How good will a Trump Presidency actually be?

Started by Surtur20 pages

Originally posted by The Ellimist
Which have historically been highly reliable. 538/Sam Wang were able to predict 2008 and 2012 almost perfectly, for instance. This election had one of the highest polling errors in history; it was an aberration.

That they can make mistakes doesn't make it idiotic to trust them; that's like saying we shouldn't drive cars because there's a minuscule chance of dying in a car crash.

Wait, did you just say we shouldn't drive cars because there is a small chance of a car crash?!?!

YouTube video

Originally posted by Surtur
Wait, did you just say we shouldn't drive cars because there is a small chance of a car crash?!?!

😐

Uh, no, I was ridiculing it.

Again, we can see how Trump won. 👆

Bro I posted the shifty dog eye clip so you'd know it wasn't a serious comment.

I mean he's a dog..and he's up to something! I don't know what it is, but it can't be very good.

Originally posted by The Ellimist
😐

Uh, no, I was ridiculing it.

Again, we can see how Trump won. 👆

So did you not get that he was joking?

I'm not saying the joke was funny, I didn't think it was, but did the fact that Surtur was joking fly over your head?

I mean the shifty eyes! He is definitely up to no good.

Originally posted by NemeBro
So did you not get that he was joking?

I'm not saying the joke was funny, I didn't think it was, but did the fact that Surtur was joking fly over your head?

I suspected it, but I've had serious discussions where he's blatantly misinterpreted basic sentence structures before. With him, it's hard to tell.

Originally posted by The Ellimist
I suspected it, but I've had serious discussions where he's blatantly misinterpreted basic sentence structures before. With him, it's hard to tell.

I know it is hard to tell, just like it was hard for you to tell who would win this election.

Originally posted by Surtur
I know it is hard to tell, just like it was hard for you to tell who would win this election.

True, I should have predicted a Trump victory,

Spoiler:
like you totally did.
Originally posted by Xyzheretolaugh
Reminder: time immemorial was right about everything.

That means:

-Obama's going to declare marshal law and stop the election
-Clinton died and was replaced by an android
-Trump would have lost the election due to fraud but then been elected after the fraud was exposed later in Dec/Jan

I better clear my schedule

Originally posted by The Ellimist
True, I should have predicted a Trump victory,

Spoiler:
like you totally did.

I didn't predict it, but then I didn't run around telling everyone how smart I am either. Nor did I make topics specifically to show people just how smart I am or rub it in their faces.

Perhaps there is a lesson there.

You see the problem with having a huge ego is..everyone loses eventually, at one time or another. When that happens, the larger the ego..the harder the fall.

Originally posted by Surtur
I didn't predict it, but then I didn't run around telling everyone how smart I am either. Nor did I make topics specifically to show people just how smart I am or rub it in their faces.

Perhaps there is a lesson there.

You see the problem with having a huge ego is..everyone loses eventually, at one time or another. When that happens, the larger the ego..the harder the fall.

You might actually notice that I don't show this "big ego" off when I'm debating, say, Tempest or ILS, however infrequently that happens. That's because they can engage in interesting conversations and whatnot.

But since you usually respond to my attempts at that with trolling and spiting, I just get smug.

Originally posted by The Ellimist
You might actually notice that I don't show this "big ego" off when I'm debating, say, Tempest or ILS, however infrequently that happens. That's because they can engage in interesting conversations and whatnot.

But since you usually respond to my attempts at that with trolling and spiting, I just get smug.

I know, that's why it's funnier when you fail.

Originally posted by Surtur
I know, that's why it's funnier when you fail.

You see, even if I am arrogant about being smart - which I only am when the other side is being a d*ck - I actually am pretty smart, so there's really no disconnect.

I mean, standardized test scores, academic ability, etc. are clear enough to me that getting an election wrong doesn't really hurt that. 👆

You are right man, you ARE pretty smart. So how much did you win in bets again?

Originally posted by Surtur
You are right man, you ARE pretty smart.

No need for sarcasm; if you were perfectly honest with yourself and removed the obvious prejudice you have against me, you'd acknowledge that yeah, it's obvious from my posts that I am.


So how much did you win in bets again?

Lost about $100, so not a terrible amount.

There's different aspects he may have some impact on or none at all providing he actually tries to do what he campaigned on.

Politically he says he wants to end lobbyists influencing politicians. Given that most representatives fund their campaigns and lives from taking lobbyists money then he'll get no support from either side on that. Not to mention that once he's not president he'll be back to lobbying as well.

2. There's not going to be a wall. He could and should stimulate economic growth by embarking on large infrastructure projects but given how much needs to be put into the road, rail and water infrastructure he'd probably be best to do that.

3. Trade. He'll be a disaster. His cutting corporation taxes to try and get US companies to stay in the US coupled with saying foreign companies with have to pay substantial levies to sell to the US means countries will stop selling to or buying from America. China dominates raw materials needed for much of the US manufacturing. They'll simply add their own tariffs like they've done in the past so US companies can't compete.

4. Foreign relations. It'll be a mixed bag. He'll have strong relationships with the UK (Well parts of it), Israel, France after they inevitably elect Marine Le Pen, Russia but probably not the rest of Europe or any southern American countries.

5. Middle East/Islamic terrorism. Probably a disaster. His Instinct is to send in troops. You end up with more destabilised countries probably including Pakistan and possibly turkey and Jordan plus a few more African countries.

6. The environment. Totally ****ed. His presidency will encompass the tipping point of heading towards +5 degree Celsius increases by the end of the century. The Paris treaty was literally the last chance. Even with it fully ratified the 2 degree increase target is already gone. His plan is to renege entirely on the Paris treaty and to hugely increase the extraction and burning of fossil fuels.

Originally posted by The Ellimist
No need for sarcasm; if you were perfectly honest with yourself and removed the obvious prejudice you have against me, you'd acknowledge that yeah, it's obvious from my posts that I am.

I'm sure you are.

Lost about $100, so not a terrible amount.

I don't know, Lex Luthor stole 40 cakes, that's 4 tens, and that is terrible. Now 100 is like..10 tens. I think I've given you a lot to think about.

Depends.

If Trump does anything, probably as bad as any other presidency.

If he does nothing, then about as good as any other presidency. 😉

Originally posted by jaden101
There's different aspects he may have some impact on or none at all providing he actually tries to do what he campaigned on.

Politically he says he wants to end lobbyists influencing politicians. Given that most representatives fund their campaigns and lives from taking lobbyists money then he'll get no support from either side on that. Not to mention that once he's not president he'll be back to lobbying as well.

2. There's not going to be a wall. He could and should stimulate economic growth by embarking on large infrastructure projects but given how much needs to be put into the road, rail and water infrastructure he'd probably be best to do that.

3. Trade. He'll be a disaster. His cutting corporation taxes to try and get US companies to stay in the US coupled with saying foreign companies with have to pay substantial levies to sell to the US means countries will stop selling to or buying from America. China dominates raw materials needed for much of the US manufacturing. They'll simply add their own tariffs like they've done in the past so US companies can't compete.

4. Foreign relations. It'll be a mixed bag. He'll have strong relationships with the UK (Well parts of it), Israel, France after they inevitably elect Marine Le Pen, Russia but probably not the rest of Europe or any southern American countries.

5. Middle East/Islamic terrorism. Probably a disaster. His Instinct is to send in troops. You end up with more destabilised countries probably including Pakistan and possibly turkey and Jordan plus a few more African countries.

6. The environment. Totally ****ed. His presidency will encompass the tipping point of heading towards +5 degree Celsius increases by the end of the century. The Paris treaty was literally the last chance. Even with it fully ratified the 2 degree increase target is already gone. His plan is to renege entirely on the Paris treaty and to hugely increase the extraction and burning of fossil fuels.

Nice assessment.

Anyway seems like the majority are predicting his presidency will be negative one, good to see that even here common sense prevails.