Originally posted by dadudemon
Videos are by me and it covers great content and arguments from Sorgo and I. We cover everything you and I are talking about. Sorgo also posted what I think is a high-quality study on lockdowns and I have a very good rebuttal to their conclusions.Also, if you look at countries that did not lockdown, their infections and fatalities closely mirror those countries that did not lockdown. With fatalities per million actually being less (I question this correlation as I think there are confounding variables at play which makes the correlation questionable even if the r value is greater than .4) in countries with no lockdowns.
Edit - Also, I stopped engaging Sorgo on this as it's getting too much into the bullshittery internet debate territory and is focusing less on the relevant content. I might make a follow-up vid that has nothing to do with Sorgo's and my "conversation" and only to do with the science of the disease, masks, lockdowns, and other public policies.
Yes but the countries that didn't lockdown who handled it relatively well, (like Japan) did something else like send Masks to every household. If we look at all the places that handled this pandemic most effectively, they either did Test and Trace from Day 1, or had a culture of wearing masks or went right into lockdown. (I don't count Sweden as a country that handled this well).
However Lockdown is by far the most effective way of handling this. As I have already pointed out, Mauritius went into lockdown when they only had 9 confirmed Cases. And they have demanded anyone who comes from abroad be put in a Quarantine Centre for 2 weeks since that time. The result? They have 1 confirmed case right now, and even he is in a Quarantine Centre.
It's a place that couldn't have handled an outbreak, so they got on top of it.
Like I said, I don't count Sweden as a country that handled this well. Scandinavia in general has has a lot less % of vulnerable people, not many obese people and less of an elderly population. And Sweden's death figures are the worst in that area. And if there is a Vaccine available by the end of the year then Sweden will look like right d***s.
Originally posted by Darth ThorMalaysia's test and trace was boggling. Amazing job. In fact Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia nailed it early.
Yes but the countries that didn't lockdown who handled it relatively well, (like Japan) did something else like send Masks to every household. If we look at all the places that handled this pandemic most effectively, they either did Test and Trace from Day 1, or had a culture of wearing masks or went right into lockdown. (I don't count Sweden as a country that handled this well).However Lockdown is by far the most effective way of handling this. As I have already pointed out, Mauritius went into lockdown when they only had 9 confirmed Cases. And they have demanded anyone who comes from abroad be put in a Quarantine Centre for 2 weeks since that time. The result? They have 1 confirmed case right now, and even he is in a Quarantine Centre.
It's a place that couldn't have handled an outbreak, so they got on top of it.
Like I said, I don't count Sweden as a country that handled this well. Scandinavia in general has has a lot less % of vulnerable people, not many obese people and less of an elderly population. And Sweden's death figures are the worst in that area. And if there is a Vaccine available by the end of the year then Sweden will look like right d***s.
Originally posted by Old Man Whirly!
Malaysia's test and trace was boggling. Amazing job. In fact Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia nailed it early.
And of course South Korea.
Pretty much all of those East Asian countries. We should have followed their example given they have experience in dealing with outbreaks.
Instead we were arrogant thinking we know better (heck even after watching Europe go down, we thought it wouldn't happen to us that way), and we suffered the consequences.
Originally posted by Darth Thor👆 yeah, they all nailed it, Mayasia and SK as tech powerhouses it didnt surprise me, but Thailand and moreso Canbodia. They really did a great job.
And of course South Korea.Pretty much all of those East Asian countries. We should have followed their example given they have experience in dealing with outbreaks.
Instead we were arrogant thinking we know better (heck even after watching Europe go down, we thought it wouldn't happen to us that way), and we suffered the consequences.
Originally posted by Darth Thorlol, the interesting thing is our real scientists, the guys boris in the uk and trump in the us have ignored are going to have the first vaccines out with decent t and b cell stable memory populations, although as is the case with other coronaviruses t cell imprinting seems most key for an effective adaptive immune response, which was generally predicted by everyone in Feb.
But hey we followed "the science" facepalm
Originally posted by Darth Thor
Yes but the countries that didn't lockdown who handled it relatively well, (like Japan) did something else like send Masks to every household. If we look at all the places that handled this pandemic most effectively, they either did Test and Trace from Day 1, or had a culture of wearing masks or went right into lockdown. (I don't count Sweden as a country that handled this well).
Japan did have decent mask adherence compared to other countries (according to independent observational research). But they never locked down. Japan has been criticized for both their dishonesty to the situation (some were saying they simply didn't test or suppressed results) and their approach. But they are experiencing a second wave that is more severe than their first - their daily deaths should start spiking today and tomorrow.
Regardless of what you and I think of Sweden (because our opinions do differ on this), they are almost 100% done with Coronavirus where many countries are still dealing with it. Any country that had very little infections and deaths relative to their population size and density will eventually have to deal with it - you cannot stop it with any amount of policies unless you're an island.
Originally posted by Darth Thor
However Lockdown is by far the most effective way of handling this. As I have already pointed out, Mauritius went into lockdown when they only had 9 confirmed Cases. And they have demanded anyone who comes from abroad be put in a Quarantine Centre for 2 weeks since that time. The result? They have 1 confirmed case right now, and even he is in a Quarantine Centre.It's a place that couldn't have handled an outbreak, so they got on top of it.
Yes, any island the implements extreme lockdown measures will see temporary success unless they are very small - they could reach heard immunity if they are small but dealt with a waive of infection. Unfortunately, the rest of the world is not an island and they run the risk of getting "reinfected" with multiple waves until the rest of the world overcomes the virus.
But the exceptions are not the rule. Islands are pretty special for pandemics. Come on, bro, do you even play Plague Inc.?
Also, if you paid attention to the mostly large wastes of times of Sorgo's and my conversation, I made the point that most places responded far too late with their measures to be effective. In fact, in the only study I can find that measured lockdown countries against non-lockdown countries (with pre and post lockdown projections), it looks like lockdowns increased the number of cases/deaths because infected people 'went home' and that greatly increased the number of intimate contacts with household members which is just a game of dice on whether or not you'll get infected (more intimate contacts = greater chance of infection = higher positive cases = high deaths).
Originally posted by Darth Thor
Like I said, I don't count Sweden as a country that handled this well. Scandinavia in general has has a lot less % of vulnerable people, not many obese people and less of an elderly population. And Sweden's death figures are the worst in that area. And if there is a Vaccine available by the end of the year then Sweden will look like right d***s.
And I think your position is fair regarding Sweden. However, and this is going to piss a lot of governments off - multiple countries have now surpassed Sweden on deaths per million.
One thing I did notice about Sweden vs. Norway: Norway's health minister noted that their cases and R0 were already sharply dropping before they locked down. Meaning, their lockdown was unnecessary (her words). That made no sense as their populations, ethnicity and ethnicity prevalence, geography, and Human Development Index value are all quite similar. The only thing I could find that explains why Sweden was hit harder than Norway is Sweden has around 10-ish major urban/suburban centers and Norway has 2. Meaning, more dense populations centers to get infected compared to Norway.
If you look at the top 10 list of deaths per million, 1 out of 10 countries didn't lockdown: Sweden. And the other countries are still rising, pushing Sweden further and further down the list.
What's sad is Mexico and India are now skyrocketing up the list. Mexico has greater mask-wearing adherence than Japan. Mexico is #2 in the world for mask adherence. Tons of people are going to die.
What I don't understand is why Oklahoma, which only has 3-4 major population centers, is still dealing with deaths. Why didn't we see an outcome similar to Norway? I'll dig into it and see. I'll see if Mobility data is similar or different for the 2. Norway has about double the population of Oklahoma. Do you have any guesses before I dig into the data during my meetings (I don't have to do anything in these meetings - just tell the people what we are meeting about and then they talk/solution stuff).
About Taiwan:
Everything is mostly reopened...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/15/how-taiwan-beat-the-coronavirus.html
Unless Taiwan is pulling a Japan and suppressing data, Taiwan isn't done with Coronavirus. The country has too many people and the density is too high.
To put things into perspective, the US has higher mask wearing adherence than Taiwan.
However, this is what Taiwan is doing that might stop a lot of this - mandatory 14 day quarantines for anyone visiting from outside the country. All it takes is one infected person shedding enough to be a super spreader to ruin Taiwan. Sure hope they still see success.
Taiwan did well because they responded very early to extreme travel restrictions and quarantines of the ill - that works.
Watching the debate between Dr. Johnson and Dr. Rancourt.
I clicked off the video to see the about section.
Now I can't rejoin the debate.
DAMMIT!
They are full. So stupid. I should have never clicked off.
The Pro-Mask doctor was getting his ass handed to him. He was getting super upset, yelling, cutting the other dude off. It was embarrassing as hell and full of cringe. He was mocking Dr. Rancourt for wanting random controlled trials for such sweeping public policy like a mask mandate. Can you imagine being a doctor and mocking someone for wanting quality research?
Dr. Johnson also said it's ridiculous to use studies of healthcare workers, wearing masks all day, to translate to the general public. Dr. Rancourt's argument was something similar to "If they are wearing sanitary gloves, gowns, etc. and they are still getting infected with VRIs with little to no benefit from the masks, how is the general public supposed to do any better?" lol, such powah!
Originally posted by Robtard
People, please wear masks when going out. It's a level of protection and does lower the chance of spreading infection.
I agree that people can make the decision to wear a mask despite the lack of evidence that they are effective (and evidence that they are not effective).
The debate is whether or not it should be mandated by law.
Based on the evidence we have and the words of experts, there is no benefit with surgical masks (compared to no masks), a detriment with cloth masks, and a benefit under very specific variables with N95 masks.
This is, of course, ignoring the very large body of petri-dish-coughing-studies which clearly do not translate to the real world.
Sorgo and I agreed on this point with our very time-consuming back and forth: it won't hurt to wear a mask (not a cloth mask) but it should not be mandated.
Originally posted by dadudemon❌ Oh DDM...
I agree that people can make the decision to wear a mask despite the lack of evidence that they are effective (and evidence that they are not effective).The debate is whether or not it should be mandated by law.
Based on the evidence we have and the words of experts, there is no benefit with surgical masks (compared to no masks), a detriment with cloth masks, and a benefit under very specific variables with N95 masks.
This is, of course, ignoring the very large body of petri-dish-coughing-studies which clearly do not translate to the real world.
Sorgo and I agreed on this point with our very time-consuming back and forth: it won't hurt to wear a mask (not a cloth mask) but it should not be mandated.
Originally posted by dadudemon
I agree that people can make the decision to wear a mask despite the lack of evidence that they are effective (and evidence that they are not effective).The debate is whether or not it should be mandated by law.
Based on the evidence we have and the words of experts, there is no benefit with surgical masks (compared to no masks), a detriment with cloth masks, and a benefit under very specific variables with N95 masks.
This is, of course, ignoring the very large body of petri-dish-coughing-studies which clearly do not translate to the real world.
Sorgo and I agreed on this point with our very time-consuming back and forth: it won't hurt to wear a mask (not a cloth mask) but it should not be mandated.
Bingo! 👆
Trump emphasizes importance of masks during WH briefing
Trump has reversed himself. The good thing is that his followers act like they're in a cult so many of them will go from staunch "I'm not wearing a mask, muh freedoms!" rants to "Wear a mask, it's patriotic!".