US Midterms 2018

So how do we think the midterms are going to go down? Right now, Democrats are leading about 5-10 points on the generic ballot, which should be around about enough to retake the House. However, gerrymandering probably means they'll need to have a popular vote margin closer to 10 to be safe.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

The Senate is rightly seen as a difficult map. But there is some hope for the Dems. Red state Democrats like Heidi Heitkamp (ND) and Joe Manchin (WV) are in some danger but should pull through as long as the Democrats are hitting 2012+ margins. And some states once thought as unwinnable could be coming into play. In Tenneesee, the former Democratic governor who won around two thirds of the vote when he presided over the state is leading according to a recent poll. Texas is seeing an insurgency in the form of Beto O'Rourke, but the odds there are admittedly stacked heavily against the Dems due to Republicans leading heavily in party-ID and the reliance on Democrats for urban centers like Austin and lack of support in rural areas. Both seats in Mississippi are up for grabs, but there would need to be serious African-American turnout and Republican blunders for them to lose either of these seats. As it happens, a neo-confederate is actually vying for the Republican nomination, so I wouldn't write off an upset. But only in the seat that nominates the crazy.

All in all, however, I'd probably put Democratic odds of retaking the Senate at around 20-30%. For the House, though, it's more like 70%. The special election results thus far would suggest a considerably more optimistic picture, but it's uncertain whether the conditions in special elections could be replicated, what with the incumbency effect and all. But given Trump's approval, I can't see how this won't be some sort of wave for Democrats.

wow you got specific. tsunami imo.

Vox done a good article on Democrat odds in the House.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/21/16803050/latest-2018-midterms-polling-extremely-good-democrats

But if these generic ballot numbers hold up — or even moderate a bit — Democrats will have more than enough targets of GOP-held House seats to make a takeover look very plausible.

Republicans currently have a 241-seat majority, and Democrats need to pick up, on net, 24 seats to flip the balance of power. That’s the magic number: 24.

To start off, already there are 23 House Republicans representing districts Hillary Clinton won in 2016. It’s true that these Republicans managed to hold on then, but still, based on partisanship alone, these districts that would be promising pickup opportunities even if there was very little change in the national environment from that year.

The polls and special election results, however, currently suggest a major change in the national environment that could put many seats Trump won in play.

In helping figure out which seats these might be, one metric that could be useful is the Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voter Index. Essentially, this is a measure of the underlying presidential-level partisanship of each district, based on the past two elections — it measures how much more Democratic or Republican each district voted in presidential elections compared to the nation as a whole. (One potential advantage this metric has is that it’s not entirely pegged to the 2016 Trump/Clinton results, and incorporates how districts chose between Obama and Romney in 2012 too.)

So in addition to the 23 Republican-held districts Clinton won, there are:

[list]
[*]30 Republican-held seats with a PVI of Republican+5 or below (essentially, the next plausible batch of targets in a pro-Democratic year)
[*]31 Republican-held seats with a PVI of Republican+6 to Republican+8 (seats that could potentially be endangered in a really big wave)
[*]30 Republican-held seats with a PVI of Republican+9 to Republican+10 (seats that would probably only be vulnerable to a tsunami-like wave, or in case of scandal)
[/list]

Again, the magic number for Democrats is 24. So if there is a big wave in their favor, they’ll certainly have far more possibilities than that among these various groupings of seats.

It is important to keep in mind, again, that candidates matter. Some of these districts are represented by well-liked Republican incumbents who would be tough to dislodge even during a wave. And Democrats will have to find effective challengers.

Vox generally does good articles I like them

I'm the only one who voted?

Lame. I think Dems will win a few seats but not too many.

Despite being assured over and over by Trumpers for most of 2017 that the Democrats were going to lose and lose very big in 2018 because they sang a song and whatnot. I feel they're going to do very well come Nov.

I'd guess at least "Wave" to possibly approaching "Tsunami." edit: And this is based largely on plain and simple optimism

if the elections took place tomorrow it would probably be ultramega-grab-your-ankles-trumpers-tsunami, but gop swiftboat smear merchants will win some people back come november, like they always do.

Thinking a wave. But I don't think they'll take the senate. Think they'll take the house though.

Originally posted by BackFire
Thinking a wave. But I don't think they'll take the senate. Think they'll take the house though.

Admit it though, should (yes, pipedream) the Dems take both, it would be glorious. Trump has trouble getting things passed with a Republican controlled House, Senate and Supreme Court. Losing two of the three would stagnate his retarded ass even more.

If the dems win the senate then the GOP are in extremely deep shit. The Senate map is historically favorable for the GOP this year, if they can't hold it in such a scenario then they should sound a red alert because they're probably going to be royally ****ed in 2020.

If the dems get arrogant they'll lose

Originally posted by Robtard
Admit it though, should (yes, pipedream) the Dems take both, it would be glorious. Trump has trouble getting things passed with a Republican controlled House, Senate and Supreme Court. Losing two of the three would stagnate his retarded ass even more.

IIIIISSSS that REEEEEAAAAAALLLY a problem, though? hmmmm?

Lol to the clowns who voted for the top one.

Originally posted by Blindside12
Lol to the clowns who voted for the top one.

3 clowns so far. It's telling of the radical leftists or leftist trolls on this site.

The first part of the top one is definitely possible when you consider that there are 100+ districts that are more competitive than the PA district that flipped from red to blue last week. If the dems get lucky 75 house seats is absolutely possible, though I don't think very likely. The second half is near impossible. But so was Trump's win.

Vox here reporting on a study that could have dire implications for Democrats. Apparently, Democrats may need to win by as much as 11 points to retake the House, due to the extreme gerrymandering paired with additional clustering of Democrats in urban areas:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/27/17144198/gerrymandering-brennan-center-report-midterms-democrats-house-2018

Blame extreme Republican gerrymandering. That’s according to a new report from the Brennan Center for Justice, which finds that Republicans have so effectively gerrymandered key states like Ohio, North Carolina, and Wisconsin that it could prevent Democrats from reclaiming the 24 seats they need to retake the House majority, even if they win the popular vote by the same margins they did in past wave elections, like 2006.

But with Republican-dominated congressional redistricting in 2011, Brennan Center researchers project Democrats are going to win far fewer seats — around 12 — even if they win by an 8.8-point margin in 2018. In today’s gerrymandered landscape, Brennan researchers estimate Democrats would have to win the popular vote by 11 points, something neither party has achieved in decades.

However, some other experts put that number lower, about 7 points:

“The Brennan Center’s conclusion that Democrats would need to win 11 percent more votes than Republicans is flawed,” said Dave Wasserman, an elections analyst and the US House editor of the Cook Political Report. Wasserman estimates Democrats need to win the popular vote by about 7 percent to clinch a slim majority.

Although it should be noted that Dem insiders believe gains will reach 30-40, on current indicators, enough to comfortably retake the majority:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/insiders-see-democratic-house-gains-30-45-seats

Without gerrymandering, the country would be blue-er, a whole lot of blue-er. "In Gerry We Trust" should really be the Republican motto.

Originally posted by dadudemon
3 clowns so far. It's telling of the radical leftists or leftist trolls on this site.

Yep, they are too stupid for words.

^ Trig'd by a KMC poll

Originally posted by Robtard
^ Trig'd by a KMC poll

^Trig'd over incorrectly thinking someone else is trig'd.