Originally posted by Omega Vision
Who do y'all think will be the next to drop?I'd say Santorum, Graham, or Jindal are the most likely.
As for the first "major" candidate to drop, my money's on Scott Walker. He's basically become irrelevant since Trump started firing up.
Walker doesn't directly compete with Trump niche-wise compared to some, he's more head-to-head with Jeb- if he can do better in a second debate than he did the first, I think he can stay in for some time.
There was a time he was topping Jeb after all, it's just his non-presence the first time out hurt him.
That said, if he follows up his weak performance with another weak performance, yea, he may be the first candidate who's been a frontrunner to leave.
Oh, Just bumped into an article basically agreeing with you.
Or more specifically on how candidates with an early spike that fades like Walker rarely recover- it's basically a stage of trying out, and even if the ones who moved on decide they don't like their new candidate, they're more likely to move in to a third than to move back.
"Candidates like Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, others who have had a seasonal high, especially in the summer season, then find it a very difficult journey to get back to the top," said Bob Vander Plaats, an influential Iowa conservative, in an interview Friday. "People look at them initially, they went with them, then they found a better option and they leave with that better option. [If they leave] Trump, will they go back to Walker, or will they go to, say, a Ted Cruz? Historically it's fair to say they're going to look for somebody else."
Originally posted by Omega Vision
In six months, I could see the field narrowing to just six or seven candidates. My money's on Trump, Bush, Carson, Cruz, Rubio, Fiorina, and Christie.
Once the primaries actually start they'll drop out like flies (if flies dropped out). I assume by Mid-March it's 2 maybe 3 people.
Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
Walker is finished
Well, *probably*, but not certainly. A race this big can be unpredictable, we don't know what developments could occur. If Jeb self destructs, let's say, then that's a lot of establishment-minded people who could head in Walker's direction.
Christie has a fat chance.
Interestingly, he has his share of endorsements, so he's got more support on the political side (more than almost all the competitors, even much higher polling ones) than he does on the public side.
After the bridge scandal though, he does not strike me as a strong candidate. Heck, he's below Kasich.
So, I basically agree with you on both, but do note we're just talking 'probably' here.
Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
Christie has a fat chance.
Makes you wonder though where he'd be if Bridgegate had never happened.
Christie at least has *some* support, and his personality really doesn't lend to quitting easily, so it'll likely be money-based for him.
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Some big images of the rankings per state:
It's interesting that all the 'establishment' candidates (Bush, Rubio, Walker, Kasich, Christie) *combined* are polling worse than just-Romney was last time.
The party powerbrokers are not showing a lot of control of this race so far.
The Republican electorate seems to just be disillusioned with the party and its insiders. That's basically the beginning of the end of any serious political party. It's like the parties have switched places. It used to be the Democratic Party where everyone was jockeying viciously for place while in the GOP there was some understanding that while candidates could squabble, there would be a chosen candidate and everyone else would fall in line. That may not happen this time.
I'll admit now, I had no idea Trump's momentum would last this long, and I'm probably eating my words from a few months ago. At this point I'm just fascinated to see what happens next. I still can't imagine President Trump (not with the Latino vote out of his reach), but Candidate Trump has become a realistic possibility.
Originally posted by Omega Vision
The Republican electorate seems to just be disillusioned with the party and its insiders. That's basically the beginning of the end of any serious political party. It's like the parties have switched places. It used to be the Democratic Party where everyone was jockeying viciously for place while in the GOP there was some understanding that while candidates could squabble, there would be a chosen candidate and everyone else would fall in line. That may not happen this time.I'll admit now, I had no idea Trump's momentum would last this long, and I'm probably eating my words from a few months ago. At this point I'm just fascinated to see what happens next. I still can't imagine President Trump (not with the Latino vote out of his reach), but Candidate Trump has become a realistic possibility.
Right. He still has some major hurdles, but it definitely has surpassed my expectations as well.
To me, I was still remembering when Obama so casually slapped down his last attempt, and I thought the other Republican candidates wouldn't have much more trouble doing so.
But toss in the two biggest competitors at the debate underperforming, and Trump has his foot more than in the door.
Oh, here is a batch of interesting charts.
A lot of the current candidates were governors during the financial crash and recovery and the times before it.
FiveThirtyEight did a calculation of what the neutral/'expected' performance would be for their state, and if the individual candidates underperformed or overperformed:
Jeb did a bit better than average in the boom time, but recovery wise did nothing out of line with the expected. Walker's pretty much exactly on the expectations line. Huckabee's performance sucked.
Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
You do know that Trump and Hilary are tied now right? In a head to head poll for the general..
Sure. Well, the CNN poll. ABC puts Hillary at +3, and the Survey USA one is Trump +5 and only slightly older.
Plus like a lot say, it's a marathon, not a spring.
Neither Trump nor Hillary are anywhere near panic positions, to state the obvious. If you're in first place in either party, you're in good shape.
Heck, I'm not even sure if Jeb is panicking yet, and he's a distant third in the Republicans.... what matters is once state primaries start.
Saw a poll that indicated that up to 60% of Republican voters have yet to make a decision on which candidate to back. If this is accurate, then the support for Trump and Carson early on may only indicate their popularity among the more politically proactive rather than indicating solid strength and staying power when the primaries start and shit gets real.
Originally posted by Omega Vision
Saw a poll that indicated that up to 60% of Republican voters have yet to make a decision on which candidate to back. If this is accurate, then the support for Trump and Carson early on may only indicate their popularity among the more politically proactive rather than indicating solid strength and staying power when the primaries start and shit gets real.
Right, this is the preseason, not the final four, so to speak.
Originally posted by Omega Vision
Saw a poll that indicated that up to 60% of Republican voters have yet to make a decision on which candidate to back. If this is accurate, then the support for Trump and Carson early on may only indicate their popularity among the more politically proactive rather than indicating solid strength and staying power when the primaries start and shit gets real.
This is assuming people want to see another bush in office, because its either going to be trump or bush, and people are tired of politicians.