Coronavirus

Originally posted by Newjak
I can't believe you actually made me do this facepalm

Although I will apologize. You said by end of January 2021 not by end of year. So your estimate was even more off then I gave you credit for.

Right. So no where in there does it say, "DDM you just a few weeks ago told us you thought the year end total was only going to be 230k dead"?

Even if we pretend your "end of year" mistake said end of Jan, you still lied about what I said. Nowhere did I say I think the end of year or end of Jan total was going to be 230K.

So what was your goal by lying so overtly?

Did you also forget this post which covers my actual thoughts?

Originally posted by dadudemon
Note that my model has been almost completely unadjusted since Mid-May with a slight adjustment to R0.

The actual deaths are likely going to end up at around 245K but for honesty's sake, I'm not adjusting the model nor will I adjust the figure.

Originally posted by dadudemon
Right. So no where in there does it say, "DDM you just a few weeks ago told us you thought the year end total was only going to be 230k dead"?

Even if we pretend your "end of year" mistake said end of Jan, you still lied about what I said. Nowhere did I say I think the end of year or end of Jan total was going to be 230K.

So what was your goal by lying so overtly?

😆

Originally posted by Newjak
You're not really trying to act like you didn't this by claiming you only approximately? Or that you said it was your model?

😆

No, what you summarized about what I said is still wrong. Seriously, just stick to what my post says instead of making up things I said. I also edited my post: check my post again.

You can't even honestly summarize what that post said that you quoted. 😐

I never once said 'I think we will end up at 230K deaths by end of Jan." That's a lie. You lied about what I said.

This puts you in a very unfavorable position. What's up with your honesty?

Originally posted by dadudemon
No, what you summarized about what I said is still wrong. Seriously, just stick to what my post says instead of making up things I said. I also edited my post: check my post again.

You can't even honestly summarize what that post said that you quoted. 😐

I never once said 'I think we will end up at 230K deaths by end of Jan." That's a lie. You lied about what I said.

This puts you in a very unfavorable position. What's up with your honesty?

Originally posted by dadudemon
No, what you summarized about what I said is still wrong. Seriously, just stick to what my post says instead of making up things I said. I also edited my post: check my post again.

You can't even honestly summarize what that post said that you quoted. 😐

I never once said 'I think we will end up at 230K deaths by end of Jan." That's a lie. You lied about what I said.

This puts you in a very unfavorable position. What's up with your honesty?

And apparently now you're saying it's 245,000 which is still a low-ball considering we'll probably be close to 240k by the end of October. So unless the final 2 months only contain like 5k to 8k deaths combined the number will still probably be much higher.

I think 275k to 285k based off trends makes much more sense. And that assumes we don't see big spikes because of the holidays which some states are starting to see spikes again already.

on a side note: trumpers' casual dismissal of deaths because of other conditions and old age is way beyond mein kamphort level

Originally posted by Newjak
So the answers to my questions are yes.

They are both no. You're trolling, right?

Originally posted by Newjak
You're trying to pretend that somehow at some point you didn't say the number was going to be 230k deaths.

Correct. I never said that I think the death figure, by the end of Jan of 2021, was going to be 230K.

Originally posted by Newjak
And apparently now you're saying it's 245,000

Wrong. I didn't say that.

I said:

Note that my model has been almost completely unadjusted since Mid-May with a slight adjustment to R0.

The actual deaths are likely going to end up at around 245K but for honesty's sake, I'm not adjusting the model nor will I adjust the figure.

Why incorrectly paraphrase what I said when you can just directly state what I said from a very short post? No need to paraphrase at all when you can just use my words, directly.

Question, though, why are you lying so obviously about what I said? I mean...my posts are right there and you're clearly incorrectly paraphrasing them, repeatedly. Only thing I can think of is you are trolling. "I'll paraphrase what he said, incorrectly, for the lulz."

What part about it being a model's figure that was almost completely unadjusted since late April do you not understand? What I think vs. what a model made in March says are definitely two different things.

😂 yup you're being intellectually dishonest DDM.

Wow it's painful to see.

Originally posted by Newjak
😂 yup you're being intellectually dishonest DDM.

Wow it's painful to see.

Originally posted by dadudemon
Sort of. What you sugest is almost the suggestion of world leading epidemiologists' opinions. The main key difference from what you're stating and what they suggest is protecting the elderly. But, this would be true of every flu and cold season.

Another suggestion, backed by actual research, is affordable and comprehensive universal healthcare. This has been proven to also save lives. Something the US does not have.

TLDR: I wrote a lot.

Healthcare is one thing, sure (and I actually have a personal investment in you yanks getting it at some point), but then again, you only have to look at countries like Ireland, England, Italy, Spain etc, that have that same healthcare. It did mitigate it some, sure, when compared to, say, America, but it didn't exactly make the thing harmless.

The problem, for me, is that people aren't protecting the elderly. They aren't taking hygiene seriously. It's like the entire world took on the Irish attitude of "ah, it'll be grand, don't worry about it". A lot, and I do think it is a lot of people, didn't take this shit seriously until the lockdowns were put in place.

And, how do we classify elderly? Because in Ireland, even people in their seventies are going to the shops by themselves because they don't have anybody to do it for them. They have to hope that they don't run in to someone that's carrying the virus, and from my pov, lockdown means less people out, so less chance of that happening.

On a more personal note...

People keep comparing it to the flu, and I, for one, don't like that. We don't have a vaccine for covid. There's mounting evidence that even if you get covid and survive, it has lasting implications due to the damage it leaves behind. And, even a cursory google shows that covid has killed more people than the flu. Sure, people will say you can fudge the numbers, but am I supposed to believe that they were fudged that much?

And besides, we already have the flu. It's been around for a good century now at least. It's part of living on this planet.

Covid shouldn't have to be. The spread was preventable, but idiot leaders didn't close airports when they should have, and now, upwards of a million people are dead. I genuinely don't care anymore if it was an accident or malicious, but the people that let this spread need to be ****ing punished.

Dunno if it was posted already, but:

"Dutch woman dies after catching COVID-19 twice, the first reported reinfection death."

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/dutch-woman-dies-after-catching-covid-19-twice-the-first-reported-reinfection-death-1.5144351

****.

Originally posted by dadudemon
I am not just some guy on the internet", dadudemon quietly protested as he watched -PR- live a successful and happy life

Nobody that knows PR wants him to be either successful or alive. 😄

Just kidding guys

The former, yes, the latter... eh. Maybe.

Originally posted by Bashar Teg
on a side note: trumpers' casual dismissal of deaths because of other conditions and old age is way beyond mein kamphort level

Team Trump has been doing the "meh, they were gonna die anyways" for many a month now, it started around the time when it became obvious Covid-19 wasn't just going to kill a small number and go away.

Originally posted by -Pr-
The former, yes, the latter... eh. Maybe.

Originally posted by Newjak
😂 yup you're being intellectually dishonest DDM.

Wow it's painful to see.

Where I said I think it would be around 245K deaths but I won't adjust my model, which shows 230K deaths specifically because I was being honest about the model?

Sure you've got this figured out?

Originally posted by -Pr-
[b]TLDR: I wrote a lot.

Healthcare is one thing, sure (and I actually have a personal investment in you yanks getting it at some point), but then again, you only have to look at countries like Ireland, England, Italy, Spain etc, that have that same healthcare. It did mitigate it some, sure, when compared to, say, America, but it didn't exactly make the thing harmless. [/B]

Agreed, there. The US differences on deaths per million aren't much different than these other countries. The UK was ahead of the US for almost the entire time and they are starting to close the gap again. Imagine how many lives the US could have saved with an affordable comprehensive UHC?

I don't want to think about it. It makes me buttmad.

Originally posted by -Pr-
The problem, for me, is that people aren't protecting the elderly. They aren't taking hygiene seriously. It's like the entire world took on the Irish attitude of "ah, it'll be grand, don't worry about it". A lot, and I do think it is a lot of people, didn't take this shit seriously until the lockdowns were put in place.

Agreed, 10000%. I didn't see my mother for 3 months because she's immuno-compromised. It was tough. My mom is a super nice person (the opposite of me) and makes delicious food. But I cared about her enough to not be selfish. She got sad and depressed a bit but she understood. Since I was heavily exposed to the virus in a house of people who all tested positive in May, and I tested negative on the antibody test in the first week of June, we assumed I was okay.

Originally posted by -Pr-
And, how do we classify elderly? Because in Ireland, even people in their seventies are going to the shops by themselves because they don't have anybody to do it for them. They have to hope that they don't run in to someone that's carrying the virus, and from my pov, lockdown means less people out, so less chance of that happening.

Depends. 75 and older, usually. But the data tells me 55 and older is probably a more conservative approach especially if your 55 and older person (anyone you have in mind like an uncle or friend) has risk factors.

Originally posted by -Pr-
On a more personal note...
People keep comparing it to the flu, and I, for one, don't like that. We don't have a vaccine for covid. There's mounting evidence that even if you get covid and survive, it has lasting implications due to the damage it leaves behind. And, even a cursory google shows that covid has killed more people than the flu. Sure, people will say you can fudge the numbers, but am I supposed to believe that they were fudged that much?

And besides, we already have the flu. It's been around for a good century now at least. It's part of living on this planet.

Covid shouldn't have to be. The spread was preventable, but idiot leaders didn't close airports when they should have, and now, upwards of a million people are dead. I genuinely don't care anymore if it was an accident or malicious, but the people that let this spread need to be ****ing punished.

Cold viruses have been killing our elderly for ages. Coronaviruses have also been around for centuries, killing humans. It's just that this one is more deadly than previous ones.

The coronavirus comes no where close to the death figures of the various flus. And, as I pointed out, cold viruses kill an estimated 2 million children each year. There is still a risk that the coronavirus could mutate and be deadly or deadlier than SARS-CoV-2. They are similar in that they can cause ARIs that lead to death or severe illness.

It's all deadly stuff. This is why I think the safety controls we put in place for the elderly should never go away and should have been in place for decades.

Originally posted by dadudemon
Oh yeah? And by how much did my figures change when I adjusted the model at the end of April?

🙂

Originally posted by Blakemore
My home town.

https://www.doncaster.gov.uk/services/health-wellbeing/covid-19-weekly-data-report

Originally posted by -Pr-
The former, yes, the latter... eh. Maybe.

CDC just published some research on how got the coronavirus and who didn't based on habits such as mask-wearing.

Guess what the results were?

71% of the case patients (people with symptoms and coronavirus) said they always wore a mask.

3.9% of the case patients said they never wore a mask.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6936a5-H.pdf

Unfortunately, this just confirms what we already knew from a previous, very high quality study, on masks: cloth masks do not work are even caused more infections. The authors of that study felt so strongly about the results that they said Healthcare Workers should simply not work if they only have a face cloth mask, if possible.

Originally posted by Blakemore
You just admitted to adjusting your model.

Why is it a problem that I stated I adjusted my model at the end of April, on KMC? You do understand I stated why it was wrong and how I fixed it after correcting the model, right? This was months ago. This is not a secret and spoke of my correction, unsolicited. Because I'm awesome like that.