Originally posted by srankmissingnin
Even if Microsoft and Sony strategy matches the statements of an unnamed "industry source," and hold firm to a 2014 lunch window. That puts my predictions off by a year, which is still closer to accurate than the "10 year life cycle before next gen," prediction. Anyway, an unnamed "industry source" is not an official word from Sony or Microsoft, and even if it was, Nintendo officially said in January or February of this very year they had no plans to release a new console in the near future... which obviously was less than truful.
It would be 9 years for 360, and even that is only a rumour, and in any case your central contention that they would not allow Nintendo to release early by bringing up their own releases ASAP is simply looking entirely wrong, along with your contention that they would be ready to do so, development wise (clearly, again, they are not, hence their talk about development times which you rather arrogantly claimed you knew anyway, despite Nintendo obviously disagreeing with it). You only make yourself look sillier trying to fight it like that. You are clearly in error. You've already been made to look pretty foolish by the revelation of an early 2012 target for Nintendo- just go back and read your earlier posts again.
So, back to what I originally said- Nintendo are clearly stealing a march here; they will have an open market for some while before Sony or Microsoft get out anything new. The question is now is if they can make it work at a non-casual price point.
Originally posted by Ushgarak
It would be 9 years for 360, and even that is only a rumour, and in any case your central contention that they would not allow Nintendo to release early by bringing up their own releases ASAP is simply looking entirely wrong, along with your contention that they would be ready to do so, development wise (clearly, again, they are not, hence their talk about development times which you rather arrogantly claimed you knew anyway, despite Nintendo obviously disagreeing with it). You only make yourself look sillier trying to fight it like that. You are clearly in error. You've already been made to look pretty foolish by the revelation of an early 2012 target for Nintendo- just go back and read your earlier posts again.So, back to what I originally said- Nintendo are clearly stealing a march here; they will have an open market for some while before Sony or Microsoft get out anything new. The question is now is if they can make it work at a non-casual price point.
So far the info at hand from "industry insiders" suggests Microsoft and Sony were targeting a 2014 launch window for the next gen. Now that they have an idea what Nintendo plans, who is to say that those plans will remain concrete, (if they were real in the first place?) Moving a head the production schedule a year to steal some of Nintendo's thunder wouldn't be out of the question (something Microsoft probably already did with the 360), and would place things lock step with my time line.
Also, there has been no "revelation" of an early 2012 launch either, just baseless speculation. A late 2012 launch seems to be the consensus on the majority of articles across the various gaming sites / blogs.
Didn't they release the Wii in the same year they unveiled it at E3?
Microsoft still have a while to go:
http://www.gameblurb.net/news/microsofts-next-gen-console-coming-2015/
Releasing a system earlier than the competition doesn't necessarily equate to success. It can backfire in the long run. Remember the Dreamcast.
That said if it is successful, and honestly it probably will be, at least to a certain extent, it could give Nintendo a dominating market ownership, with the Wii dominating on the "casual gaming" front, and this new one appealing to the "hardcore" crowd with pretty pictures and all that.
Originally posted by BackFire
Releasing a system earlier than the competition doesn't necessarily equate to success. It can backfire in the long run. Remember the Dreamcast.That said if it is successful, and honestly it probably will be, at least to a certain extent, it could give Nintendo a dominating market ownership, with the Wii dominating on the "casual gaming" front, and this new one appealing to the "hardcore" crowd with pretty pictures and all that.
Haha, it's funny cuz it's your username as well. Anyways, I thought the same thing too, made me remember the Dreamcast.
Originally posted by BackFire
Releasing a system earlier than the competition doesn't necessarily equate to success. It can backfire in the long run. Remember the Dreamcast.That said if it is successful, and honestly it probably will be, at least to a certain extent, it could give Nintendo a dominating market ownership, with the Wii dominating on the "casual gaming" front, and this new one appealing to the "hardcore" crowd with pretty pictures and all that.
Nintendo has to do a lot of ass kissing to the hardcore market to get rid of taint of the Gamecube and the lack of good 3rd party software.
If they don't have CoD, or GTA, no gamer is going to move over.
That's true but I wonder how smart gamers are?
You have to believe that Sony/MS will come out with a console with better graphics than the new Nintendo console a couple of years later. Knowing this, would gamers just wait for those consoles to appear and seeing that Nintendo's awful 3rd party support has left a bad taste in people's mouth.
I used to buy all Nintendo consoles but unless they floor me with awesome 3rd party support, a controller with a touchscreen isn't going to do it. Just another gimmick.
Originally posted by Smasandian
That's true but I wonder how smart gamers are?You have to believe that Sony/MS will come out with a console with better graphics than the new Nintendo console a couple of years later. Knowing this, would gamers just wait for those consoles to appear and seeing that Nintendo's awful 3rd party support has left a bad taste in people's mouth.
I used to buy all Nintendo consoles but unless they floor me with awesome 3rd party support, a controller with a touchscreen isn't going to do it. Just another gimmick.
Yup, that's why I mentioned the Dreamcast earlier, because Nintendo can find themselves in the awkward spot of dominating in tech for two years, then suddenly find themselves way behind in that same area, which is what happened with the DC. Granted a two year tech gap isn't as significant as it was back then, as tech progress has slowed down pretty heavily, but still could matter.
Originally posted by Ushgarak
...and in any case your central contention that they would not allow Nintendo to release early by bringing up their own releases ASAP is simply looking entirely wrong, along with your contention that they would be ready to do so, development wise (clearly, again, they are not, hence their talk about development times...). You only make yourself look sillier trying to fight it like that. You are clearly in error. You've already been made to look pretty foolish by the revelation of an early 2012 target for Nintendo- just go back and read your earlier posts again.
This.
The console announcement and "specs' offerings for game developers MUST happen in order for the developers to develop a game that fits the hardware API of the new system.
In other words, Nintendo MUST have a definitive system (hardware specs) and API so that a SDK can be given or at least developers have an idea on what to build for.
What does all of that mean? Console manufacturers must project out significantly greater than a year-out for the developers. In order to claim that only a year or year and a half is away for the MS console or the Sony console, they must also release an SDK and/or hardware specs in order to even traverse the API to have working software on the system.
There is literally no precedence to back up the claim that any console manufacturer is going to have a console go from unannounced to market in less than 18 months (that's being generous.) IMO, Nintendo announcing a release date for second quarter 2012 is STILL pushing it. They had better have a good reason for shafting third parties so thoroughly. Oh, wait, they do: Nintendo is the #1 first party software developer in video games (by sales.) lol
Jargon:
SDK - Sofware Development Kit. Not necessary to develop software but it is almost a must in for console manufacturers to provide.
API - Application programming interface. You literally cannot write a program without API. Even if they use a programming language that is very common (Java), they still have to provide API that is specific to their console...otherwise, there is LOTS of guesswork involved and it will have to be modified (which takes time and testing) to get it to work.
Hardware Specs - This one is more obvious than the other two but I feel it needs clarification. In order to program something that both looks good AND does not have frame-rate lag, you must know the hardware specs and the technologies they are capable of (for instance, there are some rendering technologies that are available in the PS3 that are not in the 360. Some software companies make use of those differences, some do not.)
Anyway, srankmissingnin, I hope that clears up the "why" for release dates. Unless MS or Sony make an announcement of a soon-to-be released SDK and API for their nexgen consoles, there's no way they can be in the same range as Nintendo. Again, Nintendo can pull off a one-year release date because they have such a massive first-party development team to keep things "under-wraps." My thoughts on that:
Nintendo is doing that because they do not have to worry about nexgen console competition. They can release a new console with little software install base and let the market fill in their library for 2 years with little competition in their market. (Seems odd that I would give a separate market, doesn't? That's just how it works. The sales will not, initially, eat into the other systems and software sales .It will be it's own market. Observe the 360s life when it had the market to itself.)
Originally posted by dadudemon
IMO, Nintendo announcing a release date for second quarter 2012 is STILL pushing it.
Not really...they aren't just unveiling it at E3, they're giving playable build demos too, so all they'll be waiting for is devs to finish up the launch titles.
I just hope they don't do a 3DS and release shit games on launch and make everyone wait a few months for decent games to come out...they sure messed that one up.
Because standard development time is at least 18 months these days, and on average far longer. If they're only just getting SDKs out to 3rd parties now, that's not much time at all to put a game together. And when that happens, developers tend to panic and either do sloppy/short proof-of-concept demos or quick conversions of existing games. And when that happens 3rd party games are panned at release, attaching a stigma to the console so that, yet again for Nintendo, the console has little 3rd party support.
A worst case scenario of course, but still. Such a short development window isn't a good idea.
Yes but that's assuming they're only just releasing the SDKs now. Everyone who has a SDK has NDAs in place, they won't be announcing anything until E3 at the earliest, and if Nintendo are giving playable build demos at E3, then it's fair to say they've been in development for a while. I doubt Nintendo will be leading the launch since they're busy pimping the 3DS and still releasing Wii games in that time.
If the specs are above the current gen systems, then there's no reason why current engines like Unreal shouldn't work on it, so all Nintendo had to do was say 'it supports Unreal' 2 years ago and you'll have a bunch of 3rd party games in development without even needing an SDK until now. It's completely different to when the Wii was coming out, since dev's would have had to have a SDK to work on the motion controls.
Anyway, all speculation til it launches I guess.