Coronavirus

Here are today's updated numbers on COVID-19:

We now have more data (Week 11) for the Flu. And it does not look good. People with Flu-like symptoms are increasing, not decreasing. This is unlike any other trend we've seen since the CDC started tracking this data. Take a look at the 2019-2020 flu season:

Also, as more tests become available and we can start testing more people, we are seeing the mortality rate sharply drop in the US. Due to the incubation periods associated with COVID-19, the data we measure today could be reflective of people infected 14 days ago.

Here are 3 graphs to show trends:

Number of Deaths:

Number of Confirmed Cases:

Mortality Rate per Confirmed Case:

Originally posted by dadudemon
Feel free to measure that data but the data does not come anywhere close to your numbers:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I'm measuring by day according to that site as their clock is the same, day to day, and is the only valid way I can see to get day-to-day numbers. I cannot separate out the data by hour.

Originally posted by dadudemon
[b]Here are 3 graphs to show trends:

Number of Deaths:

Number of Confirmed Cases:

Mortality Rate per Confirmed Case:
[/B]

Originally posted by Smurph
You've switched the labels for the first and third graphs here.

Thanks, I cannot edit. I wish I could. I didn't hit preview or check my reply. I just labeled them according to which order I uploaded to imgur. Looking back, yeah, imgur didn't load them in the order I clicked. I'm stupid. 😐

Originally posted by Blakemore
I guess we're in the middle of the curve soon to be in the decay phase. This is good.

Should be. The data shows that we are still increasing, day over day (geometric) the number of deaths in Italy. But that number (the rate of deaths each day) appears to be decreasing which strongly hints we are close or have already hit saturation and recovery is taking over.

Edit - To put it into perspective:

March 6th, Friday, 2 weeks ago: 36 Deaths
March 13th, Friday, 1 week ago: 250 Daily Deaths, 6.94 times as many
March 20th, Friday, Yesterday: 627 Daily Deaths, 2.51 times as many

Daily rate increase for the first of those two weeks is 1.38

Daily rate increase for the second of those two weeks is 1.2

To put even that into perspective, the daily rate increase from February 28th to March 6th is 1.45.

There are some odd spikes and troughs on this, though, and the rates are really close to 1.38 until this last week, if your normalize it. We didn't see a drop from 1.38 in Italy until this last week. Which strongly implies that saturation I keep going on about.

Dr. Fauci credits President Trump's China travel ban — opposed by Joe Biden — with preventing Italy's disaster in US

👆

Originally posted by dadudemon
Should be. The data shows that we are still increasing, day over day (geometric) the number of deaths in Italy. But that number (the rate of deaths each day) appears to be decreasing which strongly hints we are close or have already hit saturation and recovery is taking over.

Edit - To put it into perspective:

March 6th, Friday, 2 weeks ago: 36 Deaths
March 13th, Friday, 1 week ago: 250 Daily Deaths, 6.94 times as many
March 20th, Friday, Yesterday: 627 Daily Deaths, 2.51 times as many

Daily rate increase for the first of those two weeks is 1.38

Daily rate increase for the second of those two weeks is 1.2

To put even that into perspective, the daily rate increase from February 28th to March 6th is 1.45.

There are some odd spikes and troughs on this, though, and the rates are really close to 1.38 until this last week, if your normalize it. We didn't see a drop from 1.38 in Italy until this last week. Which strongly implies that saturation I keep going on about.

I still stand that infections are still rising globally, and you graphs prove that.

Originally posted by dadudemon
For very near future?

No. If we ignore what happened yesterday (because it makes it unfair that I got the projections right) and ignore what knowledge we have today..we'd only have the data from the 19th and before to go off of.

Based on that, the next 3-5 days would see one of those 2 outcomes: either 2. the same death rates growing, day over day, or 1. a slowing of the deaths and a turning point is seen.

1 is what was seen. However, we cannot be sure, just yet. We need to wait the 2-4 more days to see if the death rate growth is slowing.

👆

A lot of people I speak to don't really seem to be aware of the incubation period of the virus, the media needs to stress this point more IMO.

China are reporting no new cases for the second day running apparently.

The thing I've been thinking is that when this passes (if it does) the people will have lost their shit forever. People will always be looking behind their back expecting something new and the grocery stores will be empty always.

I feel the media and politicians are gonna profit on maintaining the hysteria despite the fact that decay could well be around the corner. :/

That, and they'll take credit for the self isolation and quarantine shite. I'm not being funny, but I'm mostly a hermit anyway, and when I go outside, I haven't noticed a difference, although my Dad said that the toilet paper section of Tescos was empty the other day.

Lol.

Originally posted by Blakemore
based on the data you've provided, the number of deaths seem to be at 1 to 1, which is neither growth nor decay.

It took me a bit to understand what you mean, here, but I understand it, now.

The number I'm referring to is the "daily rate" that we increase deaths. Because of how infections work, you should see that rate go up each day until you hit a saturation period. Then you'll see that rate start to decline as the exponential growth slows and then it hits a negative number (less than 1).

Italy hasn't hit that point, yet, but their death rate increase is slowing. The magic number we want is less than 1 and we haven't hit it yet. 🙁

The US is good. We've stagnated for 3 days, now. About 50 deaths a day.

Originally posted by Blakemore
I still stand that infections are still rising globally, and you graphs prove that.

Confirmed cases, yes. That's a function of test availability and the efficiency at which the tests can be administered. We likely have tens of millions of current and active infections, globally. The US should be close to 10 million current and former cases.

Originally posted by samhain
👆

A lot of people I speak to don't really seem to be aware of the incubation period of the virus, the media needs to stress this point more IMO.

China are reporting no new cases for the second day running apparently.

Yup, around 14 days and that's a long time. Not as fast and deadly as common flu strains but still deadly enough that if you, say, did an extremely strenuous workout, it will slightly compromise your immune system and you could become ill with COVID-19 (this scenario assumes you were already infected with it).

Originally posted by dadudemon
It took me a bit to understand what you mean, here, but I understand it, now.

The number I'm referring to is the "daily rate" that we increase deaths. Because of how infections work, you should see that rate go up each day until you hit a saturation period. Then you'll see that rate start to decline as the exponential growth slows and then it hits a negative number (less than 1).

Italy hasn't hit that point, yet, but their death rate increase is slowing. The magic number we want is less than 1 and we haven't hit it yet. 🙁

The US is good. We've stagnated for 3 days, now. About 50 deaths a day.

Confirmed cases, yes. That's a function of test availability and the efficiency at which the tests can be administered. We likely have tens of millions of current and active infections, globally. The US should be close to 10 million current and former cases.

Learn the phrase 'decay'.

if everyone catches it at once, our healthcare system gets overloaded and we have a catastrophe like in Wuhan and Italy. part of what keeps mortality rates down is the ability to care for patients instead of having them wait until they die because nobody is available to help them or there is not enough equipment to help save their lives

It's still going up worldwide and actually moving into new territories, that said DDM is right in some places the rate of growth is slowing and in others it has reversed. In my job, I have direct responsibility for a thousand people. Only 30 of us including myself will be in work on Monday.

Originally posted by Bashar Teg
if everyone catches it at once, our healthcare system gets overloaded and we have a catastrophe like in Wuhan and Italy. part of what keeps mortality rates down is the ability to care for patients instead of having them wait until they die because nobody is available to help them or there is not enough equipment to help save their lives

Originally posted by Bashar Teg
I guess the whole operation is just to assure that we don't all get it at once when we all get it

that's nice, why don't you go put a gun in your mouth you alcoholic child stalking POS. f*ck you

LOL!!

Originally posted by Bashar Teg
that's nice, why don't you go put a gun in your mouth you alcoholic child stalking POS. f*ck you

*WHOOOOOOSH* hangouts gang