Well there are two issues with your statement here.
(1) It isn't a question of "strength" rather one of political will. I'm not sure what would happen if Russia invaded Ukraine and how the USA would react, but if the USA did decide to lead a Desert Storm style campaign I don't doubt that the US military could utterly extirpate the Russians from Ukraine. Russia would likely pull out before risking an all out war it knows it couldn't win. But, the more likely scenario were Russia to invade is that the USA and EU impose an economic embargo on Russia and relations plummet to Cold War levels. In any case, Putin IS NOT going to do anything overt around Olympics time. He's worked hard to try to project an image of Russia as a modern, strong, and not antisocial country through the Sochi Olympics, and overt intervention would ruin what little progress has been made on that front. The international backlash against the invasion of Georgia will be NOTHING compared to the reaction to an invasion of Ukraine. It would be like if America invaded Mexico.
(2) The crisis is more Europe's problem than the USA, and Russia is more concerned about the EU than the USA.
__________________
“Where the longleaf pines are whispering
to him who loved them so.
Where the faint murmurs now dwindling
echo o’er tide and shore."
-A Grave Epitaph in Santa Rosa County, Florida; I wish I could remember the man's name.
The article even implies this is the case. The US would offer support, but it is primarily an EU issue.
The problem is that previous EU issues of a martial nature involve some US muscle. Like Kosovo, in which the EU was largely unprepared to cooperate and work as a single unit together and required US forces to conclusively find a resolution. Or at least, that's what I recall. It has been some time.
He remembers it enough to be sinking billions of dollars into creating a Russian GPS system, because during the South Ossetia War the USA blocked Russian access to the GPS system, so in a big way they were forced to fight blind.
The thing about the EU is that its military component only really exists on paper as an entity separate from NATO command.
I think France and Germany are both for greater European military integration outside of NATO (probably more than ever after the NSA spying revelations) but the UK is staunchly against an independent EU military, most likely because they may no longer be the most important European military (given their close relationship with the USA) were that to happen.
__________________
“Where the longleaf pines are whispering
to him who loved them so.
Where the faint murmurs now dwindling
echo o’er tide and shore."
-A Grave Epitaph in Santa Rosa County, Florida; I wish I could remember the man's name.
It would erode the UK's overall strength in the area and I think that will always be an issue. So when push comes to shove, the EU will likely have to either ask for UK/US support, or Germany/France will have to take charge.
Germany has been on a pacifist footing since the end of the Cold War, but it's only a matter of a serious crisis coming along before it makes military spending a priority. It's already arguably the most powerful non-nuclear military on the planet.
__________________
“Where the longleaf pines are whispering
to him who loved them so.
Where the faint murmurs now dwindling
echo o’er tide and shore."
-A Grave Epitaph in Santa Rosa County, Florida; I wish I could remember the man's name.
Yeah, German troops have avoided active combat roles in the War on Terror because of unfortunate implications. That can't last forever though.
Of course with the crackdown on human rights in the Russian Federation, the dismissal of non-propaganda news casters, and the general corruption of the state, you can't help but think if Ukraine might be a future battleground for another Cold War.
The french army is already spread thin in our own african wars. The population wouldn't see an army movement with good eyes, specially with nationalistic parties gaining influences. But to be fair, Ukraine is pretty damn near.
Bottom line, Russia should be careful about provoking the EU, they have leverage in the form of natural gas exports but the nature of natural gas (it literally evaporates after you tap it, whether you extract or don't extract) and the existence of potential competitors (if, for instance, Iran does become more moderate and becomes a trading partner of the EU, it has enough natural gas to offset a Russian embargo, not to mention Qatar) makes that a volatile card, and if the EU thinks it might have to confront Russia militarily at some point, it has the economic and technological capability to make Russia's military look pathetic (really, only the USA or China would stand a chance against a unified, militarized EU with a population of over half a billion and the largest GDP in the world).
__________________
“Where the longleaf pines are whispering
to him who loved them so.
Where the faint murmurs now dwindling
echo o’er tide and shore."
-A Grave Epitaph in Santa Rosa County, Florida; I wish I could remember the man's name.
KMC Community Forums
Feb 20th, 2014 06:29 PM
