Originally posted by Astner
It's not clear in a rigorous sense, as in a mathematical congruence. But it's clear as day from a writer's perspective.
No, not even from a narrative sense. A writer, especially one like Kishimoto, loves to play on the unexpected by building the obvious up to be the answer. Right now, Kishimoto is playing up the possibility that it's Obito so much that it genuinely feels like he'll pull the rug out from under us.
Conversely, Kishimoto is predicting this reaction because he's aware of his more genre savvy readers, and so will surprise us by showing that Tobi really is Obito.
Honestly, it's a win-win.