Originally posted by Blakemore
Back sometime this summer, I think June, I asked DDM if he knows what exponential growth is. This clearly proves he doesnt. Let's use a simple model that says infection happens from person to person 1 every hour.If 1 infects 2, then 2 infect 4, then 4 infect 8 then 8 infect 16.
Within 4 hours, 15 people have gotten infected by a rate of 2^hour
DDM logic: Well then, by 4 hours it'll be 30!
Actual science: 16 infect 32, then 32 infect 64, then 64 infect 128 the 128 in 256!
DDM: It's only gonna be 30
Everyone else: It could be over 250 if we don't do anything, dickhead.
I think you forgot the gist of the conversation, entirely.
Also, there's limits on the number of contacts and it doesn't spread exactly like a function of x^2. Additionally, there is a such thing as super spreaders. Lastly, we already have cascades of data such that modeling in a simplistic exponential growth is rather stupid. We have AI that can come up with formulae that are far more accurate than your simplistic suggestion.
Here's a refresher to remind you of where you went wrong:
Originally posted by Blakemore
DDM, I thought you of all people on here would understand exponential growth.
Originally posted by dadudemon
Exponential growth has nothing to do why the points I am making.Transmission rate of anything great than 1 would be exponential and the common cold has a R0 greater than 1.
Personnel involved in giving out information on COVID-19 grossly and inappropriate misrepresented both mortality rates and R0.
Mar 20th, 2020 12:09 PM CST
This was when we were told 2 million people would die by August.
Let me know if you need anymore help understanding basic mathematics: I'm great at this.
Originally posted by Blakemore
Source: Johns Hopkins UniversityIf you looked at the ****ing image Surtur.
Where did John Hopkins Uni get the data? They didn't collect the data themselves with employees or contractors working for JHU. They got it from official CCP PR channels.
JHU may have been able to prove the other data for the US plot, though. Which would be more accurate/trustable than officially sourced CCP "data." Data is in quotes because it's likely not real based on what we've seen in other countries with similar population types, obesity rates, ages, density, etc.
Find any epidemiologist. Any of them. Ask them if they believe China's numbers.
Originally posted by dadudemonYou don't understand basic maths. That's why I put you on ignore.
I think you forgot the gist of the conversation, entirely.Also, there's limits on the number of contacts and it doesn't spread exactly like a function of x^2. Additionally, there is a such thing as super spreaders. Lastly, we already have cascades of data such that modeling in a simplistic exponential growth is rather stupid. We have AI that can come up with formulae that are far more accurate than your simplistic suggestion.
Here's a refresher to remind you of where you went wrong:
Mar 20th, 2020 12:09 PM CST
This was when we were told 2 million people would die by August.
Let me know if you need anymore help understanding basic mathematics: I'm great at this.
Originally posted by Old Man Whirly!Okay, so we're at 215,000and he thinks it'll be 230,000 by Jan 11th. I call bullshit. We'll be at 300,000 deaths in USA before the election, give or take. Best case scenario is 290,000 imo.
Ddm changing his goalposts as usual. Waits for irrelevant cherry picked data to support new status that Covid-19 is much worse than Flu as people told him for months as he doubled down it wasn't and pretended it was no worse than Flu and hopes no one remembers.Whirly remembers.
Originally posted by Blakemore
Okay, so we're at 215,000and he thinks it'll be 230,000 by Jan 11th. I call bullshit. We'll be at 300,000 deaths in USA before the election, give or take. Best case scenario is 290,000 imo.
Try not to misrepresent my actual position so much. I've literally quoted my post multiple times, now. How could you get something so easy from my post, so wrong?
But, yes, your post is easily testable. I look forward to the worldmeters data on November 3rd to see if you're right.
Originally posted by Blakemore
Okay, so we're at 215,000and he thinks it'll be 230,000 by Jan 11th. I call bullshit. We'll be at 300,000 deaths in USA before the election, give or take. Best case scenario is 290,000 imo.
Unless we get some huge spikes in the US, we won't be at 300K by the election, we could be at 300K by the end of the year though and we'll certainly be close (275+) if we don't hit or pass it.
WorldoMeters has the US at over 216K now, sometime tomorrow it will be 217K etc.
Originally posted by Blakemore
I'm calling ~290,000 before the election.
That's about 75K deaths in the next 27 days, the US would need to have some huge spikes in infections and mortality to to reach that. While not impossible, it's not likely. Very not likely.
~290,000 by end of year, yeah, could happen.
But if trends stay, we could be at around 250K by election day 11/03. Quarter of a million dead under this admin.
Originally posted by RobtardI'm putting this on stupid bastards and people going to the polls, also Halloween.
That's about 75K deaths in the next 27 days, the US would need to have some huge spikes in infections and mortality to to reach that. While not impossible, it's not likely. Very not likely.~290,000 by end of year, yeah, could happen.
But if trends stay, we could be at around 250K by election day 11/03. Quarter of a million dead under this admin.
It's a very infectious disease, the UK has already had a major spike.
So lets say it were possible to isolate every last person infected from society, with 100% accuracy and complete cooperation from every citizen and government.
Even if this were possible, would it "cure" our Covid19 problem?
I mean, virus's need a host to jump to. If all of them in human habitats became inert through isolation, that should be it, right?
Barring another bat attack?
Originally posted by cdtm
So lets say it were possible to isolate every last person infected from society, with 100% accuracy and complete cooperation from every citizen and government.Even if this were possible, would it "cure" our Covid19 problem?
No. People have tested positive months after getting over an active symptomatic infection. How viable those viral husks are is another question. It's also possible they keep encountering more of the virus but this is less likely.