Just some context
Originally posted by dadudemon
Not off the top of my head.But Rasmussen, who correctly predicted the results towards the end, said they are using the same methods as before.
I don’t either. I would imagine after having their polls so wrong in 2016 a lot of them would try to make adjustments to improve in some way.
Originally posted by BrolyBlack
Just some context
This is now getting embarrassing.
Originally posted by BackFire
I don’t either. I would imagine after having their polls so wrong in 2016 a lot of them would try to make adjustments to improve in some way.
I read a news article and posted it to KMC that talked about how none of the major pollsters adjusted their methods despite claiming to do so and they are still getting it wrong (that's where I'm getting that idea from):
Harry Enten of CNN trumpeted, "2018 was a very good year for polls." Really? Many of the contests were in deep red or blue areas where the outcome was never in doubt. And there were still some big misses. Polls again underestimated Republicans in a handful of states including Florida and, as in 2016, those misses were enough to result in narrow wins in important races. In all, only 80 percent of polls showed the eventual winners leading. That sounds good, but take out the no-brainers, and the hit rate is more like 50–50—in other words, a coin flip.So far in 2020, poll performance is mixed. Polls missed in South Carolina. They said Biden was ahead by an average of 15 percentage points and he won by 28 percentage points, although perhaps that's understandable given the rapid consolidation as other candidates dropped out and the huge endorsement from Representative James Clyburn of South Carolina, the third-ranking Democrat in the House. Polls also missed the rise of moderates and fall of progressives, first evident in New Hampshire. Polls were close in Florida, but underestimated Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary in Michigan, as they did in 2016.
Those who make forecasts have also missed. Less than a month ago FiveThirtyEight, which focuses on statistical analysis of politics and other key issues, said that Sanders was in "the driver's seat" and "easily most likely to win the Democratic nomination." So much for that.
Originally posted by BackFire
Interesting read. Thanks. One of the things I’m most interested in this year is to see how the polls actually are. If they’re wrong yet again and trump wins then I think they’d have to make pretty significant changes or else people will probably write them off completely.
Many of us already have.
Originally posted by dadudemon
I read a news article and posted it to KMC that talked about how none of the major pollsters adjusted their methods despite claiming to do so and they are still getting it wrong (that's where I'm getting that idea from):
Lol. Cuz why would they ever learn a lesson?