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"In answering a question about police shootings of young black men, Clinton said, “One out of three African American men may well end up going to prison. That’s the statistic.”
But that statistic is outdated — a 2003 projection based on 2001 incarceration rate data. And since then, the incarceration rate for black males has declined.
The Clinton campaign did not get back to us when we asked for the source of her claim. However, she is likely referring to a 2013 report by the Sentencing Project that said, “If current trends continue, one of every three black American males born today can expect to go to prison in his lifetime, as can one of every six Latino males — compared to one of every seventeen white males.”
That report generated stories such as one in the Huffington Post that carried the headline, “1 In 3 Black Males Will Go To Prison In Their Lifetime, Report Warns.”
But the Sentencing Project, which advocates for “reforms in sentencing policy,” did not produce that 1-in-3 estimate. It was taken word for word from a 2011 report called “Addressing Racial Disparities in Incarceration.” And that 2011 report based its estimate on an August 2003 report by the Bureau of Justice Statistics.
The BJS report projected that 32.2% of black males born in 2001 “are expected to go to prison during their lifetime, if current incarceration rates remain unchanged.”
But the incarceration rate for black males has changed. In fact, it has declined since 2001.
The Bureau of Justice Statistics annually produces reports on incarceration rates by race. The incarceration rate for black males was 3,535 per 100,000, or 3.5%, in 2001. (See Table 16.) The most recent report put that figure at 2,724 per 100,000 black males, or 2.7%, in 2014. (See Table 10.)
This is not to discount Clinton’s larger point that black males are overrepresented in state and federal prisons.
The latest BJS report said, “On December 31, 2014, black males had higher imprisonment rates than prisoners of other races or Hispanic origin within every age group. Imprisonment rates for black males were 3.8 to 10.5 times greater at each age group than white males and 1.4 to 3.1 times greater than rates for Hispanic males.”
But the 1-in-3 statistic that she passed off as a fact is outdated and is not based on current incarceration rates."