Originally posted by Omega Vision
If the Republicans nominate Trump I'll be convinced they don't want to win the White House.
FiveThirtyEight has an article about how Walker has a chance, but unless things go quite unpredictably, I don't see Trump getting it.
I mean, it's such a chaotic mess that unpredictable *could* happen, but yea, it'd kinda be handing things over.
Originally posted by Surtur
Anyone think the ratings for the debates this year will be a lot higher?
Ooh yes.
I mean, last one was pretty fun, but this one? It looks like we're going to have Trump, Christie, Carson, and Cruz all in the same room together.
Compare to the Democratic one, where I suspect most of the people there are campaigning to be VP... and there's not that many people to begin with.
Q99, this is a great thread. Just like your stats lists, keep updating this thread.
But about the topic...
If Donald Trump wins the GOP primary, I will be quite sure that the GOP is done. I'll be looking for another party to take over as the major hitter in the coming years.
Let me better expand on that.
I know a gal who represents a very common GOP voter. She's Christian and conservative. Comes from an expensive college educated background and cares about economic, social, and foreign policy issues the most. She despises Donald Trump. She views him as a "scumbag and a womanizer." Let's see the GOP try to rally voters like her...I don't think it will happen.
Originally posted by Time-ImmemorialYes.
You honestly think people are going to elect Hilary who is in one scandal after another and her failure with Benghazzi lead to the death of a US Ambassador. Not to mention every other failure in her political career.
The only people who care about Benghazi and the e-mail scandal are people who would have never voted for her anyway.
Originally posted by dadudemon
Q99, this is a great thread. Just like your stats lists, keep updating this thread.But about the topic...
If Donald Trump wins the GOP primary, I will be quite sure that the GOP is done. I'll be looking for another party to take over as the major hitter in the coming years.
Let me better expand on that.
I know a gal who represents a very common GOP voter. She's Christian and conservative. Comes from an expensive college educated background and cares about economic, social, and foreign policy issues the most. She despises Donald Trump. She views him as a "scumbag and a womanizer." Let's see the GOP try to rally voters like her...I don't think it will happen.
Frankly, yea. Parties falling is rare, but it does happen, and I think of Trump runs, and fails hard, the GOP fragmenting is not unlikely, because every faction of the GOP can fairly rightly claim that the rest of the party not falling behind their candidate held lead to that- because most of the party isn't interested in supporting candidates of other party factions unless there's no other choice.
There used to be a saying, "Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line," but... the last two primaries have been the Republicans bickering over a variety of candidates, clearly wanting to fall in love, and certainly not doing a good job at falling in line until the last moment. The rifts within the party have increased, to the point where you can have so many candidates that someone like Trump can hold a solid lead.
Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
Trump would decimate Hilary and Bernie Sanders. So not really OV.You honestly think people are going to elect Hilary who is in one scandal after another and her failure with Benghazzi lead to the death of a US Ambassador. Not to mention every other failure in her political career.
No, her failure had nothing to do with the death of the US Ambassador. That happened due to a combination of standing long-term US policy not having sufficient guards in locations like that, the Ambassador being in too exposed a position, and nothing being nearby enough to get there in time even if Hillary had gotten on the phone personally and called every US base in range.
The 'Benghazi scandal' was the mess-up in reporting the situation to the US people after... and even then, it was people under her, not her, it did get sorted out, and investigations showed she wasn't involved with the problem. Investigations lead by Republicans said she did nothing wrong, directly and plainly.
And, frankly, the fact that so many Republicans are still relying on Benghazi and similar things which examination will show Hillary was not actually a cause of or responsible for, is their problem. They view her as a paper tiger with an achilles heel, but the achilles heel they keep on yelling at to attack isn't there, causing the attacks to bounce off again, and again, and again.
On the topic of more graphs, here's one that roughly shows the five major factions of the Republican party, and where the candidates fall on them:
Not all factions being made equal, of course- the moderates are pretty weak at the moment having been bleeding members for years, and the libertarians aren't as strong as the other three either.
Traditionally the way it goes, is the moderates and establishment fall in line behind the party's annoited candidate, and even if the other factions disagree, they can't agree on a single alternative. See Romney.
What makes things trickier is there's a buncha establishment candidates, with their own overlap advantages/disadvantages, splitting the vote.
Check this:
Rubio's pretty low when it comes to first picks for candidates... but he is a whole lot of people's second pick. So while he's low in the running now, if a couple minor candidates in his circle drop out, he's likely to improve substantially in the rankings, more-so than his competitors.
On the flip side, if that doesn't happens, then he's got two other major establishment candidates- Bush and Walker- using their edges in other circles to block his way.
Even though he's one of the most electable Republicans out there in the big game, he may thus have trouble getting traction in the primary.