Originally posted by jaden_2.0
Tories will lose. Not because people will vote Labour but because Tory voters will stay home.They'll do better than expected though because the same people who are currently saying they'll vote Reform are the same who said they'd vote Brexit Party then didn't and the same people who said they'd vote UKIP then didn't. The whole "Vote X, get Labour" shtick the Tories always use will be used again.
And I'm sure Labour will do the reverse. As in Vote X (here being an anti-war independent, or Greens or whatever) will be a vote for Tory's.
Heck everyone I know (including FalconPaunch) voting Labour says just that. And just like the Reform voters, many of those who criticise Labour will vote them regardless.
I actually look forward to Labour being in power. To see what (if anything) they do differently. But they are so far ahead, if ever there was a time to "risk" our vote on an independent, it's this year.
Originally posted by jaden_2.0
Labour tend to only use that tactic in Scotland and Wales. Vote SNP/Plaid Cymru, get Tory. Even when it's demonstrably false.
Tony Blair used to use it in England.
Originally posted by jaden_2.0
This will be the 1st election since I became old enough to vote that I won't be voting.
I'd show your rejection of the establishment by voting Green (if there's no good Independent standing in your constituency) rather than not voting.
But your choice of course. I suspect many will be doing the same.
Originally posted by Darth Thor
Tony Blair used to use it in England.I'd show your rejection of the establishment by voting Green (if there's no good Independent standing in your constituency) rather than not voting.
But your choice of course. I suspect many will be doing the same.
Greens don't field candidates in my constituency for Westminster. I do vote for them at Holyrood for the Additional Member System vote though.
Originally posted by jaden_2.0
Here come the Tory tax cuts they know they can't afford so they'll have to pass on the inevitable tax increases to the next government which will be Labour so it'll make them unpopular.
I don't think people are that daft. The Tories came into power increasing taxes in their first budget, and went on to get a majority the next election.
Problem with Labour are, they don't have the balls to say they will increase taxes. If they're straight with us people will appreciate that afterwards.
Especially given potential tax raises don't need to effect most working people. Like add a few % to Capital Gains. That would effect me personally, but I'd understand as long as it's a reasonable rise, not like 20%. But I'd defo appreciate it more if they gave us a bloody hint now!
Originally posted by Darth Thor
I don't think people are that daft. !
When Douglas Carswell defected from the Tories to ukip then ran as an MP in the same constituency I saw an interview with a member of the public who said he was voting ukip "cos the Tory guy has done nothing for us for years"
I think people are that daft.
She's unlikely to spin that into winning enough to secure the GOP nomination.
She's staying in hoping Trump's criminal cases bring him down, but it's looking like the Far-Right controlled Supreme Court is gong to help Trump by dragging out in ruling whether a President is immune and therefore a King, when it's obvious a President is not. They sure didn't drag their feet in ruling whether states had state's rights in knocking Trump off the ballot. Weird.
She'd also be Trump's VP if he asked, she'd quickly reverse herself with "it's best for the country, we need to heal" excuses.
There are a significant growing percentage of unwavering "never trumpers" who will not support him. That's clear from exit poles. The assumption that most of Haley's voters will simply vote trump is wrong, and there's growing evidence of that. I'd rather people ignore that, since panic seems to be the only thing that makes democrats vote in full force, but quietly I say "it's in the bag". Unless something drastic occurs, trump will not win. So IMHO Haley succeeding without actually winning the nomination is a very good thing
Originally posted by Bashar Teg
There are a significant growing percentage of unwavering "never trumpers" who will not support him. That's clear from exit poles. The assumption that most of Haley's voters will simply vote trump is wrong, and there's growing evidence of that. I'd rather people ignore that, since panic seems to be the only thing that makes democrats vote in full force, but quietly I say "it's in the bag". Unless something drastic occurs, trump will not win. So IMHO Haley succeeding without actually winning the nomination is a very good thing
Fair points, but I do question how sincere those NT conservatives are, where they will say "never trump" when asked in a poll because they know Trump is a bag-of-shit just ike they did in 2016, but then vote for him in secret.
I still believe Biden can beat Trump, election results will be closer than the stomp Biden did in 2020, but a win is a win. Biden vs Haley, probably Biden, but not sure.
And yes, I too want Democrats and Left-Moderates to be in full panic mode so we get as many votes as possible, just in case.
I think you have a lot more faith in Republican voters than I do. If the majority of Republican voters cared about Jan 6th (they don't imo), we'd see it expressed more among our Republican Senators and House Members, of which it's nigh nonexistent.
Biden's going to have fewer votes too, mainly because he was handed Trump's disaster and a crashing economy, that's only turning around now and Democrats suck at selling their positives (infrastructure bill, CHIPS act etc), while Republicans are masters at spinning reality, making people feel bad over imagined wrongs. They're the grievance party and they excel at it.
One positive, Biden can lose a considerable number of votes and still win against Trump.
Probably around 85% of Republican voters don't, why our Republican law makers gave a shit for about a week (or two) after Jan 6th happened, then they started to pretend that they never called Trump out, blamed him for it and said he was unfit. Ted Cruz, Lindsay Graham, Kevin McCarthy being some of the bigger names.
And the claimed reasons vary among that 85%, some say it didn't happened; that it was just peaceful people, some say it did happen but it was the Left who attacked, some say Trumpers attacked, but it was fueled by the FBI who are apparently Liberals now.
I also believe they largely all know it was Trump behind Jan 6th, just like they know he lost and wasn't cheated. But they make excuses in public to excuse their poor behavior.
My point: Those officials go with the flow of their voters, because they want to keep their seats. It's like a window into the hearts and minds of Republican voters. Jan 6th is less important than Hunter's laptop to them.
eg Look what happened to Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger after they called Trump out and voted 'yes' on Trump's impeachment after Jan 6th