Coronavirus

Originally posted by Robtard
It's likely going to get worse: "We expect daily deaths to reach a peak of over 2,500 a day in mid-January" -IHME modeling team 11/19/20

We're also on track to hit or surpass the 300K deaths model by the new year the IHME predicted months ago.

We've seriously allowed our social contracts between govt and the governed to be radically changed by covid and I'm afraid it was far far for the worse of the governed.

Realistically without the govt providing support to it's citizens while telling them to stay in, f-that. I can already see what's being laid out with the consequences of covid one little piece at a time, being given away under the pretense of safety in the USA at least.

Originally posted by snowdragon
We've seriously allowed our social contracts between govt and the governed to be radically changed by covid and I'm afraid it was far far for the worse of the governed.

Realistically without the govt providing support to it's citizens while telling them to stay in, f-that. I can already see what's being laid out with the consequences of covid one little piece at a time, being given away under the pretense of safety in the USA at least.

What's being laid out iyo?

Originally posted by Robtard
What's being laid out iyo?

I'm no seer so I'm not trying to predict specifically but in regards to our relationship with the govt we are simply handing them more power to control us economically.

Initially they gave us orders in our best interest to follow now more ppl simply follow what the govt says because we have eroded our communities. The fear would be loss of future economic assistance or even worse unlawful penalties.

I don't live in a part of the USA where this is a problem at all, our covid infection rates are crazy low in the midwest because I'm not in an sprawling urban center but I can still see the impact it has had here in regards to loss of small employers, I can only imagine the impact in large densely populated urban areas.

Originally posted by snowdragon
I'm no seer so I'm not trying to predict specifically but in regards to our relationship with the govt we are simply handing them more power to control us economically.

Historically, this power is never given back. Once taken, it's gone. This is part of why many libertarians are worried.

CA coronavirus cases hit record for 2nd time this week amid new statewide restrictions

Originally posted by Surtur
CA coronavirus cases hit record for 2nd time this week amid new statewide restrictions

I was reading about this.

As I've posted about this, multiple times: when will government folks learn that lockdowns don't work?

Almost all people test positive 4-5 days after exposure. Fact.

When strict lockdowns start, you should see an immediate drop in new cases the very next day. Never happens. And the difference should be extreme at the 4-5 day mark after a strict lockdown. But we never see that happen. Never.

Even when extending the time to 11 days, like one multi-country study did (they compared lockdown vs. no lockdown countries), that trend just never shows up in the data. In fact, there was a slight trend with increased cases after lockdowns (packing family members into homes all day will cause a slight uptick in new cases).

So why do governments keep using lockdowns as means to control the coronavirus new cases? We have no idea. We should base policies on high quality science: not fear, uncertainty, and "let's try this, seems popular."

You say we have no idea, but why do you personally think so many untreated governments around the world are trying to use lockdowns and soft lockdowns to slow or stop the spread? Some even for the second or third wave now? Do you think they are all misguided and advised by the wrong experts?

Originally posted by Artol
You say we have no idea, but why do you personally think so many untreated governments around the world are trying to use lockdowns and soft lockdowns to slow or stop the spread? Some even for the second or third wave now? Do you think they are all misguided and advised by the wrong experts?

Correct.

They must appear to "do something" or face criticism. This is why you keep seeing governments trying to "do stuff."

This is another situation where the government needs to almost completely step out of the way, clear roadblocks for medical services (such as suspending tariffs for medical supplies and equipment needed in hospitals and care homes and opening up fast travel for medical professionals), ensure we don't do the disastrous re-housing policy again (affected the US and the UK and we lost tens of thousands of elderly due to these murderous policies), but largely just stay out of the way and literally do nothing.

The UK may introduce "Freedom Passes" to people who show they have the antibodies and are not sick:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/11/21/exclusive-two-covid-tests-week-could-win-people-freedom-pass/

This is something I posted about back in May: Germany has considered similar.

I think this is a great idea. People like me who have been exposed exactly 5 times, directly, to the virus, but still did not get ill, should get a freedom pass.

Maybe the pass could be like a star

Viral video shows New York business owners take defiant stand when health inspector barges inside: 'Go get a warrant'

Good. If the authorities had no problem with BLM protests and Biden celebrations? It's time to sit down and shut the f*ck up. That goes for any city that allowed that bullshit. You will accept this fact, and you will accept the fact with a smile 🙂

Originally posted by Surtur
Maybe the pass could be like a star

They should put a gold star on your forehead.

Originally posted by Surtur
Maybe the pass could be like a star

To identify the "immune" people, I was thinking an identification umber tattooed to their forearm.

Getting close to 2000 deaths a day again. Probably going to be worse after Thanksgiving because of the idiots choosing to be done.

We'll probably be back in lockdown before the year is over.

Originally posted by Surtur
Viral video shows New York business owners take defiant stand when health inspector barges inside: 'Go get a warrant'

Good. If the authorities had no problem with BLM protests and Biden celebrations? It's time to sit down and shut the f*ck up. That goes for any city that allowed that bullshit. You will accept this fact, and you will accept the fact with a smile 🙂

They can accept the fact these business owners are dumb and part of the reason we've had some of the worst response to this pandemic in the world.

Odd, NY has allowed gatherings far larger than that for months.

Tinfoil hat on? Check? Voltron assemble... Reeeeeeeeee!

Today is an important day for Q4 2020 on COVID-19 deaths.

If we see an increase (from 7 days ago), the trends in new cases were predictive.

If we see a decrease (from 7 days ago), the trends in new cases are weakly predictive. Meaning, we won't see 4,000 deaths in a single day, 11-20 days from Nov 20th (where we hit peak new cases).

For anyone interested in this, we don't want people dying. We want to see trends where if people test positive, proportionally, people don't die in direct proportions like we saw in April.

In the beginning of the Pandemic, in the US, new cases were highly predictive of deaths. "The death lag" as it is called. These days, because of how much testing we are doing, the predictive power is much weaker. If I have time, I can do an "r-squared" analysis to see how accurate it is at different points.

Originally posted by Newjak
Getting close to 2000 deaths a day again. Probably going to be worse after Thanksgiving because of the idiots choosing to be done.

We'll probably be back in lockdown before the year is over.

For sure we need to destroy the economy to manage this with an insane low fatality, by economy I mean destroy small business, sounds good.