I actually think Anderson > Weidman, and that he has a good chance of beating him if they fight again. Consider the following:
1. Weidman, stylistically, is a nightmare matchup for Anderson. Thus, Weidman could beat Anderson in their matchup more often than not, but rather than meaning that he is better than Anderson, could just be a reflection of his stylistic advantage in the matchup. Consider the threat Chael was to Anderson, who is by no means a great fighter. I actually think Bisping, stylistically speaking, is a bad matchup for Weidman with his superior technical striking, insane cardio, and great TDD and ability to spring back up to his feet from bottom position. He also proved to be a tough stylistic matchup for Chael in their fight. Yet there's almost no doubt that Anderson would destroy Bisping. So often it's a just a matter of styles making fights.
2. There are massive question marks over both fights. The second was decided by a freak injury. The first, Anderson basically defeated himself rather than Weidman bettering him, taking his clowning antics to a new level. He learnt from his mistake for the second fight imo, and would not make that same mistake in a third either.
3. Anderson has a history of getting dominated earlier in a fight, but surviving it, and then coming back later in the fight and getting a finish. This is partly because he's got such great cardio, durability, and is great at protecting himself on the ground, whilst also being a threat off of his back with both striking and submissions. While Weidman demonstrated that he could dominate Anderson in both fights early on, Anderson showed that he was able to protect himself in those situations, defending the submissions, GnP, his stirking from bottom looked more impressive than Weidman's form top in the second fight, and looking fresh after getting back to a standing position. Weidman meanwhile has demonstrated issues with cardio in the past, and looked noticeably less explosive after getting Anderson down in both fights.
4. Anderson's TDD has actually looked pretty good in the fights, and Weidman's takedowns have really not looked that amazing or explosive. I actually think Chael has superior takedowns to Weidman, and even he had trouble taking Anderson down in the second fight.
I also think that Anderson's starting to show definite signs of his age as well and is no longer in his prime. For one, I think that his once legendary chin has started to go. I mean, he got rocked in the clinch against Weidman, knocked out in the first fight, and even got rocked by Chael of all people in their first fight. Compare to his fights in the past where he would just eat power shots from heavy hitters with ease. I also think his legendary reflexes that we saw earlier in his career in such fights as those against Forrest or Rich have started to leave him as well, and that he's started to slow down in general, and again, getting caught by Weidman and Chael are reflective of that. So in many ways, I think that the current Anderson, while still a great fighter, is a completely different entity from a prime Anderson. One of his most dangerous positions, the clinch, in some ways relied on his great chin, where he would be willing to trade punches with his opponent. Likewise, arguably the most impressive element of his counter striking, his ability to lure his opponents in, rely on his head movement to evade attacks, and then counter with his own, was so reliant on his reflexes and athleticism. You'd also have to consider how the leg break (as well as the original loss) has affected him, not only with his kicking game, but his general morale and confidence levels going into the fight, and it's undeniable that he's lost the aura he once possessed, and that his opponents will now start seeing him in a much more human light.
My assessment for the third fight:
I think if Weidman gets Anderson to the ground, Anderson seems to be able to defend himself against the submissions. The GnP might be a different matter, but he's defended himself against it in both fights so far.
I think Anderson's capable of defending the takedowns pretty effectively now, and that it's likely he can keep the fight standing.
I think the longer the fight lasts, the more tired Weidman will get, whereas Anderson will still remain relatively fresh.
As long as the fight stays standing, while Weidman does have a lot of power and can hurt Anderson, it's clear that Anderson has the advantage. While he may not be in his prime, he's still a far more skilled and athletic striker than Chris, and perhaps just as dangerous with his attacks as he ever has been (the front kick to the face against Vitor, the knee to the solar plexus of Bonar, the knee to a downed Sonnen). Given enough time, Anderson would finish Chris, probably via TKO, if the fight remains standing.
If they have a third fight, I have Anderson winning with a 70% likelihood.
As for how they rank at MW, I personally have it:
1. Lyoto Machida
2. Anderson Silva.
3. Chris Weidman.
I have Machida beating Anderson in a close fight that goes to decision.
Originally posted by StyleTime
I really hope y'all don't jinx Machida. lol
lol. I have Machida winning that fight with a 90% likelihood. I just don't think Weidman has a chance against him.