Originally posted by juggernaut74
I'm not saying it was a bad movie but it didn't live up to the hype imo.
Same here. I'm starting to think maybe IM2 was better.
I was really disappointed when I first saw IM2. But it's grown on me over time. Justin Hammer just made me crack up. The Whiplash vs IM fight was well cool, as were Scarlett Johansson's action sequence.
Plus it did War Machine justice. It didn't just have him as some novice whose easily taken out.
I really like this posters break down on MOS.
General DemandSuperman Returns performance is a testament to the fact that Superman is popular with filmgoers. SR inflates to 245 million domestically, despite the vintage, gloomy, actionless marketing, despite not having the inflated 3D ticket prices Man Of Steel will have & of having pirates of the Caribbean 2 utterly decimate right after release. I, personally, consider Superman Return s the complete floor for a Superman films box office potential. Average marketing, decent film, massive competition. It is hard to imagine a faithful Superman film being less interesting than SR. So, we will examine what SR inflates to now to determine said ‘floor’.
SR had a funky opening. It opened on a Wednesday, spreading it’s opening out a bit. Plus, it’s first Monday and Tuesday were holidays, even further spreading out it. It achieved #s of 52.5m opening weekend (Fri-Sun), 84.5m Wed – Fri, and 106m the first 7 days. To properly apply this to MAN OF STEEL, we need to go further in our analysis and apply the same opening weekend circumstances MAN OF STEEL will experience and go further. I would estimate that, had SR opened on a Friday on a normal weekend, those numbers indicate an opening weekend in the 76-78 million range in 2006 dollars. In 2013 dollars, that is 93-96 million. Now, lets add in 3D inflation. This is not increasing the # of tickets sold – it is the same # of tickets estimated to have been sold in 2006, we are just increasing the average ticket price as 3D tickets account for a large percentage of all tickets sold & are more expensive. Let’s add 15% overall (a conservative estimate), using the 3D ticket ratio which says 3D tickers are roughly 40% more expensive and account for roughly 35-40% of all tickets sold. 93 – 96 million + 15% would put it’s opening range around 107 – 110m.
In other words, IF Superman Returns opened in 2013, on a normal Friday, was in 3 –D, AND sold the EXACT SAME number of tickets it would have sold in 2006, it would open in the 107 – 110 million ball park. That is with average marketing, decent reviews, and strong competition (DEVIL WEARS PRADA opens in the mid 30s).
As a result, lets consider the 107 – 110 million range the FLOOR for a Superman film on opening weekend. The only thing SR had going for it which MOS does not is the “novelty factor’ – SR was the first supes film in near 20 years while MOS only has 7 years. Of course, SR was so forgettable that I think this makes it irrelevant. MOS could not look any more different than SR either way.
Conclusion: general demand for a Superman film is quite high, as evidenced by the floor for a Superman films opening weekend is very high by most standards. If 1100m is the floor, the ceiling is clearly very high. Achieving that ceiling requires excellent marketing, an excellent film, and a great release date. Even though everybody says he is “old fashioned” and “boring”, SR sold a lot of tickets for its context on opening weekend.
Overall demand: 8/10, about as high a non sequel & non original adaption (i.e. 1989s BATMAN, 2002S SPIDERMAN), can get.
Production
Though Cavill is not a star, he is a stud, and his face makes the film instantly more appealing to women. Russell Crowe is the biggest star to join an entry level superhero film since Jack Nicholson. Though Shannon brings little to the table, Costner, Lane, Fishbourne, and Adams in particular are all more than recognizable to most film goers and instantly add credibility to this concept. Though none are certified mega draws, they INCREASE the credibility behind the brand ‘Superman’, which is the real draw. Superman is such a famous character with such potential that his mass appeal makes one of those guys everyone WANTS to like, but it just isn’t there yet because the potential has never been fulfilled, filmwise. Adding such quality actors AND getting Nolans name attached – the hottest name in Hollywood – is a big, big deal.
The mid June release date DEF. COULD BE BETTER – not sure when it hasn’t switched with Pacific Rim. That said, the lack of competition surrounding it at this point (only remotely threatening film within a week of release is MONSTERS UNIVERSITY), it isn’t too large of a concern at this point. SR – opening a week before the biggest opener ever at the time – is a great example of a TERRIBLE release date.
As far as the film itself, it looks modern, large scale, serious, and yet still a bit popcorny. It doesn’t look vintage of morose ala SR. It also looks action packed, with sci fi alien fighting, tornados, large scale city destruction, and above all, hand to hand super fight combat on display. Cavill has a very good looking face and ripped body, Adams is quite pretty, Crowe is full on Gladiator mode, and Snyder is a money shot king – the film is EXTREMELY marketable.
So, I guess give Production 9.5/10. Very credible cast and crew, extremely marketable film, only loses the .5 because the release date could be better.
Marketing:
It is my opinion that Man of steel trio of trailers is the best I have followed for a non sequel. One must understand that trailers for sequels, which feature established characters, are very different than non sequel trailers and as a result are difficult to compare. Man Of Steel’s trailers are right on level with SPIDER-MAN (2002) and TRANSFORMERS (2007), which have some of the best ever made. Prior to the trailers, folks didn’t hate the character, but it would take great trailers make the interest go from “somewhat there” to “definite”. The trailers have been every measure been nothing short of incredible, earning praise everywhere one could look, both for trailer editing and footage in general. They have aired with THE DARK KNIGHT RISES, THE HOBBIT, and IRON MAN 3 – 3 of the biggest films in the past 12 months. They will air with GATSBY and HANGOVER 3 – 2 more solid hits. By film trailer standards, they have a TON of views on youtube.
These ‘all time great’ trailers have gotten about as much exposure as one could wish. The tv spot campaign is just getting going, but the trailers have been well edited thus far. I see little no reason to expect something other than an enormous and extremely effective tv spot campaign. The film is also boosting several high profile tie ins, with Carls Jr, Kelloggs, Twizzlers, and Wal Mart all being involved with I am sure more to come.
Marketing wise, Man Of Steel has a very strong case best marketing of the summer. It isn’t IRON MAN 3, where the name alone assure 150m+ opening weekend. I am judging marketing by how effective it is at maximizing a films potential.
Marketing: 9.5/10. Posters are not that great, though there very unimportant.
Reviews
Unknown, but everything points to excellent. Lets assume they’re good.
Expectations
Man Of Steel opens late on Thursday, June 13th riding a wave of ‘overwhelming in quantity and extremely effective in quality’ marketing to glowing reviews. Everyone knows MOS will be a hit, the question is ‘how big’? All timer or just decent break out?
MIDNIGHT AND SNEAK PREVIEW GROSS
Transformers 2 (17 million) is the only big time action release which even close to MOS mid June date. School is still in session in many places, though college is out. So, while midnight potential simply is not at the 30-40 million ceiling it is in July, it is not at the 15-18 million cap it is in May. That said, MOS isn’t a sequel. Sequels experience the highest midnight numbers. I will say that between sneaks and midnight screenings, MOS should seek about 80% of the tickets Transformers 2 did. MOS will have more showings and they’re more popular now than they were then. That is ABOUT 16 million. Now, we add in 3D.
Look for sneak peaks and midnights for MAN OF STEEL to total in $22 million range. Thanks to TWITTER, word of mouth spreads rapidly that the film is awesome, and it looks likely to maximize it’s Friday potential.
POST MIDNIGHT FRIDAY GROSS
TOY STORY 3, opening on the same time 3 years ago, achieved 37 million on Friday. With inflation, and 3D added in, the same $ of tickets $45 million in today’s dollars. Though TS3 was a nostalgic sequel, it did not have as broad appeal as MAN OF STEEL. Plus, it was the type of film which truly lacked the ‘rush out’ factor, as evidenced by it’s extremely strong legs. I will say MAN OF STEELS grosses another $46 million during the day Friday – a little less than the # of tickets TOY STORY 3 sold.
Combined, MAN OF STEEL achieved an opening day $68 million, a towering amount given the word of mouth spreading like wildfire.
SATURDAY GROSS
Word of mouth is great, and the film will play well with families. Plus, there is little family competition. As a result, expect a slight drop from the 46 million yesterday, down to 42 million.
Man of Steel has a running 2 day total of $110 million.
SUNDAY GROSS
This Sunday is Fathers Day – a strong day the films. Another small drop is in store, this time down to $35 million.
TOTAL OPENING WEEKEND
Man of Steel opens to a large $145 million, shattering the June opening weekend record and making WB mess their pants around the globe. Everybody in the country is now aware that MAN OF STEEL is the break out of the summer, and with no big films remaining to garner mass excitement, everyone begins making plans to see it (or see it again).
THOUGHTS?
1ST MON - ThursdayMOS runs right on path with TOY STORY (despite opening much larger than), securing 60 million through weekdays. The break down is 17, 16, 14, 13. Man of Steel has achieved an opening week of $205 million. In just 7 days, it has outgrossed SUPERMAN RETURNS entire run.
2nd WEEKEND
Monsters U hits, opening in the mid 70s, knocking Superman off from #1 and eating into the kids audience. MAN OF STEEL drops 56% in it’s second week. That totals it at 63 million. MAN OF STEELS 10 day total stands at $268 million.
2ND WEEKDAYS
As word of mouth keeps kicking in, more schools are let out and the drops stabilize, Man of Steels 2nd week sees a drop of 41% from the previous week, totaling 36 million.
3rd WEEKEND
MAN OF STEEL faces direct competition from WHITE HOUSE DOWN, which performs well but not amazingly. MOS drops 45% that weekend, down to 34 million. MAN OF STEELS 17 day total is 338 million dollars.
3rd WEEK DAYS
This is July 4th week. More films are competition, with DESPICABLE ME 2 and LONE RANGER opening, eating into audiences and theaters/screen counts. Man of Steel drops another 40% this weekdays, aided by the holiday boost. 22 million over the Holidays.
4th Weekend
Same holiday weekend. Stiff competition, but more folks out at the movies. Man of steels 3 DAY holds nicely, dropping 41% to 21 million. Through 24 days, MAN OF STEEL has amassed a huge $381 million dollars.
4TH WEEKDAYS
No holiday boost, but still hold strong. Down just 35% from last week, making 14.3 million over the weekdays.
5th Weekend
More competition from PACIFIC RIM and GROWN UPS 2. Man Of Steels drops to 12.5 million.
At this point, the summers epic break out has 407 million. A multiplier of 3.4 awaits the rest of it, adding 31 million to it’s gross.
A bonafide mega break out ala TRANSFORMERS, Man of Steel ends its run as the summers biggest and most beloved film, total a staggering 438 million with overseas grosses putting near the $1 billion mark.
Here is the thing, toy story, which grossed over a billion barely passed a 109ml . In fact, it had two successful movies that helped it achieve this. MoS is a reboot that needs to prove itself like Batman Begins did. There are only a few films which opened on a June (dead month) which did over 100ml. They were all part of a successful trilogy.
Most websites, which have a strong record agree, ~85m
Originally posted by Golgo13My thoughts on that is that person obviously wants Superman to make all the money 😛
I really like this posters break down on MOS.THOUGHTS?
Some of his points are wrong, for instance stating that Russel Crowe is the biggest name since Jack Nicholson to work with a start up comic book movie.
There has also been Patrick Stewart(X-Men), Liam Neison(BB), Anthony Hopkins(Thor), Gary Oldman(BB), Tommy Lee Jones(Captain America). There are more but I will jsut list those off.
They also assume that SR is the absolute Floor for a Superman move. Which is wrong it was what is was an average movie that made average gains. The fact a much better movie opened next week is what hurt it is what happens all the time at the box offices when average movies get released.
I also think those numbers are overtly optimistic. Could they be reached? Possibly.
Will they be reached? Who knows
As was even mentioned in the post a mid June release is not ideal.
I could see MoS doing IM type money but what will ultimately decide how well it does is whether or not it's a good film or not.
Originally posted by Newjak
My thoughts on that is that person obviously wants Superman to make all the money 😛Some of his points are wrong, for instance stating that Russel Crowe is the biggest name since Jack Nicholson to work with a start up comic book movie.
There has also been Patrick Stewart(X-Men), Liam Neison(BB), Anthony Hopkins(Thor), Gary Oldman(BB), Tommy Lee Jones(Captain America). There are more but I will jsut list those off.
They also assume that SR is the absolute Floor for a Superman move. Which is wrong it was what is was an average movie that made average gains. The fact a much better movie opened next week is what hurt it is what happens all the time at the box offices when average movies get released.
I also think those numbers are overtly optimistic. Could they be reached? Possibly.
Will they be reached? Who knows
As was even mentioned in the post a mid June release is not ideal.
I could see MoS doing IM type money but what will ultimately decide how well it does is whether or not it's a good film or not.
Are you saying those guys are bigger? Because I think Russel Crowe is bigger than all those names you listed.
Firstly, I don't see how Russell Crowe being in MOS makes any major difference to it's box office draw. He'll help, sure, but having a relatively minor role and the fact that it's a Superman movie will ultimately prove larger factors, imo.
Second, guys like Patrick Stewart and Anthony Hopkins are household names more than Crowe is. Then add someone like Neeson, who's been largely prolific over the last decade or so.
Crowe hasn't had that many blockbusters over the last few years. Not to mention the fact that I think when most people heard about Crowe being in this movie, they were more surprised that he was in a movie like this and that he was acting again, rather than anything else.
The poster wasn't talking about house hold names, but movie stardom. Patrick Stewart and Anthony Hopkings aren't really box office draws. Sure, they are house hold names, but who do you honestly think makes more money? Hopkins or Crowe in their prime? I say Crowe and his box office numbers prove this.
Besides Liam Neeson, those guys aren't bigger than Crowe.