The Economist has their review of the Trump tax plan, and compares it to Bush's.
With graphs!
"Mr Bush’s number crunchers reckoned his [Bush's] plan, which is modest in comparison, would reduce annual receipts by $376 billion, or about 7.5%, by 2025, before accounting for its effect on the economy."
The Endorsement Primary, i.e. the look at who representatives, senators, and governors of each party is backing, and often a key indicator of advantage (not the only one, but a major one).
Interesting Fiorina has picked up some endorsements, but neither Carson nor Trump has. It's not surprising that the outsider candidates are lower in this measure, indeed that's part of the appeal, but it is a bit that Fiorina managed to get some before those two. I wonder if she's going to be pushed as the outsider-that-insiders-can-get-along-with.
Rubio has surprisingly low, but he picked up 3 recently. Considering him normally having an above-average slot in the rankings (rarely first or second, but normally in the top 4), I'm surprised he has so few.
Ted Cruz has more than Rubio, and picked up one.
Jeb has his early lead, but it hasn't expanded recently, and I expect it's gonna stay that way, giving others the opportunity to pass him up.
Huckabee's gained ground, to my surprise, and is an impressive third place.
Rand Paul shows he's not out by picking up a representative, despite remaining closer to the bottom of the pack.
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Oh, and in polling news, the next-to-latest poll showed Trump's lead over Carson had almost vanished, while the latest showed it expanded. Neither are from poor poll places, so, basically just polling noise, no real movements.
I would not trust anything Bush says. Anything he says is a lie.
He's a career politician.
Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
I would not trust anything Bush says. Anything he says is a lie.He's a career politician.
The thing is, knowing how to be a politician is an actual skill-set that takes learning, which does help one do the job, and career politicians are often much better at passing policy that reflects their constituents than 'tourist' politicians from other areas (which is not to say all outsiders are bad at it, they do sometimes have quite useful skills and outside PoVs, but it's more roll of the dice, and the best outsiders are those who pick up the skills fast. A lot of the tea party candidates have not done so and basically been milestones that have weighed down their allies and been bad at accomplishing goals).
If Trump, Fiorina, or Carson win and want to do a good job, they'll have to become a career politician.
I'm not a fan of Jeb either, but I don't view being a politician as a sufficient reason to discount a candidate.
Oh, a bit that affects Hillary, *and* ties into what I was saying about career politicians- The Benghazi probes into her may have been politically compromised
Kevin McCarthy, majority leader and currently a top candidate to be Boehner's replacement, had said:
"Everybody thought Hillary Clinton was unbeatable, right?" McCarthy told Fox News on Tuesday. "But we put together a Benghazi special committee, a select committee. What are her (poll) numbers today? Her numbers are dropping."
And using an investigation committee as a partisan attack platform? Well, that's a big no-no.
An admission by a top Republican that the heavy push on that was a hit-job paints Hillary in a different light.
And the career-politician part is, for someone of his position McCarthy is surprisingly inexperienced (if he is the next speaker, he'd be the least-experienced in over a century), and thus made an admission that a longer experienced politician, even one like Boehner or Jeb Bush, wouldn't make.
Originally posted by psmith81992
What's not to like about Jeb? He's a good speaker, obviously smarter than his brother, is comfortable out there/etc?
There are some issues, particularly with how his tax plan is the same as his brothers, which has been shown to be a huge misstep.
But if I had to choose someone it'd probably be Jeb...or maybe Rubio, though he's been a bit of a tool lately, or maybe Kasich, who I don't know as much about, but he seems more reasonable than most. They are of course all vastly compromised by the extremism that's so rampant within their party now (the old, Reagan would never be a Republican today thing).
Originally posted by psmith81992
What's not to like about Jeb? He's a good speaker, obviously smarter than his brother, is comfortable out there/etc?
Ahh... I don't think I agree with the second one any more.
When he made a flub talking about hispanic immigrants in less-than-flattering ways, he back-peddled.... and said, "No, wait, I meant Asian immigrants!". ABC news
Who, when called on saying something offensive, just decides to re-direct which group they piss off rather than apologizing or retracting?
He's also been incredibly underwhelming in all the debates. Sure, he may be comfortable, but he also doesn't seem very engaged, and came out the worse repeatedly, not just compared to the likes of Trump, but also next to Rubio who was a much more impressive speaker in my book.
Also, just on a policy level, I'm unimpressed with his tax plan. A 7.5% cut in revenue, mostly due to cuts on the rich, does not strike me as a good idea.
And, speaking as a 'I don't want any Republican candidate to win,' Democrat, I'm not as worried about him as I am Rubio. Though I do admit I don't think those two would burn the country down.
Originally posted by psmith81992
The problem is the right is now more right and the left is more left. There's very little centrism going on today. Reagan may not be a republican today and Kennedy wouldn't be a democrat.
I don't think that's really true for the left. Obama is not much more left than Clinton was, if at all. They just seem a lot more left, cause the right has moved.
Originally posted by Bardock42
Do you think Hillary Clinton is that left? Like I wouldn't even say she's more left than Obama.
And Obama's fairly centrist to begin with.
Hillary and Barack are pretty close, with Biden right around them too, and Sanders a few miles to the left of either. Heck, here's a right-wing anti-Obama opinion piece from '12 about how he's too left for her, so that says where that group views 'em, at least.
She certainly isn't *far* left, to be sure.
The Democrats, starting with Bill, have used the tactic of crowding the center to make the Republicans go right to differentiate themselves more, at least in term of presidential candidates. Rather than contesting edge voters, they've aimed to mobilize the base and get more strongly conservative voters to the poll, while the Dems have focused heavily on trying to get those in the middle, especially in areas like the hispanic vote (which tends to be fairly religious and not far-left in the Sanders sense, which is why he's doing weakly with them), which has shifted from being highly contested under GWB, to being won by the Dems by a wider margin each of the last two elections.
I do get the impression that Long Pig just tries to take the worst stance on most things because he thinks it's funny.
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Back on Jeb Bush, thing like this are why I don't view him as 'the smart Bush brother' any more. George W. Bush was much too savvy for that kind of thing.
Honestly, Jeb running vs Hillary would be a great matchup for Hillary. He undercuts any 'dynasty' complaints, he makes comments like that, he's not very fired up...
Originally posted by Q99
I do get the impression that Long Pig just tries to take the worst stance on most things because he thinks it's funny.---
Back on Jeb Bush, thing like this are why I don't view him as 'the smart Bush brother' any more. George W. Bush was much too savvy for that kind of thing.
Honestly, Jeb running vs Hillary would be a great matchup for Hillary. He undercuts any 'dynasty' complaints, he makes comments like that, he's not very fired up...
Yea I liked him after the first debate but he no longer gets me excited (including sexually). I'm no longer confident about his ability against hilary.
http://washington.cbslocal.com/2015/09/23/ben-carson-big-bang-evolution/
Kind of a shame, considering his entire platform for election is basically "I'm the smartest guy in the room".
Originally posted by Tzeentch
http://washington.cbslocal.com/2015/09/23/ben-carson-big-bang-evolution/Kind of a shame, considering his entire platform for election is basically "I'm the smartest guy in the room".
Have to wonder if he actually believes that or if he was advised to take this path in order to cater to the crowd.