General Primary Discussion Thread

Started by Q99212 pages
Originally posted by Digi
The slim remaining hope for Sanders involved Biden entering. So yeah, this locks things up for Hillary (though they were pretty well locked up before anyway).

Right, she was still double-digit ahead at the closest, just within hypothetical striking distance.


He held off to make sure Hillary wasn't going to sputter out of the gates. She didn't, so he's free to retire in peace, which I'm sure is what he wanted.

And not only didn't sputter, but did quite well, with a strong foe like Sanders no less.

... you know, I'm way too easy to bait into responding to socks.

Ask an actual economics thing that I can hammer into the ground with graphs and quotes and direct evidence, and I'll post before checking and realizing, "Wait, that's obviously a sock that'll get deleted anyway."

I'll try and be better about that.

Originally posted by Q99
... you know, I'm way too easy to bait into responding to socks.

Ask an actual economics thing that I can hammer into the ground with graphs and quotes and direct evidence, and I'll post before checking and realizing, "Wait, that's obviously a sock that'll get deleted anyway."

I'll try and be better about that.

so explain the 0% interest rates and QE with zero interest rates in a growth economy.

Also please explain why we have HUGE growth in the stock markets but no growth in middle income earnings and how Obama corrected the to big to fail with the current state of the (3 major banks bigger then before.)

Originally posted by snowdragon
so explain the 0% interest rates and QE with zero interest rates in a growth economy.

Those were both done to assist in the recovery which, while substantial, is not complete, though neither is necessary any more.

Just because something starts recovering, you don't turn them off immediately. That's why several other countries were in a yo-yo recession after all.

Heck, look at Japan's lost decade, which was, well, a decade of 'spend, start to grow, stop recovery efforts, stagnate again, repeat,' til they finally learned not to turn it off.

We are at a point where we can safely turn off both of those, but they were quite helpful tools in getting to this point.

Sidenote, the helpfulness of tools like these are why I have an issue with Bernie. He wants to turn more of the Federal Reserve's power over to Congress, which, if had been the case during this recession/recovery, would have meant definitely no QE to help stimulate things.


Also please explain why we have HUGE growth in the stock markets but no growth in middle income earnings and how Obama corrected the to big to fail with the current state of the (3 major banks bigger then before.)

Obviously, he didn't fix the bank problems, which would require congress's approval and is a big issue right now in the debates. Indeed, he hasn't been able to do much in the way of new policies- aside from appointment of Fed Chairperson who would continue economic stimulation efforts- since his first term, where he did manage to get some big policies through then. Though conversely, he's also done his best to prevent austerity or similar measures from handicapping the recovery, as it has many others, and 'preventing the recovery from being kneecaped' is pretty vital. Never said he fixed everything, never will, but he did keep us on a recovery where the other side's policies in the same place wouldn't, which is what was asked.

Note, we do have growth in middle income, just not as great as the markets would suggest. This, btw, is a lot of what the talk on raising minimum wage and similar policies is about in the latest debates.

Here is an article for you from August following the jobs report release then.

According to Friday’s report, average hourly earnings in August were 2.2 percent higher than a year earlier; other measures give slightly different numbers, but they all tell a story of wage growth around 2 percent per year, which is faster than the rate of inflation.

So, slow, could be better, but still in the positive. And this is definitely an area where people want to do more.

Additionally, one thing about the original stimulus was the Republicans insisted on more of it going to upper-income tax breaks rather than directly to jobs, which would've helped in this very area, as would the second stimulus he attempted to get passed. So, the intent was there, but only minor success. Not failure, mind you, but it's there.

Now that the economic has more money in it, that must be put to use in the very problems you name, and there are policies that can do things about that. Most of these policies are the ones that are the very New Deal Esque ones being complained about- services that help the poor and middle class, which are themselves paying jobs. It's worked before, it worked for the 50s and 60s, let's go back to what worked, shall we?

Actually, lemme step back and explain something for those who don't know what the QE we're talking about is. Quantitative Easing is a policy the Federal Reserve, or other national central bank but the Fed in the US's case, can do.

To take from wikipedia, "A central bank implements quantitative easing by buying financial assets from commercial banks and other financial institutions, thus raising the prices of those financial assets and lowering their yield, while simultaneously increasing the money supply."

In short, they're buying stuff from the banks

You see, what it basically boils down to is in order to make an economy work better, what it, like most things, needs is more money.

And the stimulus provided that, in solid quantity. Enough that 3.3 million jobs were created by it- and these are, like, construction jobs, do stuff jobs, things that add money at a variety of places- this helps especially because many of these sectors were the hardest hit. Now, that's just the part of the stimulus going to projects, a fair amount went to tax cuts- which, if they didn't go around and spend it, didn't help much, but still, better than nothing. Also, not the stimulus itself, but the auto-maker bailout, similar thing, it gave money to prevent companies from going under... and saved an estimate 1.5 million jobs (thus, between the two, we're at 4.8 mil jobs, got it? Good). It costs money- temporarily, we were paid back for the bailout, but it causes economic activity and it prevents the lack of jobs from dragging things further south and causing more job loss.

And while the effects of that were felt over the next few years, it, obviously did not last through the whole recession. Even all that? Not enough, just part of the patch on the ship.

So! You need more money and you can't pass a second stimulus. The recovery will slow, even stall, without it.

You're screwed, right?

But, that's where Qualitative Easing comes in! With Obama's blessing, the Fed did the only form of stimulus available- it bought assets from the banks, got money into the system, and increased the value of assets by reducing their yield.

Now, you see the problem here, right? Right, that's going through the banks. It is helping the economy, helping things recover, preventing businesses from going under, but it's not providing much in the way of jobs to lower and middle class people, not directly, and thus not helping their wages as much. And once the Stimulus ran out, we had to make due with QE, which is why those areas are lagging behind in recovery- though, as noted, still growing.

But even so, that's a matter of, 'we were able to get out of the recession, half of the good way, half of the kludge way, which is a heck of a lot better than being in a recession.'

"But wait, Q, even with this, you said Republican economics are horrible and yet even you admit Reagan's performance is in Obama's tier! If it's so bad, what's up with that?"

Ah! This is where Reagan was smart.

You see, Ronald Reagan, for all his talk of tax cuts, did not do austerity. Not like the modern Republicans are pushing.

No, what did his do while cutting taxes, was increase spending, in the guise of defense projects. The famous SDI/Star Wars project, new F/A-18s and other equipment, etc. etc.. The defense budget under Reagan got up to 200 billion per year higher than it was right before him (800 billion stimulus? 200 a year x a number of years, calculate what's actually more expensive!).

Sooo what we had was... money going into the economy. Though through the defense industry, usually the high-end R&D groups, not low and middle class jobs, so again, we had a widening gap between rich and poor during that recovery too. Without the opposed congress, but what he did was he got the 'Fiscally Conservative' party to pay for the biggest stimulus project since the WW2, but since the stimulus was going to jets and satellites, he got them on board.

Inefficient money-wise, and again not targeted in a way that helped very evenly, but it worked. Money got back into the economy, things recovered.

And that's why Reagan had a reasonable recovery under his term of office.

So on the one hand, you have Obama start out with the simple and effective 'hire people to build infrastructure and do various jobs,' but have to fall back on the Federal Reserve working through the banks, and Reagan who worked by, effectively, propping up the economy with one really huge addition to one industry, the defensive industry.

And then on the other hand you have people who think the answer to a recession or depression is to cut spending, even though it always backfires, and it's not what Reagan did, if in a round-about way. In the end, Reagan's recovery worked because it avoided austerity, Obama's recovery worked because he avoided austerity, and if someone got power now and implemented austerity, while we're healed enough for it to not be super-critical, it'd still wound a shaky economy... as long as it was prevented from being *too* big of cuts. And a number of the Republican plans? Go for some really massive cuts. Long story short, bad idea.

Some day, maybe we'll have a President who's allowed to do a targeted infrastructure-and-services based stimulus throughout a recovery and thus avoid these uneven recoveries of Reagan and Obama, or the dip in the middle of FDR's "Your New Deal is working great? Let's put a pause button on that!", but it hasn't happened yet. Still, we can hope!

Originally posted by enraged nutter
*comment deleted*

nobody cares. get a job.

How the Media blew the Biden story

Quick version: The media gets more milage out of Hillary vs Biden than they would a race sans Biden, so they, obviously, really wanted it to happen, and thus allowed themselves to be convinced by rumors and 'inside sources'.

Also, we have numbers on post-debate bounce for the Democratic candidates. I'm surprised Bernie didn't gain more, he got a mixed amount depending on which polls.

None of the others are much affected- I'd expect a little bump to the others, at least O'Malley, due to awareness, but I guess not.

I wish every American citizen had the right to receive a million dollars from the government once in their lifetime. Everyone could have decent housing, an automobile or two and create new small or large American companies. But I'm a dreamer.

Originally posted by Facee
I wish every American citizen had the right to receive a million dollars from the government once in their lifetime. Everyone could have decent housing, an automobile or two and create new small or large American companies. But I'm a dreamer.

Shut up, socialist.

Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
Shut up, socialist.

👆

Soon.

His hair is better then yours btw. You require more gel.

😂

Biden got us all..

http://mediaequalizer.com/brian-maloney/2015/10/was-biden-running-all-along

News that could be just as bid as Biden not-running:Lincoln Chafee's out.

Or, y'know, completely expected.

This leaves it just as Hillary/Bernie/O'Malley.

I hope O'Malley hangs in for a bit to keep debates interesting, and I will say that while Webb and Chafee didn't have a chance, they did help make the first debate more varied. Especially Webb.

Originally posted by Q99
News that could be just as bid as Biden not-running:Lincoln Chafee's out.

Or, y'know, completely expected.

This leaves it just as Hillary/Bernie/O'Malley.

I hope O'Malley hangs in for a bit to keep debates interesting, and I will say that while Webb and Chafee didn't have a chance, they did help make the first debate more varied. Especially Webb.

Well, and Lessig.

Originally posted by Q99
News that could be just as bid as Biden not-running:Lincoln Chafee's out.

Or, y'know, completely expected.

This leaves it just as Hillary/Bernie/O'Malley.

I hope O'Malley hangs in for a bit to keep debates interesting, and I will say that while Webb and Chafee didn't have a chance, they did help make the first debate more varied. Especially Webb.


SNL had it right then with Chafee when he said "goodbye forever" at the end of the debate.

Carson leading in Iowa.

I see a trump/Carson ticket.

Bush struggling, slashing pay, travel.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-10-23/jeb-bush-orders-across-the-board-pay-cuts-for-struggling-campaign

Clinton v. Trump would be pretty great, if somewhat scary.

Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
Bush struggling, slashing pay, travel.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-10-23/jeb-bush-orders-across-the-board-pay-cuts-for-struggling-campaign

Yep. Second source

Jeb Bush's campaign insists the wholesale restructuring announced Friday is a merely a course correction, a reallocation of resources and heightened focus on New Hampshire. But for a growing number of Bush's supporters, frustrated by his prolonged slump and poor performance, the latest campaign shake-up is looking like more of a death knell.

Starting on Nov. 1, the campaign will cut payroll costs by 40 percent, downsize its Miami headquarters by more than 50 percent, reduce travel costs by 20 percent and cut 45 percent of spending on things other than media and voter contact. Even if those moves ease financial pressures on Bush's large campaign operation, they only reinforce the prevailing narrative about a candidate, not long ago viewed as a front-runner, in freefall.

Things are definitely looking badfor Jeb. Cutting payroll? That costs loyalty.

If there's an establishment candidate who wins or at least is one of the later contenders, I think it's gonna be Rubio.