Palpatine still wins, I don't really know why people think there's some drastic change in fighting strength between TPM and RoTS with regards to Sidious; the guy had ONE FIGHT in the 13 years between the two episodes so its not like he had a chance to hone his craft any more than it already was. Sidious is as powerful in TPM as he was in RoTS unless you have proof that he gained power in between those time periods
Palpatine fenced with Dooku, so he obviously picked up a lot of quality fencing abilities there. Yoda would've murdered Shiv without his Dooku upgrade.
Anakin dies. Palpatine is a master of maipulation and Anakin is mentally unstable.
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"You were weak when I found you. I did not expect you to survive your training. But now, your hatred has become your strength. At last, the dark side is your ally. "