Coronavirus

Originally posted by Newjak
To answer your question if we were averaging a 1000 deaths a day and it dropped to 400 in a few weeks and continued I would call that a pretty big reduction.

The issue I'm seeing is that for the U.S. they have the deaths at about 750 from what I see in the October. Which is about a 250 decrease from August which was closer to a steady 1000. Are you saying we're about to hit 400 a day within the next month because that would still put us on a trend for over 300,000 deaths.

Their estimated end of year deaths for the U.S. is also 363,269 which is also 130,000 more than what you estimated.

Originally posted by Newjak
To answer your question if we were averaging a 1000 deaths a day and it dropped to 400 in a few weeks and continued I would call that a pretty big reduction.

Not sure if that fits your exponential criteria, though. But, yes, I agree.

Originally posted by Newjak
Their estimated end of year deaths for the U.S. is also 363,269 which is also 130,000 more than what you estimated.

Good news: my model has always been better than IHME's and for almost all weeks, it was very close to the actual data with the exception of a 3 week period at the end of April and first two weeks of May: I adjusted and it was fine. Had to do a minor adjustment in July, as well, because it didn't spread as quickly as I thought but it still hit peak numbers I projected...just more slowly. They were consistently wrong and by terribly large margins compared to my model.

We will definitely not see anything close to 363,269 deaths. Here's where they went wrong (and there is plenty of data to correctly model the trends...which just flabbergasts me about how ignorant and consistent their mistakes are): population immunity.

Originally posted by dadudemon
Not sure if that fits your exponential criteria, though. But, yes, I agree.

Good news: my model has always been better than IHME's and for almost all weeks, it was very close to the actual data with the exception of a 3 week period at the end of April and first two weeks of May: I adjusted and it was fine. Had to do a minor adjustment in July, as well, because it didn't spread as quickly as I thought but it still hit peak numbers I projected...just more slowly). They were consistently wrong and by terribly large margins compared to my model.

We will definitely not see anything close to 363,269 deaths. Here's where they went wrong (and there is plenty of data to correctly model the trends...which just flabbergasts me about how ignorant and consistent their mistakes are).

I highly doubt we're only going to end with 230,000. I definitely think it will be closer to 300,000 especially if mandates start to ease up again within the next month.

EDIT:

I also think you're going to see a spike in November as people start to travel for the Holidays.

Originally posted by Newjak
Well in that case we will see within the next month or two if your model is correct.

Yup! 🙂

Originally posted by Newjak
I highly doubt we're only going to end with 230,000. I definitely think it will be closer to 300,000 especially if mandates start to ease up again within the next month.

None of the data in the entire world fits this idea.

They are coming up with those numbers because of a "second season." That's where they are failing.

Gov. Cuomo tries to justify shutting down religious gatherings by using a picture from 2006

Lol

Originally posted by Newjak
Well in that case we will see within the next month or two if your model is correct.

I highly doubt we're only going to end with 230,000. I definitely think it will be closer to 300,000 especially if mandates start to ease up again within the next month.

EDIT:

I also think you're going to see a spike in November as people start to travel for the Holidays.

Everybody book mark this.

Originally posted by Newjak
Well in that case we will see within the next month or two if your model is correct.

I highly doubt we're only going to end with 230,000. I definitely think it will be closer to 300,000 especially if mandates start to ease up again within the next month.

EDIT:

I also think you're going to see a spike in November as people start to travel for the Holidays.

Ooo now I'm thinking about turkey and some stuffing made with white castles hamburgers. Nom nom nom.

This may be the end of civilization as we know it.

This thing mutates. What happens if it mutates into a form you can't inoculate against?

Or what if it simply keeps coming back and crippling efforts to rebuld, despite our best efforts?

We already know they're willing to tell us things we want to hear to prevent a panic, because Trump admitted to doing exactly that. And another doctor actually used the words "We want you to feel like you can do something to protect your family", when talking about masks. That's very specific wording.

How did this thing spread so far anyways? I completely understand that a few people catch it and spread it around to their friends and family, but we're simply not that closely connected to each other. I would NEVER meet up with those kids at a party in Florida or whatever. I'd never risk getting close enough to someone to catch anything.

And besides, quarantine is supposed to stop the spread of this thing. So how did it not get locked down IMMEDIATELY, with infected people cut off from travel, and steps traced to lock down everypne they came into contact with. That's the POINT of quarantine protocols. Did anyone on Earth really plan for this kind of thing?

Originally posted by Adam_PoE
Everybody book mark this.

I'll remember 280.

Originally posted by cdtm
This may be the end of civilization as we know it.

This thing mutates. What happens if it mutates into a form you can't inoculate against?

Or what if it simply keeps coming back and crippling efforts to rebuld, despite our best efforts?

We already know they're willing to tell us things we want to hear to prevent a panic, because Trump admitted to doing exactly that. And another doctor actually used the words "We want you to feel like you can do something to protect your family", when talking about masks. That's very specific wording.

I just hope civilization lasts until at least the day after Thanksgiving.

Originally posted by Adam_PoE
Everybody book mark this.

No need too, I will remember it.

Also, I noted the then new model of 300K by end of year back in early August and was attacked for it:

Originally posted by Robtard
300,000 Deaths By December? 9 Takeaways From The Newest COVID-19 Projections

By Dec. 1, the U.S. death toll from COVID-19 could reach nearly 300,000. That's the grim new projection from researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation — one of the more prominent teams modeling the pandemic. The new forecast, released Thursday, projects that between now and December, 137,000 people will die on top of the roughly 160,000 who have died so far.

NPR spoke with the head of IHME's team, Chris Murray, as well as with Nicholas Reich, of University of Massachusetts Amherst, who has set up a system for comparing 26 different U.S. forecasts. -snip

Should be noted that the IHME had made the 147K deaths model by August back in May which some claimed would be wrong and we'd be nowhere near that number come august. While the IHME got it wrong, they actually we're a bit too conservative.

Originally posted by Adam_PoE
Everybody book mark this.

No need too, I will remember it.

Also, was noted the then new model of 300K back in early August and was attacked for it:

Originally posted by Robtard
300,000 Deaths By December? 9 Takeaways From The Newest COVID-19 Projections

By Dec. 1, the U.S. death toll from COVID-19 could reach nearly 300,000. That's the grim new projection from researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation — one of the more prominent teams modeling the pandemic. The new forecast, released Thursday, projects that between now and December, 137,000 people will die on top of the roughly 160,000 who have died so far.

NPR spoke with the head of IHME's team, Chris Murray, as well as with Nicholas Reich, of University of Massachusetts Amherst, who has set up a system for comparing 26 different U.S. forecasts. -snip

Should be noted that the IHME had made the 147K deaths model by August back in May which some claimed would be wrong and we'd be nowhere near that number come august. While the IHME got it wrong, they actually we're a bit too conservative.

So that model could be off by a few weeks or a month

In response to a question I asked about Covid19 marking the end of society:

Is Covid19 the end of civilization as we know it?
what civilization David? where? using machines, other people invented & manufacture? does not make you civilized, David. get over your self…

Classical Patricians, (of all cultures) officially sanctioned the few books that we are permitted to read today.

all the rest were officially burnt.

these Classical Patricians (of all cultures) self-defined themselves as “Civilized”. sustained by Human slavery.

your use, David of machines instead of chattel? would have horrified them.

it will be much more correct, even accurate too say Modern Society is an obsolete, decaying Industrial Culture.

struggling too evolve into a Futurist, Functionalist, Technological Culture.

as with all birth’s? it’s proving too be a bloody mess!

This answer greatly disturbs me. He's essentially saying a digital society, where everything is done virtually, is desirable. And that Covid19 is the catalyst that leads to this change.

A deeper trip down the rabbit hole may suggest this disease was even spread purposely, to force us into that change.

Not even close to the craziest thing people have actually done to control societies.

Originally posted by Robtard
No need too, I will remember it.

Also, I noted the then new model of 300K by end of year back in early August and was attacked for it:

Originally posted by Adam_PoE
Everybody book mark this.

No, don't, bookmark this because it captures my actual statement:

Originally posted by dadudemon
My model shows us at ~230,000 by the end of Jan, 2021.

Originally posted by Robtard
No need too, I will remember it.

Also, I noted the then new model of 300K by end of year back in early August and was attacked for it:

Do you understand that unless there is a massive spike in new cases and new deaths, this 300K figure is impossible at the moment?

Originally posted by dadudemon
My model shows us at ~230,000 by the end of Jan, 2021.

Note that my model has been almost completely unadjusted since Mid-May with a slight adjustment to R0.

The actual deaths are likely going to end up at around 245K but for honesty's sake, I'm not adjusting the model nor will I adjust the figure.

It has been nice being right for so many weeks and months while people use junk models.

Originally posted by Robtard
No need too, I will remember it.

Also, was noted the then new model of 300K back in early August and was attacked for it:

So that model could be off by a few weeks or a month

DDM's 230,000 is literally "25,000 a month bruh"