Originally posted by Newjak
Depends on what you mean by miniscule.We're estimated to hit as high as 410,000 by January first for Covid Deaths. With most people believing we will definitely fall within the 300,000 range.
That doesn't seem that miniscule especially considering how much we had to do to get it that controlled even through our bumbling.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200901/what-changing-death-rates-tell-us-about-covid
A good article to read.
My model shows us at ~230,000 by the end of Jan, 2021.
Keep in mind, tens of thousands of elderly were dying from interrelated diseases and illnesses that include cold viruses like coronavirus, each year, before SARS-CoV-2.
They will continue to die each year, by the tens of thousands, forever and ever.
Edit - Note that positives per test and just raw positive test cases have been significantly dropping for weeks. And the population being infected also affects the mortality figures. If the younger people are the ones testing positive, it doesn't matter how many get infected, almost none of them will die - CDC has their mortality rate at like .003%. The "death" delay is about 21 days. We started seeing declines in August and the deaths started dropping around 21 days after that.
Originally posted by dadudemonDDM excuses, excuses as I explained to you ages ago secondary illnesses and pre existing conditions are always the main killer with bronchial viruses, that doesn't make the virus any less the trigger/cause of death. A bullet will kill you but it has to be shot by a gun. You can bleed to death but you have to be cut first.
My model shows us at ~230,000 by the end of Jan, 2021.Keep in mind, tens of thousands of elderly were dying from interrelated diseases and illnesses that include cold viruses like coronavirus, each year, before SARS-CoV-2.
They will continue to die each year, by the tens of thousands, forever and ever.
Edit - Note that positives per test and just raw positive test cases have been significantly dropping for weeks. And the population being infected also affects the mortality figures. If the younger people are the ones testing positive, it doesn't matter how many get infected, almost none of them will die - CDC has their mortality rate at like .003%. The "death" delay is about 21 days. We started seeing declines in August and the deaths started dropping around 21 days after that.
Originally posted by dadudemonYeah considering we're already hovering around 210k deaths right now only 20,000 more by end of year seems unrealistic.
My model shows us at ~230,000 by the end of Jan, 2021.Keep in mind, tens of thousands of elderly were dying from interrelated diseases and illnesses that include cold viruses like coronavirus, each year, before SARS-CoV-2.
They will continue to die each year, by the tens of thousands, forever and ever.
Edit - Note that positives per test and just raw positive test cases have been significantly dropping for weeks. And the population being infected also affects the mortality figures. If the younger people are the ones testing positive, it doesn't matter how many get infected, almost none of them will die - CDC has their mortality rate at like .003%. The "death" delay is about 21 days. We started seeing declines in August and the deaths started dropping around 21 days after that.
Even if the numbers are dropping they would have had to drop exponentially for that be feasible. Which just doesn't seem right based on the previous data.
Originally posted by Newjak
Yeah considering we're already hovering around 210k deaths right now only 20,000 more by end of year seems unrealistic.Even if the numbers are dropping they would have had to drop exponentially for that be feasible. Which just doesn't seem right based on the previous data.
You mean going from 1,100 deaths in a day down to 400, for example?
This is total deaths in 2017/18
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/images/databriefs/351-400/db355_fig4.png
This should be the comparable model for 2019 and 2020
Originally posted by NewjakI should explain Newjak if you read back over this thread nothing you are saying to DDM or highlighting is new. About half a dozen posters have pointed all these things out.
You mean the thing that happens every other day?That trend could be seen as far back as June/July. Even just a couple of days ago we had close 1000 death days.
Originally posted by Newjak
I'm just pointing out the statistical problem with using that number to mean only 00.02% of the population will die from this virus. Considering we've already breached that number by 2.5 times at this point in terms U.S of US population.
They don't care. Any number Covid-19 reaches will be handwaved away. Remember, this wasn't even supposed to kill close to what the seasonal Flu kills, so we didn't need to worry.
It is looking like we're definitely going to hit the 300K deaths in the US model or around that by the new year. Thought some outbreak or spikes could net us well over 300K by Jan 1st 2021
According to WorldoMeters, we're over 215K: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Originally posted by RobtardYeah, I'm not getting at DDM, but, he loved world meters and kept using it to start with. Then when herd immunity fell by the wayside as I told him it would, he stopped using it.
They don't care. Any number Covid-19 reaches will be handwaved away. Remember, this wasn't even supposed to kill close to what the seasonal Flu kills, so we didn't need to worry.It is looking like we're definitely going to hit the 300K deaths in the US model or around that by the new year.
According to WorldoMeters, we're over 215K: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Don't you mean "herd mentality" 😛
Originally posted by Robtard😂 Trump.
Don't you mean "herd mentality" 😛
Originally posted by Robtard😂
Don't you mean "herd mentality" 😛
Originally posted by Newjak
You mean the thing that happens every other day?
No, that's not a thing that happened when you control for the data trends. I'm referring to normalized daily deaths going from 1,100 to 400.
If that happened, would you call it an exponential reduction in daily deaths?
Originally posted by Newjak
Good to know.
He's literally gaslighting you. It's not true. He's a troll who spends about 50% of his time trying to troll me directly and indirectly. Notice how about every other post is a direct or indirect reference to me and consists of some sort of disparagement? At no point in KMC's history has anyone pissed off someone as much as I've angered Whirly. 🙂
Also, I have quite a bit of research collected on this topic. I'll post more details tonight after I workout. You'll be shocked to know what the actual science is on this topic and not the lies the MSM has been filling us full of. It's both worse and far better than than it seems. Worse as in there's no stopping it, at all. Better as in there were always ways to minimize mortality, even before it took off.
Originally posted by dadudemonI would be interested to see where you are getting this data and when you think this transition started.
No, that's not a thing that happened when you control for the data trends. I'm referring to normalized daily deaths going from 1,100 to 400.If that happened, would you call it an exponential reduction in daily deaths?
He's literally gaslighting you. It's not true. He's a troll who spends about 50% of his time trying to troll me directly and indirectly. Notice how about every other post is a direct or indirect reference to me and consists of some sort of disparagement? At no point in KMC's history has anyone pissed off someone as much as I've angered Whirly. 🙂
Also, I have quite a bit of research collected on this topic. I'll post more details tonight after I workout. You'll be shocked to know what the actual science is on this topic and not the lies the MSM has been filling us full of. It's both worse and far better than than it seems. Worse as in there's no stopping it, at all. Better as in there were always ways to minimize mortality, even before it took off.
Originally posted by Newjak
I would be interested to see where you are getting this data and when you think this transition started.
Both questions have one answer:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Edit - Wondering what your answer is to my question, though.
You made a statement about cov trends and I asked a question about your point. What are your thoughts about my question?
Originally posted by dadudemonTo answer your question if we were averaging a 1000 deaths a day and it dropped to 400 in a few weeks and continued I would call that a pretty big reduction.
Both questions have one answer:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Edit - Wondering what your answer is to my question, though.
You made a statement about cov trends and I asked a question about your point. What are your thoughts about my question?
The issue I'm seeing is that for the U.S. they have the deaths at about 750 from what I see in the October. Which is about a 250 decrease from August which was closer to a steady 1000. Are you saying we're about to hit 400 a day within the next month because that would still put us on a trend for over 300,000 deaths.
Their estimated end of year deaths for the U.S. is also 363,269 which is also 130,000 more than what you estimated.
