Originally posted by Surtur
But years ago a mere $40 in savings was praised as a big deal by Nancy.But hey, that's cool. Lets just simplify things about this. By the time Trumps term ends in 2020 will this tax plan have helped a good number of americans or harmed a good number?
Why only go up to 2020? That's only two years. Hardly enough time for the effects to really make their way through the economy. Most of the studies look at it in the post-2020 period because that's when the personal cuts expire and the mask comes off. And even before that, the effects on the economy are
tiny, and "potentially negative" by 2020 as per Goldman Sachs economists (the bank that literally has insiders within the Trump administration and probably has every reason to be positive).
http://uk.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-reform-bill-goldman-sachs-text-analysis-2017-12
And to clarify what I meant by 'potentially' in my other post, there are a few think-tanks that are more optimistic about this tax bill. However, even right-wing organizations like the Tax Foundation don't have the bill meeting its targets for growth, and they don't fully account for the effects of increased debt. And ultimately, the expiry of the personal cuts+chained CPI make it inevitable that many people will be paying more tax, because the chained CPI measure moves people into higher tax brackets. Read this for more:
http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-chained-cpi-tax-bill-20171121-story.html
What Republicans really like about the chained CPI is that it tends to show a lower inflation rate than the alternative, typically by 0.3 percentage point a year. The difference pencils out to significant dollars: Changing the inflation index immediately would raise about $125 billion over the next decade and nearly $500 billion in the decade after that, according to the Tax Policy Center.Most of that money would come out of the pockets of middle- and working-class taxpayers. Most important, it would slow inflation adjustments to tax brackets. This would hurt those taxpayers because more of them would move into higher tax brackets purely because of inflation in their wages. High-income taxpayers who already pay the top tax rate wouldn’t be affected the same way.