Originally posted by dadudemon
First, nice write-up and research. Good finds.To answer your question, apples to apples comparison is how it worked out (comparing apples to oranges is what dishonest statisticians LOVE to do and I try to avoid it. If I cannot, I explain all the weaknesses in the data and in my conclusions and you'll see some of that, below). Just taking the raw population numbers by race and using that as a divisor and then taking the number of police violence cases as the dividend is not an honest portrayal of reality.
If you represent police reports from victims, blacks far more represent the perpetrators than any other race. Robberies, assaults, murders, etc. Proportionally, whites are far more likely to be victims of violent force from police. Not only do black people get away with far more crimes than any other race (based on victimization reporting), they also are far less likely to experience violence from police in an encounter where they are criminal suspects. There is another confounding variable in this issue: black people trust the police less than any other race and are less likely to report crimes or cooperate with police during investigations due to this mistrust. Meaning, victimization by perpetrator by race is likely underrepresented by black people and we are not capturing true figures for which race is committing crimes. Since black people are the most likely victims of black criminals, we have an under-reporting problem. That may explain some of the black crime problems plaguing our large cities and police need to do something about improving trust so that crimes can be better addressed and prevented.
If you are a white person, you have a higher probability of experiencing violence from the police, per encounter, than a black person, when confronted for committing a crime. This also includes fatal confrontations.
Not sure why police are more "relaxed" with black suspects.
thank u, u too. I appreciate the response.
"Just taking the raw population numbers by race and using that as a divisor and then taking the number of police violence cases as the dividend is not an honest portrayal of reality"
Agree completely with this part. Would u say a better way to phrase it would be- while race undoubtedly plays a part in some cases and some numbers might show that some races are disproportionately represented in police brutality cases, there are many other contributing factors outside of race that have an impact.?
"If you are a white person, you have a higher probability of experiencing violence from the police, per encounter, than a black person, when confronted for committing a crime. This also includes fatal confrontations."
This part is interesting to me.
I started considering different factors and data that could contribute to that, such as if either race is more or less likely to be confronted for a crime they didnt commit, how that would affect their own response, which in turn would affect the cops response etc... Then while looking into some of those numbers, i started to think of different factors that could affect that.
Then i started to think its a never ending rabbit hole where contributing factors pile upon contributing factors that muddy and confuse things even more. Which simultaneously made me appreciate the conclusion from the article i posted before which was-
"I believe there are only 2 things separating us from having all the right answers.
The first is enough data, and we are slowly but surely getting there. The second is having more curious people who are willing to look at this data and ask the right questions."
While at the same time being discouraged at the thought of ever coming to an actual correct conclusion, based off factors and data. How many contributing factors are there? Do some matter or weigh more than others? By how much? Etc... It seems very daunting and would probably take more time than i have while waiting for my turn for my haircut to figure out lol.
With all that being said. If i was lost in an area that i wasnt familiar with, getting pulled over/confronted by the police in the middle of the night with no witnesses around, id feel much more comfortable/safer being a white guy than a black dude.
In ur heart of hearts, in that same situation, would u honestly feel safer being black?