I am surprised Rubio got a state! (Minnesota) And that Cruz got two, for that matter.
Maybe he can hold on til the convention (heh, it's funny their goal is literally 'hold on'😉.
Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
Sanders did a hell of a job.
Yea, he put up a good run, and I'm pretty impressed how he did in the two caucus states and that he did swing Oklahoma by 10% when a few days ago it looked like it might've gone Hillary, but it does look like things are over for him.
The margins she's winning in states like Alabama (60% win margin), Georgia (40%), and most of the others (aside from Mass, which was a 10% win, pretty much everything was a 30% win, including Texas and it's giant delegate pile) means delegate wise, he's getting very drastically less.
Originally posted by |King Joker|
So Bernie has Vermont and Oklahoma and will almost certainly get Colorado and Minnesota. If he loses Massachusetts it will probably be by less than 3 or 4%, so all in all I think he's done well enough to survive Super Tuesday, at least in terms of keeping hopes high in his campaign.
Win margins, it's all about win/loss margins.
While he did well in how many states, she did very well in margins of victory.
Georgia's 40% win for Hillary gives her about as many delegates as all the states Bernie won, since most of them were 20% or less.
States like Virginia doing 30% instead of 20% as polled means a good number of delegates. Texas is a flood of delegates. The Southern states went so far Hillary that she's looking to expand her lead by about 160 delegates tonight. Which'll put her not far from the 200 delegate lead mark.
To put it in footrace terms, she's just about lapped him here.
It seems despite Minnesota, Rubio's considered to have had a fairly poor night. He finished behind Cruz in a lot of southern precincts, which means fewer delegates (unlike the Democrats which are proportional, a lot of them are 'first place gets X, second gets Y, third gets nada' unless someone's really dominant).
Originally posted by BackFire
Bernie isn't leaving anytime soon. He's likely to stay in until the convention. He's got the money despite not having super pacs and special interest lobbyists blowing their loads of cash all over him, no reason for him to get out.
Word is Hillary doesn't even want him gone, he's good for bringing attention to the party and as long as he's around, Republican SuperPACs are less likely to go on the attack cross-party in favor of focusing more on their fight.
However, there's a difference between being in the race, and being in the contention. In terms of really being in the running, it's over. Which doesn't say when he's actually going to hang up his hat, just that his odds of coming out on top are pretty over. He's in the 300-somethings delegate total, she's in the 500-somethings. And that's just pledged.
Footrace analogy again, he can see his opponent has pulled a lead he can't catch up with, but he's still running to finish the race in style for a shiny silver.
Originally posted by Q99
I am surprised Rubio got a state! (Minnesota) And that Cruz got two, for that matter.Maybe he can hold on til the convention (heh, it's funny their goal is literally 'hold on'😉.
Yea, he put up a good run, and I'm pretty impressed how he did in the two caucus states and that he did swing Oklahoma by 10% when a few days ago it looked like it might've gone Hillary, but it does look like things are over for him.
The margins she's winning in states like Alabama (60% win margin), Georgia (40%), and most of the others (aside from Mass, which was a 10% win, pretty much everything was a 30% win, including Texas and it's giant delegate pile) means delegate wise, he's getting very drastically less.
It is a bit worrisome that Clinton dominates the Democratic primaries in states that will almost certainly not go Democratic in the General Election (or I guess you could claim that's a plus, but I don't think so)
Originally posted by |King Joker|
Many of the southern states were expected for Hillary to win though. Minnesota, Colorado, and Oklahoma weren't guaranteed for Bernie at all, yet he won them. Now we're moving on to states that largely favor Bernie demographically so he can start scooping up more states and delegates.
Note, in a lot of those Southern states she was predicted to win by +20, and she won most of them by +30 or more. Hillary beat the polls yesterday, pretty solidly.
Hillary is doing +16 above 'break even' numbers
Minnesota, Colorado, and Oklahoma weren't guaranteed for Bernie... but they were must-wins, as was Massachusetts.
And the margin of victory is still key. Clinton gained more from her 30/40/60% wins (in bigger states, no less) than Bernie did from his 10/20% wins.
Bill already violating polling laws.
Are these people for real?
Originally posted by Q99And what are polling margins for the remaining states?
Note, in a lot of those Southern states she was predicted to win by +20, and she won most of them by +30 or more. Hillary beat the polls yesterday, pretty solidly.Hillary is doing +16 above 'break even' numbers
Minnesota, Colorado, and Oklahoma weren't guaranteed for Bernie... but they were must-wins, as was Massachusetts.
And the margin of victory is still key. Clinton gained more from her 30/40/60% wins (in bigger states, no less) than Bernie did from his 10/20% wins.
Originally posted by Newjak
And what are polling margins for the remaining states?
All the results, grouped by winner, ranked from most to least, first the vote margin and then what that means in delegates advantage (I.e. Alabama has 37 total, Bernie got 4, so I write that as a 33 advantage to Hillary)-
Clinton wins-
Alabama, +60, 33 delegates
Georgia, +40, 43 delegates
Arkansas, +36, 11 delegates
Tennessee, +34, 18 delegates
Texas, +32, 74 delegates
Virginia, +29, 29 delegates
Massachusetts, +1, 2 delegates
Territories-
America Samoa, 73%, 2 delegates
Sanders wins-
Vermont, +72, 10 delegates
Minnesota, +24, 18 delegates
Colorado, +20, 11 delegates
Oklahoma, +10, 4 delegates
Give or take one or two, this is just a preliminary count, but you can see how a bigger margin in Tennessee cancels out the smaller win of Minnesota, which is Bernie's biggest delegate winner of the night.
And how Texas... well, yea, Texas, it has 170 to begin with and combined with a sizable proportional win, that's a pile of delegates. Whether or not one wins Massachusetts by 1 point really doesn't matter for jack, while winning it by 10 points would've been a reasonable amount (the state has 88 total, they just got split 45 to 43).
Vermont is the only state where the opposing candidate was kept below the delegate threshold of 15%, so this 10 is every delegate in the state. Something of a minor silver lining, just 2% more and Hillary would've snagged delegates, but you can see how sizable win margins in big states matters a lot more than whether or not one has won a number of states by a smaller amount.
Originally posted by Newjak
I wasn't asking for last nights results I was asking what the polls are looking like for the remaining states like Ohio, Florida, California, etc
Oh.
Ohio +15 Clinton (as-of Feb 20s, one poll), Florida +25/26 according to two Feb polls, and +36 according to a January poll.
Migichan is the state that Bernie's campaigns have it's hopes pegged on, and polls range from +10 Clinton to +34, all from February.
California only had a poll back around new years, and +11 Clinton.
You may have noticed that Bernie leads in none of these, but some are pretty far out.
Originally posted by |King Joker|
If Hillary was only up by 11 around New Years in California I wouldn't be surprised if Sanders could catch up and win Cali. by the time their primary comes up.
With the two things to note on that- by that point she may have the needed number of the delegates (very likely, even), and even if she didn't, Bernie doesn't need to catch up, he needs margins of victory. A 2% win in Cali matters little, and even a 10% isn't that much.
Bombshells on Hilary FBI investigation
http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/271387-fbi-director-i-am-closely-involved-with-clinton-email-investigation
Secondly Loretta Lynch was asked about a grand jury being put together.
It's not against the law to say yes, so she does not want to go on record as lying.
http://freebeacon.com/politics/loretta-lynch-wont-say-if-a-grand-jury-has-been-convened-in-clinton-email-investigation/
This is looking worse and worse. The director is heavily involved and he is not the type to let something illegal slide.
Some Bernie supporters will not be voting for Hillary if she wins the nomination: http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/mar/1/hillary-clinton-cant-count-on-bernie-sanders-suppo/