November Elections

It's about that time: 2 two weeks left until Election Day. I just sent in my absentee ballot from college two days ago.

The one thing that's for sure is that the Democratic Party isn't losing any seats this year. The question is how many will they gain. I'm almost certain that Democrats are taking the House of Representatives, and the Senate can't be ruled out. Democrats might even gain a majority in State governorships Various political centers have issued predicictions. My current favorite 'crystal ball' is this one:

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball

Mr. Sabato is a Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia.

The 'Brutal Bottom Line,' as he puts it, is as follows.

Senate
Republican seats up for election: 15 (out of 55 held)
Democratic seats: 18 (out of 45)
Bottom Line: Democrats +3 to +6 seats

House of Representatives
Republican seats 'in play:' 63 (169 uncompetitive races)
Democratic seats: 12 (191 uncompetitive races)
Bottom Line: Democrats +18 to +22 seats

Governorships
Republican seats up for election: 22 (out of 28 held)
Democratic seats: 14 (out of 22)
Bottom Line: Democrats +4 to +6 governorships

After 6 years of incompetence it looks like there might actually be some Congressional oversight in these last two years

A lot of Australian political commentary is that this election is going to be bad for the Republicans that will loose them control of, I believe, the house of Reps - and that by knock on effect this will trigger big policy shakeups in areas such as Iraq and its future.

It alls seem very matter of factly, it would be a remarkable turn around, some say miraculous, if the Republicans managed to gain anything from election.

Originally posted by Imperial_Samura
A lot of Australian political commentary is that this election is going to be bad for the Republicans that will loose them control of, I believe, the house of Reps - and that by knock on effect this will trigger big policy shakeups in areas such as Iraq and its future.

It alls seem very matter of factly, it would be a remarkable turn around, some say miraculous, if the Republicans managed to gain anything from election.

Originally posted by Strangelove
Unfortunately, I don't think there are do be any big policy changes, because the Democrats will have a slim majority, not enough to really make a change. But it will be symbolic that America wants something differnt, which could make a great Congress and a new White House in 2008

No, they aren't saying it will be Democrats making changes, but rather Republicans doing it - it seems, from an international perspective, that this election is going to be the measure by which the incumbent party is going to judge its near future.

Which might mean, apparently, new directions on big issues.

Originally posted by Imperial_Samura
No, they aren't saying it will be Democrats making changes, but rather Republicans doing it - it seems, from an international perspective, that this election is going to be the measure by which the incumbent party is going to judge its near future.

Which might mean, apparently, new directions on big issues.

Originally posted by Strangelove
Whatever the outcome, President Bush is either going to need to learn to be bipartisan or not do anything in his last two years

Ah, the slow death of a lame duck presidency.

I wouoldn't count the chips until they've fallen. Don't count out the neocons until the time has come. I'm not saying they should be elected. I'm just not underestimating them, or their propoganda machine.

Originally posted by Capt_Fantastic
I wouoldn't count the chips until they've fallen. Don't count out the neocons until the time has come. I'm not saying they should be elected. I'm just not underestimating them, or their propoganda machine.

Originally posted by Strangelove
There's no question that the neocons are losing seats this year, the question is how many.

Originally posted by Imperial_Samura
Ah, the slow death of a lame duck presidency.

Bush has essentially been a lame duck since he was re-elected.

Originally posted by Capt_Fantastic
That's underestimating your enemy. I don't do that until the battle has been won.

Originally posted by Alliance
Bush has essentially been a lame duck since he was re-elected.

True, but the limp has become more profound as time as wore on. I'll watch the election with some interest, mainly as it seems that how the chips fall in the US will possibly influence the outlook for our current government (though it is having plenty of troubles itself with IR reform and the rest, but still, the well being of Bush and Blair is believed to have contributed to its longevity, and with Blair out its leaves Bush to watch with baited breath.)

Except Blair was liberal. Bush is a caveman.

Originally posted by Alliance
Except Blair was liberal. Bush is a caveman.

Hehehe. Technically Australia's current government is called the "Liberal Party"which is ironic as the Liberal party is the conservative party and the Labor Party is the liberal one.

And of course now that Blair is seen as crippled politically all the analysts come out of the woodwork noting how on the "political spectrum" he didn't really fit with his political party, and that now the current political climate sees it trying to expel the last remnants of those like Blair from its ranks.

politics are boring and longwinded, at the end of the day theres no real election it's more of a turn out of people just to get the process over with, you vote for the same people as your parents did or you vote for the local guy, thats it.

Originally posted by bogen
politics are boring and longwinded, at the end of the day theres no real election it's more of a turn out of people just to get the process over with, you vote for the same people as your parents did or you vote for the local guy, thats it.

Originally posted by Alliance
Except Blair was liberal. Bush is a caveman.

Originally posted by lord xyz
Nah, Bush is a chimp, here's proof.

Nah. Bush is just as much a chimp as the next human.

Originally posted by lord xyz
Nah, Bush is a chimp, here's proof.

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball put out a modified Bottom Line today: Nothing changed except the House "brutal B," and favorably

[list]House of Representatives
[*]Republican Seats (63 seats 'in play'😉
-17 'Likely R'
-18 'Leans R'
-16 'Tossup'
-12 'Leans D'
[*]Democratic Seats (12 seats 'in play'😉
-8 'Likely D'
-4 'Leans D'[/list]

Bottom Line: Democrats +21 to +26 seats