2020 Presidential Election Discussion

Originally posted by -Pr-
So, I read this article that said that Trump, if re-elected, would cut payroll tax, which would effectively gut medicare and social security. My questions, as I have people in America I care about:

-How likely is this to actually happen?
-Does cutting payroll tax effectively **** everyone over?
-If so, is there some sort of mystical "better version" that will replace it and make it all better?

I appreciate anyone willing to clear this up for me.

1. The deferral seems like it is going to happen. Although it may face legal challenges. Trump is suggesting he would make them permanent if he got re-elected, that might be an incentive for some to vote for him. Although I don't think we can trust this promise, particularly since both Republican and Democratic lawmakers are opposed. There is a very real worry, that after the deferral some people will receive significant bills they might not be able to pay.

2 and 3: Cutting payroll taxes does not have to **** everyone over. It is one of the main taxes that poorer Americans (who are in work) pay and it can give them relief. The three main criticisms I have seen, and I do think they all have some validity are that a) it is only a temporary deferral, which means people will have to pay it later, b) it only helps those who are employed, which particularly in this crisis are fewer people, a better alternative could be something like another stimulus check, or even a form of universal basic income (maybe something like $200 - $400 per month) and c) payroll taxes directly fund part of medicare through the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund ( https://www.medicare.gov/about-us/how-is-medicare-funded ), and unless there is a willingness in congress and the executive to ensure that the funding continues there is a worry that there will be shortcomings in that funding. Some people, and I would tend to agree, think that Republicans are generally interested in cutting all sorts of benefits including medicare, so there is a worry that this can be a sneaky way to achieve that. I don't think that's what Trump wants, I do think it's very possible that that's what Mitch McConnell will try to do though.

Here are a few articles that might give you some more information:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/trumps-payroll-tax-cut-would-terminate-social-security-critics-say.html

https://www.wbrc.com/2020/08/10/payroll-tax-delay-may-mean-more-money-youll-have-pay-it-back/

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200809/p2g/00m/0in/022000c

https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/what-a-trump-payroll-tax-deferral-would-actually-mean-for-your-wallet

Originally posted by Adam_PoE
No. If the government eliminates the payroll tax, Americans will not be paying it when the file their taxes, or at any other time for that matter. It just goes away.

And since the payroll tax will no longer be automatically withheld from their paychecks (because it has been eliminated), people will see a net increase in their pay (in the amount that used to be withheld for payroll taxes).

Republicans can then claim they gave people a "tax cut," which is technically true, to effectively buy their votes in exchange for a modest increase in take-home pay.

All without acknowledging that the tax they cut funds their entitlement benefits, and that by cutting it, they also effectively eliminated their benefits in the process.

They will see the increase in their take-home pay immediately, but they will not see that their benefits are gone until they go to claim them. So they are effectively trading their long-term security for a short-term reward without realizing it.

So Americans would effectively stop paying taxes?

Originally posted by dadudemon
PR, everything Adam_PoE says here, is true. Including the part about the Republicans gloating about their tax cuts (they will do it and already started).

PR, what Adam_PoE says here, is definitely not true. That's not how the system works as I've explained. Tax revenues will simply decrease and the budget deficit will get larger. That's it. None of this fearmongering about losing medicare and medicaid that the Democrats are trying to do.

It's a giant load of shit to say they lose their medicare or medicaid (those two things are an expensive version of your Health Service system in Ireland).

Right, but... I'm still not seeing how this benefits Trump and the boys. Or is it simply "we gave you a tax cut". Is that it?

Originally posted by Artol
1. The deferral seems like it is going to happen. Although it may face legal challenges. Trump is suggesting he would make them permanent if he got re-elected, that might be an incentive for some to vote for him. Although I don't think we can trust this promise, particularly since both Republican and Democratic lawmakers are opposed. There is a very real worry, that after the deferral some people will receive significant bills they might not be able to pay.

2 and 3: Cutting payroll taxes does not have to **** everyone over. It is one of the main taxes that poorer Americans (who are in work) pay and it can give them relief. The three main criticisms I have seen, and I do think they all have some validity are that a) it is only a temporary deferral, which means people will have to pay it later, b) it only helps those who are employed, which particularly in this crisis are fewer people, a better alternative could be something like another stimulus check, or even a form of universal basic income (maybe something like 200$ per month) and c) payroll taxes directly fund part of medicare through the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund ( https://www.medicare.gov/about-us/how-is-medicare-funded ), and unless there is a willingness in congress and the executive to ensure that the funding continues there is a worry that there will be shortcomings in that funding. Some people, and I would tend to agree, think that Republicans are generally interested in cutting all sorts of benefits including medicare, so there is a worry that this can be a sneaky way to achieve that. I don't think that's what Trump wants, I do think it's very possible that that's what Mitch McConnell will try to do though.

Here are a few articles that might give you some more information:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/trumps-payroll-tax-cut-would-terminate-social-security-critics-say.html

https://www.wbrc.com/2020/08/10/payroll-tax-delay-may-mean-more-money-youll-have-pay-it-back/

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200809/p2g/00m/0in/022000c

https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/what-a-trump-payroll-tax-deferral-would-actually-mean-for-your-wallet

On top of the ones they can't pay already?

Yeah, Mitch McConnell seems like a right **** all right.

Originally posted by -Pr-
So Americans would effectively stop paying taxes?

No, just one element of the 20,000 page tax code. It's is giving exactly a 7.65% tax cut to the poor and working class in America.

Originally posted by -Pr-
Right, but... I'm still not seeing how this benefits Trump and the boys. Or is it simply "we gave you a tax cut". Is that it?

Right. To a poor person, 7.65% tax cut on their pay check can be the difference between paying the bills and not eating to paying the bills and eating.

However, this does not take into account the tax benefits the bottom 3 quintiles of household income earners get, already.

This is how the tax system currently breaks down by household income quintile:

So it's just giving the bottom 3 quintiles more money off of their paycheck and it deepens the tax burden gap.

Which I'm definitely okay with - poor people can't afford shit. Giving them a tax break is fine.

Originally posted by -Pr-

On top of the ones they can't pay already?

Yeah, Mitch McConnell seems like a right **** all right.

Yes, theoretically if it remains only a deferral they will have a large tax bill in December that many won't be able to pay on top of the taxes they are already not able to pay.

Trump said the 1917 pandemic ended the second World War...

YouTube video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_y5xY829UoY

Damn, that's a stupid thing to say. And to think we have to deal with 4 more years of this.

Trigger Warning: Kamala Harris is the VP pick.

Originally posted by Robtard
Trigger Warning: Kamala Harris is the VP pick.

You just cost Joe Biden ANY chance at the Presidency!!!

The pick is not a shock, and the sexism and racism from dems will always be amusing.

Plus I gotta admit, if she becomes the first female president cuz a more powerful man died...I would love it and laugh.

Originally posted by Robtard
Trigger Warning: Kamala Harris is the VP pick.

No surprise. It was the very obvious choice.

Originally posted by Surtur
The pick is not a shock, and the sexism and racism from dems will always be amusing.

Plus I gotta admit, if she becomes the first female president cuz a more powerful man died...I would love it and laugh.

It will never happen.

The clip of Harris saying "I'm not going to do something just for Black people", "NOOOOOOOOOO" is devastating and irrevocable. Add to that her White husband and her actually being "INDIAN" and not Black is a fiasco Trump's surrogates will exploit to the hilt.

given all the blacks she put away for stuff like weed(despite toking it herself) i don't doubt her when she says she won't do something for black people.

Originally posted by Surtur
given all the blacks she put away for stuff like weed(despite toking it herself) i don't doubt her when she says she won't do something for black people.

I could cobble together a 30 minute video of Harris' comments that would end ANY hope of galvanizing Black support with her comments alone. Combine this with Biden and Trump's paid Black advocates will eviscerate them in the coming months

Originally posted by Robtard
Trigger Warning: Kamala Harris is the VP pick.

I am kind of triggered. I was hoping for an appeasement on policies I care about.

Originally posted by LordofBrooklyn
I could cobble together a 30 minute video of Harris' comments that would end ANY hope of galvanizing Black support with her comments alone. Combine this with Biden and Trump's paid Black advocates will eviscerate them in the coming months

Got to cobblin', I'd love to see that montage.

Edit - IT'S COBBLIN' TIME! weeeeee!!!!!

Originally posted by dadudemon
I am kind of triggered. I was hoping for an appeasement on policies I care about.

They were never going to support actually progressive politics. It's all about identity politics nowadays.

Originally posted by LordofBrooklyn
I could cobble together a 30 minute video of Harris' comments that would end ANY hope of galvanizing Black support with her comments alone. Combine this with Biden and Trump's paid Black advocates will eviscerate them in the coming months

Blacks would still vote Democrat in mass, they just see Republicans as the enemy.

Originally posted by snowdragon
Blacks would still vote Democrat in mass, they just see Republicans as the enemy.

If "the blacks" get too uppity, the Republicans will...free them a second time! aha That will learn 'em!

Originally posted by dadudemon
If "the blacks" get too uppity, the Republicans will...free them a second time! aha That will learn 'em!

Good ole Uncle Joe can just remind them again like in 2012 Republicans will put them back in chains 😱

Originally posted by snowdragon
Blacks would still vote Democrat in mass, they just see Republicans as the enemy.

Have you checked The "Blacks" voter turnout during the primaries?

Have you checked The "Blacks" level of support for Biden and Harris?

When the Black voting monolith fails to show up at the polls I want to see your posts then.