sen. Gordon Smith

Virginia (R) (OPEN): Fmr. Gov. John Warner will defeat Fmr. Gov. Jim Gilmore

Governors
Democrats 0 or +1: 28-29D 21-22R

Indiana (R): Gov. Mitch Daniels will win reelection over Fmr. Rep. Jill Long Thompson

Missouri (R): MO Attny. General Jay Nixon will defeat Rep. Kenny Hulshof

North Carolina (D): Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue vs. Pat McCrory - Toss-Up

House of Representatives
Democratic Conference +26-35: 262-271D 164-173R

Republican seats in play: 58
Holds: 20
AL-02 (OPEN)
AZ-03 (Shadegg)
CA-50 (Bilbray)
FL-13 (Buchanan)
IA-04 (Latham)
IL-18 (OPEN)
LA-07 (Boustany)
MO-06 (Graves)
MO-09 (OPEN)
NJ-05 (Garrett)
NV-02 (Heller)
OH-02 (Schimdt)
PA-06 (Gerlach)
PA-15 (Dent)
PA-18 (Murphy)
SC-01 (Brown)
TX-07 (Culberson)
TX-10 (McCaul)
VA-02 (Drake)
VA-05 (Goode)
WV-02 (Capito)

Toss-Ups: 9
FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart)
ID-01 (Sali)
IN-03 (Souder)
LA-04 (OPEN)
MD-01 (OPEN)
NE-02 (Esch)
NJ-07 (OPEN)
OH-01 (Chabot)
WY-AL (OPEN)

Democratic Pick-ups: 29
AK-AL (Young)
AZ-01 (OPEN)
CA-04 (OPEN)
CO-04 (Musgrave)
CT-04 (Shays)
FL-08 (Keller)
FL-21 (L. Diaz Balart)
FL-24 (Feeney)
IL-10 (Kirk)
IL-11 (OPEN)
KY-02 (OPEN)
MI-07 (Walberg)
MI-09 (Knollenberg)
MN-03 (OPEN)
MN-05 (Bachmann)
NC-08 (Hayes)
NJ-03 (OPEN)
NM-01 (OPEN)
NM-02 (OPEN)
NV-03 (Porter)
NY-13 (OPEN)
NY-25 (OPEN)
NY-26 (OPEN)
NY-29 (Kuhl)
OH-15 (OPEN)
Oh-16 (OPEN)
PA-03 (English)
VA-11 (OPEN)
WA-08 (Reichert)

Democratic seats in play: 33
Holds: 30
AL-05 (OPEN)
AZ-05 (Mitchell)
AZ-08 (Giffords)
CA-11 (McNerney)
CT-05 (Murphy)
GA-08 (Marshall)
GA-12 (Barrow)
IL-08 (Bean)
IL-14 (Foster)
IN-08 (Ellsworth)
IN-09 (Hill)
KS-02 (Boyda)
KS-03 (Moore)
KY-03 (Yarmuth)
LA-06 (Cazayoux)
MN-01 (Walz)
MS-01 (Childers)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
NH-02 (Hodes)
NY-19 (Hall)
NY-20 (Gillibrand)
NY-24 (Arcuri)
OH-18 (Space)
OR-05 (OPEN)
PA-04 (Altmire)
PA-08 (Murphy)
PA-10 (Carney)
PA-12 (Murtha)
TX-23 (Rodriguez)
WI-08 (Kagen)

Republican Pick-ups: 3
FL-16 (Mahoney)
PA-11 (Kanjorski)
TX-22 (Lampson)

Wow, the Minnesota senate race is wild. Franken seems to have lost by less than 500 votes, and they're now doing a recount. Crazy.

Originally posted by Strangelove
Being the political über geek that I am, I decided to make a thread highlighting the general elections of 2008. These include the Presidential election, Congressional elections, and Gubernatorial elections. Election Day is November 4, 2008

[b]President
George W. Bush is barred from seeking a 3rd term to the office of President of the United States by the 22nd Amendment. This election is notable in that it will be the first one since 1928 in which neither the incumbent President or Vice President is seeking the nomination.

Barring unforeseen circumstances, Sen. John McCain (AZ) will be the Republican nominee for President.

The Democratic nominee has yet to be chosen and will likely be chosen by the National Convention, but barring unforeseen circumstances it will either be Sen. Barack Obama (IL) or Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY). This year will mark the first nomination of an African-American or woman by a major party of the Presidency.

Senate
One-third of the Senate is up for election (33 seats), due to the staggering of terms. 2 Senate seats have special elections that will coincide with the general election (Mississippi and Wyoming). There are 35 races total. 5 Senators have declined to seek re-election, creating open seats. Color denotes the incumbent party.

Alabama: Incumbent Sen. Jeff Sessions is seeking a 3rd term. State Sen. Vivian Davis Figures will be the likely nominee of the Democratic party. Sessions is unlikely to lose the election.

Alaska: President pro tempore emeritus Sen. Ted Stevens is seeking an 8th term. Recent scandals related to Stevens' relations with oil companies could hurt his bid. Democratic candidates for the August 25th primary include Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich and Fmr. State Rep. Ray Metcalfe.

Arkansas: Incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor is assured reelection after Republicans failed to field a candidate for the primary.

Colorado (OPEN): Sen. Wayne Allard is retiring due to self-imposed term limits. The Democratic nominee is Rep. Mark Udall. The Republican nominee is Fmr. Rep. Bob Schaffer. Prediction sites consistently rate this as a pick-up for Democrats.

Delaware: Sen Joe. Biden is seeking a 7th term. Biden is heavily favored to win reelection.

Georgia: Sen. Saxby Chambliss is running for a 2nd term. The Democrats face a crowded primary of 7 candidates with the primary on June 15th. Chambliss is favored to win reelection.

Idaho (OPEN): Sen. Larry Craig is retiring after being charged with soliciting sex from an undercover police officer in a men's restroom. Current Lt.Gov. Jim Risch will be the likely Republican nominee, and the likely Democratic nominee will be Fmr.Rep. Larry LaRocco. The Republican nominee is favored to win election.

Illinois: Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin is heavily favored to win reelection. The Republican nominee is Steve Sauerberg.

Iowa: Sen. Tom Harkin is heavily favored to win reelection. The Republican face a three-way primary on June 3rd

Kansas: Sen. Pat Roberts is favored to win a 3rd term. Fmr. Rep. Jim Slattery will likely be the Democratic nominee.

Kentucky: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is seeking reelection. Democrats face a 7-candidate primary. Businessman Bruce Lunsford is the favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

Louisiana: Sen. Mary Landrieu is considered to be the only endangered Democratic incumbent. State Treasurer John Kennedy, the State Treasurer and a former Democrat will be the Republican nominee.

Maine: Sen. Susan Collins is being targeted as a Republican in a Democratic state. Rep. Tom Allen is the Democratic nominee. Predictions generally favor Collins, but race could become competitive.

Continues below... [/B]

Oh shit, you color coded each state according to it's political gender and everything. You deserve a cookie, dude. I am serious because that is some righteous, attention to detail. good on you 🍺

He's gay, they have it in them to just do that. You might as well congratulate a sparrow for flying.

Originally posted by Robtard
He's gay, they have it in them to just do that. You might as well congratulate a sparrow for flying.

I was really hoping for Mitch McConnel to be unseated.

Oh well, I guess a 58 seat majority is still good.

Originally posted by Robtard
He's gay, they have it in them to just do that. You might as well congratulate a sparrow for flying.

Originally posted by Strangelove
Funny

I've already thanked you before, but I really appreciate you doing this for us. You're awesome!

eventually I'll actually post the results haermm2

With one exception, all the winners of the downticket races have been finalized, so I'll post a list.

I'm almost certain no one else cares, so this is just for my own narcissism, I suppose.

The name listed with the state/district is the incoming Governor/Senator/Representative for the 111th Congress.

Governor
Democratic pick-up
MO: Jay Nixon

Senate
Democratic pick-ups
AK: Mark Begich
CO: Mark Udall
NH: Jeanne Shaheen
NM: Tom Udall
NC: Kay Hagan
OR: Jeff Merkley
VA: Mark Warner

Too Close to Call
Al Franken (DFL) vs. Sen. Norm Coleman (R)

House of Representatives
Democratic pick-ups
AL-2: Bobby Bright
AZ-1: Ann Kirkpatrick
CO-4: Betsy Markey
CT-4: Jim Himes
FL-8: Alan Grayson
FL-22: Suzanne Kosmas
ID-1: Walt Minnick
IL-11: Debbie Halvorson
MD-1: Frank Kratovil
MI-7: Mark Schauer
MI-9: Gary Peters
NV-3: Dina Titus
NJ-3: John Adler
NM-1: Martin Heinrich
NM-2: Harry Teague
NY-13: Michael McMahon
NY-26: Dan Maffei
NY-26: Eric Massa
NC-8: Larry Kissell
OH-1: Steve Driehaus
OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy
OH-16: John Boccieri
PA-3: Kathy Dahlkemper
PR-AL: Pedro Pierluisi
VA-2: Glenn Nye
VA-5: Tom Perriello
VA-11: Gerry Connolly

Republican pick-ups
FL-16: Tom Rooney
KS-2: Lynn Jenkins
LA-2: Ahn "Joseph" Cao
LA-6: Bill Cassidy
TX-22: Pete Olson

wow, still no descision on the Franken race?

Coleman maintains a lead of about 192 votes, but now the State Canvassing Board needs to review the 1,000+ ballots that were challenged for various reasons by both camps.

Also, the Board made a decision the other day that the potential 1,000+ absentee ballots that were wrongly rejected (usually due to human error) should be included in the final total.

thats reassuring at the very least

I mean, at least they are doing a proper recount. God it would be so hilarious if Franken won. It would be like the Democratic Schwarzenegger.

EDIT: 192 votes too, thats just insane

Here's a news article that explains it a little more thoroughly.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002998001

What's the final Democrat/Republican split in the senate?

I'm still celebrating giving one of our electoral votes to Obama. Nebraska is really a sea of red.

The Senate in the 111th Congress will be 56 Democrats, 40 Republicans, and 2 Independents that caucus with the Democrats, with Minnesota pending.

Depending on the outcome of the Minnesota recount, the Senate will either be 57D 40R 2I or 56D 41R 2I

According to estimates by the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Franken is now in the lead by about 78 votes.