http://recode.net/2014/10/06/samsung-warns-of-lower-third-quarter-earnings/
Samsung is not doing too well
At the top end Apple is taking their market, and from the bottom they are being overtaken by Chinese makers. They'll need to figure something out or they'll go the way of the Nokia/Blackberry/Motorola (that's not really realistic, they are doing fine in many ways, but they are losing a lot in the smartphone market, both profit and marketshare wise)
Yep, I believe that assessment is accurate.
They'll continue to lose profits as they saturate the market with multiple variants of the same model.
Sony, LG, and Motorola are poised to take control of the high-end market whilst Oppo, Xiaomi, and Huawei will take control of the low/mid-end market.
They need to release their Tizen OS and hope that it will bring new innovations/features not yet present in iOS or Android OS.
This is their only chance to survive in the mobile phone industry.
Originally posted by AsbestosFlaygon
They need to release their Tizen OS and hope that it will bring new innovations/features not yet present in iOS or Android OS.
This is their only chance to survive in the mobile phone industry.
At least I know I wouldn't get the next Samsung flagship if it were running Tizen.
Edit: an interesting detail of this analogy is that both times, Apple created the first really great, kind of exclusive product and changed the way we look at the device class, only to be dethroned little after. I wonder if the iPhone will ever hit 5% market share.
I agree that Tizen probably won't take off, even if Samsung threw its whole weight behind it. I don't think many people really cares about Samsung, they are just as likely to buy an HTC or a Motorola again, if the marketing around it changed (Samsung far, far outspends Apple on marketing, which is funny considering so many people think Apple's success is solely due to people buying their marketing)
Also I don't agree with what you said about Apple. Apple never had the majority of the smartphone market. Who do you think dethroned Apple exactly?
Apple has about 11% of the smartphone market worldwide (and probably something like 80% of the high end, 500$+ market)
Apple also has 42% of the US smartphone market.
I think they are very happy in the categories that they play in (and take almost all the profits in the whole market). It's an interesting data point to compare all smartphones, from the 25$ to the 1000$ phone, but market share doesn't show that anyone's "winning" really.
I think it's fair to say that before Apple presented its idea of just what the smartphone should be, it was mostly a device class for special purposes. Sure, there was BlackBerry and there were a few UMTS phones around, but none really showed consumers what an internet powered handset could do. The iPhone really was the first consequently smart phone, it was the first phone with an operating system designed entirely around a touch screen that you'd use with your fingers. A pretty inspiring concept.
The same can be said about home computers and the Macintosh. Sure, some geeks had an Altair 8800 at home in the late 70s, but what who really considered it'd be a concept for everybody's home before the Macintosh showed people what the computer could be about?
So yeah, of course iPhone never was a market leader. And percentages will never be able to express what it did to the smartphone market. But Android really only found its place after Apple showed what these devices could do, and after Samsung and others started copying key features of the iPhone, and that is what I meant by dethroning. I think how we think of smartphones today was born with the original iPhone, which I owned and loved.
Originally posted by eezy45
I think it's fair to say that before Apple presented its idea of just what the smartphone should be, it was mostly a device class for special purposes. Sure, there was BlackBerry and there were a few UMTS phones around, but none really showed consumers what an internet powered handset could do. The iPhone really was the first consequently smart phone, it was the first phone with an operating system designed entirely around a touch screen that you'd use with your fingers. A pretty inspiring concept.
The same can be said about home computers and the Macintosh. Sure, some geeks had an Altair 8800 at home in the late 70s, but what who really considered it'd be a concept for everybody's home before the Macintosh showed people what the computer could be about?So yeah, of course iPhone never was a market leader. And percentages will never be able to express what it did to the smartphone market. But Android really only found its place after Apple showed what these devices could do, and after Samsung and others started copying key features of the iPhone, and that is what I meant by dethroning. I think how we think of smartphones today was born with the original iPhone, which I owned and loved.
Hmm, I definitely agree with Apple reinventing and defining these categories, I just don't agree with the word "dethroning". Looking at it right now, Apple makes about 80% of the smartphone profits in the world and about 50% of the PC Hardware profits. They are the king in the categories they play, everyone else (except for Samsung for a while) is struggling and fighting for the scraps.
Originally posted by Bardock42
Hmm, I definitely agree with Apple reinventing and defining these categories, I just don't agree with the word "dethroning". Looking at it right now, Apple makes about 80% of the smartphone profits in the world and about 50% of the PC Hardware profits. They are the king in the categories they play, everyone else (except for Samsung for a while) is struggling and fighting for the scraps.
To me, the most obvious troll on a forum is the "citation needed" troll. This is the type of troll that asks for a citation for information that is easily found with a google search.
I'm not one of those trolls. If a person makes a claim that is readily verifiable, I won't be a troll and ask, "Please provide a citation."
Anyway, I wanted to point out that you were right and I found a "citation" for your "nearly 50%" comment:
http://fortune.com/2013/04/16/pie-chart-of-the-day-apples-oversize-share-of-pc-profits/
If you pointed this (the source) out, previously, ignore this post. I just wanted to make it known that you do not have to feed the "citation needed" trolls and I find those types not worth discussing topics with.
Originally posted by Bardock42
Hmm, I definitely agree with Apple reinventing and defining these categories, I just don't agree with the word "dethroning". Looking at it right now, Apple makes about 80% of the smartphone profits in the world and about 50% of the PC Hardware profits. They are the king in the categories they play, everyone else (except for Samsung for a while) is struggling and fighting for the scraps.
I guess it really depends on how you measure success. I think it's only logical that a company that creates dozens of variations of a device to please everybody's needs and meet everybody's taste will have smaller profit margins than one only serving the high-end market with two or three models. However, if half the world is using an Lenovo computer and a Samsung phone, it does imply a fair amount of success. Android Apps and Windows programs will obviously reach a much greater user base thanks to that.
It is a different measure of success, yes. But it is unfair, to measure Apple on an unrelated axis, when they have consciously chosen to play in a different market. The people touting market share as "Android" winning, are comparing different games. Coincidentally, there is still more money made on apps in the iOS App Store than on the Google Play Store. Even though Android is on more than 6 times more devices.
Other topic though: Financial Potential of the Apple Watch.
I've been thinking about what the potential impact of the Apple Watch may be for Apple's bottom line. There are mainly three variables we have to determine to find that out that's units, average selling price, and margins.
For the units I have no real idea whatsoever. I'll just assume it will be anywhere between 1 million and 10 million devices a quarter. For some reference, the smartwatch market in 2013 was something like 2 million devices, most of which were the Samsung Galaxy Gear, which were often bundled or given away with a purchase of a Note for example, the technology wearables market altogether (fitbit, fuelband, pebble, android wear, etc.) is apparently going to be something like 15 million devices in 2014. I do think Apple will outsell the Galaxy Gear though definitely, so like I said, I'm going to put my low ball estimate at 4 million devices per year, and my insanely optimistic estimate at 40 million per year (this is for the first year, comparing to it the iPad sold 15 million devices in the first 9 months or 5 million per quarter on average). So lets take 4 million, 20 million as 40 million as variables.
For Average Selling Price, Apple said that it will start at 350$, which I assume will be for the Sports Edition with a plastic band. The steel one I assume will be somewhere between 500$ and 1000$. And the Gold one probably somewhere between 2000$ and 10000$. Of course depending on the price they'll sell more or less, but for the sake of why the hell not lets just assume ASPs of 400$ or 600$.
For margins you could look at the material costs, maybe factor in some secondary costs, R&D, logistics whatever, but I don't really want to do that, so I'll just set them to the 40% (around what Apple does on average) and 60% (higher, because luxury items often have insane margins)
So now some calculations for a quarter
Units - ASP - Margin - Revenue - Profits
1m - 400 - 40 - 400m - 160m
1m - 400 - 60 - 400m - 240m
1m - 600 - 40 - 600m - 240m
1m - 600 - 60 - 600m - 360m
5m - 400 - 40 - 1600m - 640m
5m - 400 - 60 - 1600m - 960m
5m - 600 - 40 - 2400m - 960m
5m - 600 - 60 - 2400m - 1440m
10m - 400 - 40 - 4000m - 1600m
10m - 400 - 60 - 4000m - 2400m
10m - 600 - 40 - 6000m - 2400m
10m - 600 - 60 - 6000m - 3600m
So yeah, what I'm trying to say is, I have basically no idea how much of an impact it may have, but prolly somewhere between 160$ million and 3,6$ billion
What do you guys think, how much of an impact will the Apple Watch have on Apple's bottom line
Originally posted by Bardock42
It is a different measure of success, yes. But it is unfair, to measure Apple on an unrelated axis, when they have consciously chosen to play in a different market. The people touting market share as "Android" winning, are comparing different games. Coincidentally, there is still more money made on apps in the iOS App Store than on the Google Play Store. Even though Android is on more than 6 times more devices.Other topic though: Financial Potential of the Apple Watch.
I've been thinking about what the potential impact of the Apple Watch may be for Apple's bottom line. There are mainly three variables we have to determine to find that out that's units, average selling price, and margins.
For the units I have no real idea whatsoever. I'll just assume it will be anywhere between 1 million and 10 million devices a quarter. For some reference, the smartwatch market in 2013 was something like 2 million devices, most of which were the Samsung Galaxy Gear, which were often bundled or given away with a purchase of a Note for example, the technology wearables market altogether (fitbit, fuelband, pebble, android wear, etc.) is apparently going to be something like 15 million devices in 2014. I do think Apple will outsell the Galaxy Gear though definitely, so like I said, I'm going to put my low ball estimate at 4 million devices per year, and my insanely optimistic estimate at 40 million per year (this is for the first year, comparing to it the iPad sold 15 million devices in the first 9 months or 5 million per quarter on average). So lets take 4 million, 20 million as 40 million as variables.
For Average Selling Price, Apple said that it will start at 350$, which I assume will be for the Sports Edition with a plastic band. The steel one I assume will be somewhere between 500$ and 1000$. And the Gold one probably somewhere between 2000$ and 10000$. Of course depending on the price they'll sell more or less, but for the sake of why the hell not lets just assume ASPs of 400$ or 600$.
For margins you could look at the material costs, maybe factor in some secondary costs, R&D, logistics whatever, but I don't really want to do that, so I'll just set them to the 40% (around what Apple does on average) and 60% (higher, because luxury items often have insane margins)
So now some calculations for a quarter
Units - ASP - Margin - Revenue - Profits
1m - 400 - 40 - 400m - 160m
1m - 400 - 60 - 400m - 240m
1m - 600 - 40 - 600m - 240m
1m - 600 - 60 - 600m - 360m
5m - 400 - 40 - 1600m - 640m
5m - 400 - 60 - 1600m - 960m
5m - 600 - 40 - 2400m - 960m
5m - 600 - 60 - 2400m - 1440m
10m - 400 - 40 - 4000m - 1600m
10m - 400 - 60 - 4000m - 2400m
10m - 600 - 40 - 6000m - 2400m
10m - 600 - 60 - 6000m - 3600mSo yeah, what I'm trying to say is, I have basically no idea how much of an impact it may have, but prolly somewhere between 160$ million and 3,6$ billion
What do you guys think, how much of an impact will the Apple Watch have on Apple's bottom line
I think you will see up to 500k units on the watch sold perhaps in 2 to 4 quarters. Maybe less. It should not take off. It is not considered all that great and press is marginal to negative on even pro-Apple sites.
I believe polls have been done, albeit unscientific. But it seems the overwhelming majority of techies see no need for the watch.
Only people like you, fans of Apple with plenty of disposable income, will purchase it. It is more like a novelty item.
Originally posted by Astner
Your fanatic dedication to promote a Fortune 500 company in times of journalistic criticism is unbecoming of you. Get the iPhone out of your ass and do something with your life.
I think Bardock is not as bad as you say but this is a slightly accurate description of him. 313
I'd say I'm a much bigger fanboy of Lotus cars than he is of Apple. At least he can be objective about these topics, usually.
Originally posted by Astner
Your fanatic dedication to promote a Fortune 500 company in times of journalistic criticism is unbecoming of you. Get the iPhone out of your ass and do something with your life.
Your phrasing "times of journalistic criticism" makes it seem as if there is something new about the media reaction towards Apple. This is not the case. Apple has faced excessive media criticism for the longest time. Some of the criticism has been valid (few and far between, imo) most of it is hyperbolic, based on faulty assumptions or just lack of journalistic integrity. Saying negative things about Apple has almost become an industry by itself. People like Rob Enderle, Jay Yarow, Dan Lyons, Henry Blodget basically make a living out of unfounded, doom-saying articles about Apple.
I'm not uncritical about Apple myself, there are many things that are bothersome with Apple, their cloud offerings are far below par, the file systems they use on Macs is outdated, they do need better Q&A for their software and selling 8GB and even 16GB phones today creates a horrible user experience, and they should not do it, however the echo-chamber of Anti-Apple rhetoric does not discuss the accurate and important criticisms, rather they jump on silly "-gate" stories, that always turn out to not be an actual problem in the end, they compare incomparable specs to show how Apple's devices are allegedly worse disregarding any other factors, they paint Apple users (of which there are something like 400 million) as blind, cultist, sheep that buy Apple only for their marketing, which is a preposterous accusation, considering that Samsung far, far outspends Apple on marketing.
So yeah, I am a fan of Apple as a business and its products and I do like to talk about consumer technology. I don't think there's anything wrong with that however.
Originally posted by dadudemon
I think you will see up to 500k units on the watch sold perhaps in 2 to 4 quarters. Maybe less. It should not take off. It is not considered all that great and press is marginal to negative on even pro-Apple sites.I believe polls have been done, albeit unscientific. But it seems the overwhelming majority of techies see no need for the watch.
Only people like you, fans of Apple with plenty of disposable income, will purchase it. It is more like a novelty item.
Well, it is a possibility. However I find the estimate, that Apple's watch would sell less than Samsung's offering somewhat unlikely. Smartwatches are a niche product currently, hence why any estimates are so hard. I would consider 500k after a year definitely a pretty big failure on Apple's part though. But lets add your low estimate, 125k per quarter, ASP of 350, margin of 40%
0.125m - 350 - 40 - 43.75m - 17.5m
And you are right the reaction has been tepid, however, that was also the case for the iPad, and that sold well.
It's fascinating to see how different the approach to market for the Apple Watch is compared to the iPhone, iPad, etc.
To me, China, is a market I can't judge at all, it seems like the fashion there may be very, very positive toward an Apple Watch, perhaps even the high end luxury ones.
Originally posted by Bardock42
Well, it is a possibility. However I find the estimate, that Apple's watch would sell less than Samsung's offering somewhat unlikely. Smartwatches are a niche product currently, hence why any estimates are so hard. I would consider 500k after a year definitely a pretty big failure on Apple's part though. But lets add your low estimate, 125k per quarter, ASP of 350, margin of 40%0.125m - 350 - 40 - 43.75m - 17.5m
And you are right the reaction has been tepid, however, that was also the case for the iPad, and that sold well.
This was a level-headed response. Astner, suck-it. 313
To address what you're saying, I do not think the iPad and the Apple Watch are comparable. Anticipation and hype for the iPad was much much greater than the Watch. In fact, I don't remember any places except anti-Apple f*cktards being against the iPad. It seemed nearly universally positively anticipated.
By the way, the Otterbox cases came in for everyone at the office. 🙂 The "bendgate" shenanigans have ceased at our office. Out of the 13 that got the new iPhones, 4 of them ended up with bent phones. Out of those four, 3 got their phones replaced and the 4th just simply straightened his phone and put the Otterbox case on.
It should be noted that all four of those people put their phones in their back pockets and the other 9 put them in belt carrying cases...which looks dumb (but, hey, they avoided bent phones). 4 out of 4 bent phones, when carried in the pockets, seems very telling of how that "only 9" number from Apple smells like very stinky bullshit.
Is bendgate being blown out of proportion? Nope. Not even slightly. It seems ridiculously underblown. Apple should be beaten savagely (metaphorically) for such an atrocious oversight. People are being too lenient on Apple. At first, I thought the bendgate thing was overblown on some places and underblown on others. Now I just think it is nearly universally underblown and this should have been a much bigger deal. Apple-tards, who buy Apple products regardless of the review, are the problem. There is NO way Apple was not aware their phone was a piece of shit. Their testing is probably among the best in the world for consumer electronics. Some senior project manager (or managers) accepted the risk. Their risk assessment showed that their market is full of sheep that will always buy their products: that's true. So why would they be worried?
Maybe the reason this pisses me off so much is that I wanted this phone so badly. It was the solution to all of my problems with Apple. Apple fixed nearly every other complaint I had about them. The last major complain I had left was about their small phones. I watch Netfilx nearly EVERYDAY on my phone (and have for years) because I workout or have long commutes. A tiny ass-phone (ass-phone -> bendgate -> lol) is just not going to cut it.
But...if the iPhone 6S+ is sturdier, you can bet your sweetass that I'll skip the Galaxy Note 5 and buy the iPhone (Unless the Note 5 bring something to the table, new, that I like more).
Originally posted by AsbestosFlaygon
I find the Apple Watch ugly, no matter how hyped it may be.The design is just plain unattractive, no matter what angle I look at it.
Would've been better if they made it slimmer and sharpened corners instead of rounded corners.
Something like a large JLC Reverso.
That's fair enough, tastes will definitely differ. I personally find it very nice looking. I'm sure in time they will extend their offerings to more and more different collections. I am excited about the potential.
Originally posted by dadudemon
This was a level-headed response. Astner, suck-it. 313To address what you're saying, I do not think the iPad and the Apple Watch are comparable. Anticipation and hype for the iPad was much much greater than the Watch. In fact, I don't remember any places except anti-Apple f*cktards being against the iPad. It seemed nearly universally positively anticipated.
By the way, the Otterbox cases came in for everyone at the office. 🙂 The "bendgate" shenanigans have ceased at our office. Out of the 13 that got the new iPhones, 4 of them ended up with bent phones. Out of those four, 3 got their phones replaced and the 4th just simply straightened his phone and put the Otterbox case on.
It should be noted that all four of those people put their phones in their back pockets and the other 9 put them in belt carrying cases...which looks dumb (but, hey, they avoided bent phones). 4 out of 4 bent phones, when carried in the pockets, seems very telling of how that "only 9" number from Apple smells like very stinky bullshit.
Is bendgate being blown out of proportion? Nope. Not even slightly. It seems ridiculously underblown. Apple should be beaten savagely (metaphorically) for such an atrocious oversight. People are being too lenient on Apple. At first, I thought the bendgate thing was overblown on some places and underblown on others. Now I just think it is nearly universally underblown and this should have been a much bigger deal. Apple-tards, who buy Apple products regardless of the review, are the problem. There is NO way Apple was not aware their phone was a piece of shit. Their testing is probably among the best in the world for consumer electronics. Some senior project manager (or managers) accepted the risk. Their risk assessment showed that their market is full of sheep that will always buy their products: that's true. So why would they be worried?
Maybe the reason this pisses me off so much is that I wanted this phone so badly. It was the solution to all of my problems with Apple. Apple fixed nearly every other complaint I had about them. The last major complain I had left was about their small phones. I watch Netfilx nearly EVERYDAY on my phone (and have for years) because I workout or have long commutes. A tiny ass-phone (ass-phone -> bendgate -> lol) is just not going to cut it.
But...if the iPhone 6S+ is sturdier, you can bet your sweetass that I'll skip the Galaxy Note 5 and buy the iPhone (Unless the Note 5 bring something to the table, new, that I like more).
You are right, it was somewhat different with the iPad. In particular the price of $499 was mind boggling at the time. Still I feel positive about the potential of the Apple Watch. I'm very excited for the next year.
And hopefully the next version of the iPhone will be to your taste, I think you'd ultimately enjoy an iPhone the most. I don't agree with your line about Apple consumers being sheep, since I think, even looking at the potential of bending, there is still a perfectly reasonable case to be made for buying the iPhone 6 Plus, but I don't think it's worthwhile to argue about that.
Oh, I am also really excited about next weeks Apple event, at the moment I know almost nothing about what will be revealed, which always makes it most interesting. I assume new iPads, in whatever form, and maybe new Macs (Intel has kinda dropped the ball on the chips of course, but maybe a Retina iMac? Fingers crossed), possibly something about Apple TV. Should be a good event.
Perhaps a bit premature, obviously Samsung's fall has been significant, but lets give them some time. Still I can't help but find this piece amusing http://techpinions.com/samsung-schadenfreude-and-the-fall-of-the-church-of-market-share/35451
Originally posted by Bardock42
You are right, it was somewhat different with the iPad. In particular the price of $499 was mind boggling at the time. Still I feel positive about the potential of the Apple Watch. I'm very excited for the next year.
I hope you like it! 😄
Originally posted by Bardock42
And hopefully the next version of the iPhone will be to your taste, I think you'd ultimately enjoy an iPhone the most. I don't agree with your line about Apple consumers being sheep, since I think, even looking at the potential of bending, there is still a perfectly reasonable case to be made for buying the iPhone 6 Plus, but I don't think it's worthwhile to argue about that.
Couple of things:
1. I think a large enough portion of their consumer base is in it for the "swag" that they can count of them to always buy their product. It acts as a hedge against their mistake? What is the word I am looking for? They made a mistake but they knew they were making it so it was not a mistake but actually something that they knew and accepted. Calculated risk? Seems too wordy...surely there is a word that means "moving forward with a known and accepted weakness in a product or idea"? It is not a defect.
2. You said case n'stuff. lol...
Originally posted by Bardock42
Oh, I am also really excited about next weeks Apple event, at the moment I know almost nothing about what will be revealed, which always makes it most interesting. I assume new iPads, in whatever form, and maybe new Macs (Intel has kinda dropped the ball on the chips of course, but maybe a Retina iMac? Fingers crossed), possibly something about Apple TV. Should be a good event.
Any news?
Originally posted by Bardock42
Perhaps a bit premature, obviously Samsung's fall has been significant, but lets give them some time. Still I can't help but find this piece amusing http://techpinions.com/samsung-schadenfreude-and-the-fall-of-the-church-of-market-share/35451
This made me laugh the most:
"Why Can’t Apple Be More Like Samsung?
Remember when the analysts were saying that Apple should be more like Samsung? Seems like only yesterday. Oh wait! It WAS only yesterday."
hahaha
Cheeeerist!