Originally posted by Blakemore
COVID-19 is twice as infectious as influenza.
This turned out to be false when you examine other datasets that do not rely on sick people who have been exposed to other sick people who were already diagnosed with COVID-19.
The problem with both the mortality rate and the Ro figures, which is what whipped everyone up into hysteria, was using a subset of a subset. Bullshit data like, "Ro of 5!" "1 in 5 require hospitalization!" and "It has a mortality rate of 3-5!!!"
Turns out that examining proper samples of COVID-19 (representative of the population and not a subset of a subset), you see an Ro closer to 1.2, mortality rate at about .3%, and 1/150 (who have been diagnosed with COVID-19) requiring hospitalization.
What is also not be discussed is the fact that COVID-19 already spread to millions of Americans earlier this month. If the public was notified that we likely passed the 10 million threshold already, it would cause even more mass hysteria.
Originally posted by Blakemore
That's the problem. In a week's time COVID-19 would be a shitload more deadly, as in killing people, than influenza due to it's rapid infectious rate. That's why there's panic and precaution.It's also new.
Italy has around 15,000 to 20,000 deaths from the annual flu, at the moment. They will land between 25,000 and 30,000 deaths related to annual flu (multiple strains).
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971219303285
Due to how the infections work, incubation periods, symptoms, and the duration of illness, we will see 1 of 2 outcomes in Italy:
1. There will be a sudden turning point in the number of deaths.
2. The deaths will continue.
My bet is on #1. And here's why: we already went beyond the point of containing it in many places and we have already hit near saturation. The thing with geometric growth is you cannot continue to grow, geometrically, across a relatively static population. You will eventually saturate the population with COVID-19 exposure and your geometric growth becomes halted in its tracks. Then recovery and testing also overtakes those figures.
So far, I have been correct. My predictions have come true. And they are based on math, not gut feeling, not opinions, and not bad science (where you broadcast mortality rates using subsets of subsets of the population).
Originally posted by Blakemore
620 doubled is 1240, but that's a 1 to 2 exponent. Influenza is a 1 to 2 exponential growth, but corona beer is a 1 to 3 growth so.... expect 1860ish deaths in Italy tomorrow for this non-threatening virus.Edit: 24 hours after this post.
500-800 for tomorrow.
Let's see who is right.
Originally posted by carthage
Not sure what to do about work, my business closed for 2 weeks and they’re debating whether or not to pay us. I can do part time shit but it takes 2 weeks to get a check anyway. Like what the ****.
Sorry to hear that.
You might be able to apply for short-term unemployment though? Might take two weeks for money to get to you, but at least it will come in so you won't be completely in the hole for the lost work.
Trump says his belief in one potential coronavirus drug is ‘just a feeling’
WASHINGTON — President Trump on Friday admitted that his enthusiasm for an antimalarial drug unproven as a coronavirus treatment was based largely on gut instinct, after an open disagreement with the nation’s top infectious disease expert at a White House press briefing.
When reporters asked Tony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, whether the drug hydroxychloroquine was effective at preventing coronavirus, he said simply: “The answer is no.” -snip
The Trump clownshow continues.
Originally posted by carthage
Not sure what to do about work, my business closed for 2 weeks and they’re debating whether or not to pay us. I can do part time shit but it takes 2 weeks to get a check anyway. Like what the ****.
Just saw this. Super super stupid and this sucks massively. I'm sorry this happened to you.
This hysteria, if it continues, will kill many people from stress, suicide, and stress-related illnesses.
We saw about 10k more suicides directly to the 2008 crash in the 2 years that followed. That's sad. The people most impacted by this are not the rich, it is the every day working person.
Originally posted by Robtard
Trump says his belief in one potential coronavirus drug is ‘just a feeling’WASHINGTON — President Trump on Friday admitted that his enthusiasm for an antimalarial drug unproven as a coronavirus treatment was based largely on gut instinct, after an open disagreement with the nation’s top infectious disease expert at a White House press briefing.
When reporters asked Tony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, whether the drug hydroxychloroquine was effective at preventing coronavirus, he said simply: “The answer is no.” -snip
The Trump clownshow continues.
same gut feeling that inspired him to spread misinformation and downplay the virus, i presume. seems trustworthy to me 👆
Originally posted by Bashar Teg
same gut feeling that inspired him to spread misinformation and downplay the virus, i presume. seems trustworthy to me 👆
Trump's literally arguing against the top-experts and his own appointed people on whether this drug works.
He pulls these moves, because his followers nigh never call him out.
good news
Originally posted by Bashar Teg
apparently you can now all hug your dogs, cats, and/or ferrets without worrying about killing them with coronavirus.https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/20/health/pets-dogs-cats-coronavirus-wellness/index.html
Originally posted by Robtard
Trump's literally arguing against the top-experts and his own appointed people on whether this drug works.He pulls these moves, because his followers nigh never call him out.
he has a natural ability to feel these things out intuitively. nobody knows more about this stuff than he does. stable genius. terrific genes. mighty penis.
Originally posted by Bashar Teg
he has a natural ability to feel these things out intuitively. nobody knows more about this stuff than he does. stable genius. terrific genes. mighty penis.
I hear his security detail has a nickname for him:
"Einstein".
So secret service people do have a sense of humor.
Originally posted by Robtard
Trump's literally arguing against the top-experts and his own appointed people on whether this drug works.He pulls these moves, because his followers nigh never call him out.
And people think if we just gave the CDC more money, Trump would magically listen to them harder for some weird and inexplicable reason.