General Primary Discussion Thread

Carson's in first, but you know, I don't see him as having much chance.

Trump has his business experience to fall back on in the next phase of the primary (the 'increased scrutiny to make sure they can do the job' phase), but Carson I don't think has the chops to sell himself as having the full knowledge base.

Heck, his being there probably helps Trump, since Trump does know how to manage better than Carson and he'll look good in comparison / more scrutiny will be aimed at Carson.

There's traditionally one or more "does well for a bit, then falls off after being put in the limeline" candidates each primary, and while Trump may shake that status, I do not believe Carson can.

I guess your still on the short bus and can't see a coming ticket of Trump/Carson..is life better with your head in the clouds?

I think a Trump/Carson ticket would be devastating for the Republican chances.

But while Trumo is a clown, there's a lot of worse candidates policy-wise.

Originally posted by Bardock42
I think a Trump/Carson ticket would be devastating for the Republican chances.

Yea, I have very little fear of that ticket, it'd be tactically in the Democratic favor IMO.

It'd be really appealing to those who want outsiders, but that's an issue in the GOP, less so the general electorate.

If you think a Trump/Carson ticket would lose against a Hilary/Castro ticket, you are gravely mistaken.

Originally posted by Bardock42
I think a Trump/Carson ticket would be devastating for the Republican chances.

Agreed. Let us hope it happens then.

Can't see either wanting the VP spot, especially for the other guy. Trump would also be stupid in choosing Carson, as Carson brings nothing to Trump's table. Trump would need to pick someone with great political experience to sell his Presidency to the masses.

Originally posted by Robtard
Agreed. Let us hope it happens then.

Can't see either wanting the VP spot, especially for the other guy. Trump would also be stupid in choosing Carson as he brings nothing to Trump's table. Trump would need to pick someone with great political experience to sell his Presidency to the masses.

Apparently you have not been watching the news, this is the year for outsiders.

Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
If you think a Trump/Carson ticket would lose against a Hilary/Castro ticket, you are gravely mistaken.

Well, that's for the election to decide, ain't it? 🙂

Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
Apparently you have not been watching the news, this is the year for outsiders.

Certainly on the Republican side- two outsiders over 20%, one insider over 10% with another outsider right on his heels.

On the Democrat side, though? The outsider has a solid 30%, but that's around twenty points behind the insider, and that performance is not unheard of with prior outsiders. And even this outsider is less outsider-y than the two biggest Republican ones, being an elected politician.

Which of course does leave the question, what do the independents and moderates think? I don't think they have the same level of outsider mania.

Originally posted by Q99
Well, that's for the election to decide, ain't it? 🙂

Certainly on the Republican side- two outsiders over 20%, one insider over 10% with another outsider right on his heels.

On the Democrat side, though? The outsider has a solid 30%, but that's around twenty points behind the insider, and that performance is not unheard of with prior outsiders. And even this outsider is less outsider-y than the two biggest Republican ones, being an elected politician.

Which of course does leave the question, what do the independents and moderates think? I don't think they have the same level of outsider mania.

You do realize when this heard gets thinned out those 20% will rise..cmon now. I know you like to be unfair, but lets be real. You are comparing two sides and expect them to be equal. When there is really only two candidates on one side and 11-15 on the other..

Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
You do realize when this heard gets thinned out those 20% will rise..cmon now. I know you like to be unfair, but lets be real. You are comparing two sides and expect them to be equal. When there is really only two candidates on one side and 11-15 on the other..

That's really the question though, isn't it?

When the herd gets thinned, will the outsiders or the insiders rise. We don't know yet.

Although 50% "outsider" vote is a very large...might not play as well with moderates though.

Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
You do realize when this heard gets thinned out those 20% will rise..cmon now. I know you like to be unfair, but lets be real. You are comparing two sides and expect them to be equal. When there is really only two candidates on one side and 11-15 on the other..

Dang, did you get replaced with a doppleganger? You're actually engaging on the subject! With arguments that make sense!

As other candidates fall off, I see that hurting Carson. Maybe Trump can get them, but most establishment supports are, IMO, gonna want someone with some resume- which means Rubio, Cruz, Trump, and not so much Ben Carson.

Most of the ones looking to fall off are establishment ones, too. Only Fiorina of the Outsiders is likely to drop, and she's already fallen enough that there's only so much to add.

You could conceivably also have a three way split situation- where the Outsiders are divided pretty evenly, the Insiders focus on one, and that one, while still having less than the total combined opposition, may be able to compete with the outsiders. It's been known to happen, and one of the dangers of a three way race.

Like Bardock says, I'm not sure how the moderates will react to the outsiders either.

YouTube video

Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson told graduates during a commencement address in 1998 that he believed the pyramids in Egypt were built by the biblical figure Joseph to store grain, and not, as most archaeologists contend, as tombs for pharaohs:

“My own personal theory is that Joseph built the pyramids to store grain,” Carson said. “Now all the archeologists think that they were made for the pharaohs’ graves. But, you know, it would have to be something awfully big if you stop and think about it. And I don’t think it’d just disappear over the course of time to store that much grain."

At the commencement for Andrews University, a school associated with the Seventh-day Adventist Church, Carson also dismissed the notion that aliens were somehow involved in the construction of the pyramids:

"And when you look at the way that the pyramids are made, with many chambers that are hermetically sealed, they’d have to be that way for various reasons. And various of scientists have said, ‘Well, you know there were alien beings that came down and they have special knowledge and that’s how—’ you know, it doesn’t require an alien being when God is with you."

😆

"My own personal theory."

It's like you can't even listen.

Originally posted by Q99
Dang, did you get replaced with a doppleganger? You're actually engaging on the subject! With arguments that make sense!

As other candidates fall off, I see that hurting Carson. Maybe Trump can get them, but most establishment supports are, IMO, gonna want someone with some resume- which means Rubio, Cruz, Trump, and not so much Ben Carson.

Most of the ones looking to fall off are establishment ones, too. Only Fiorina of the Outsiders is likely to drop, and she's already fallen enough that there's only so much to add.

You could conceivably also have a three way split situation- where the Outsiders are divided pretty evenly, the Insiders focus on one, and that one, while still having less than the total combined opposition, may be able to compete with the outsiders. It's been known to happen, and one of the dangers of a three way race.

Like Bardock says, I'm not sure how the moderates will react to the outsiders either.

How is other candidates dropping off going to hurt Carson, when he leads in some states? That makes almost no sense.

That's like saying "well all my competition dropped out and now I'm gonna drop out as well because potatoes."

Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
"My own personal theory."

It's like you can't even listen.

Is that supposed to somehow make it any less ridiculous? 😆

Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
How is other candidates dropping off going to hurt Carson, when he leads in some states? That makes almost no sense.

That's like saying "well all my competition dropped out and now I'm gonna drop out as well because potatoes."

😂

Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
You do realize when this heard gets thinned out those 20% will rise..cmon now. I know you like to be unfair, but lets be real. You are comparing two sides and expect them to be equal. When there is really only two candidates on one side and 11-15 on the other..

👆

Exactly.

Originally posted by Adam_PoE
Is that supposed to somehow make it any less ridiculous? 😆

You worship Satan, do you know how ridiculous that sounds?

Originally posted by Time-Immemorial
How is other candidates dropping off going to hurt Carson, when he leads in some states? That makes almost no sense.

That's like saying "well all my competition dropped out and now I'm gonna drop out as well because potatoes."

Hurt in the sense it helps other candidates more. If the drop-outs go to people other than him, and he finds himself in third place... there goes his chances.

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Also, another thing:

GOP primary rules may screw over Trump, Carson, and Cruz

In a few months, after Iowa and New Hampshire begin to winnow the field, the GOP nomination race could boil down to an epic final between a candidate with a more pragmatic image, such as Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina or Jeb Bush, and a more conservative one, such as Ted Cruz, Ben Carson or Donald Trump.1

If that happens, the moderate finalist — like Mitt Romney and John McCain before him or her — will have a hidden structural advantage: the party’s delegate math and geography.

There are plenty of reasons to be cautious of national polls that show Trump and Carson leading. They may fail to screen out casual voters, for instance, and leaders at this point in past years have eventually tanked. But perhaps the biggest reason to ditch stock in these polls is that they’re simulating a national vote that will never take place.

In reality, the GOP nominating contest will be decided by an intricate, state-by-state slog for the 2,472 delegates at stake between February and June. And thanks to the Republican National Committee’s allocation rules, the votes of “Blue Zone” Republicans — the more moderate GOP primary voters who live in Democratic-leaning states and congressional districts — could weigh more than those of more conservative voters who live in deeply red zones. Put another way: The Republican voters who will have little to no sway in the general election could have some of the most sway in the primary.

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The average blue district awards one convention delegate per 28,912 Romney voters, while the average red district awards one delegate per every 56,714 Romney voters. Thanks to this disparity, if a hard-right candidate like Cruz dominates deeply red Southern districts in the SEC primary, a more electable candidate like Rubio could quickly erase that deficit by quietly piling up smaller raw-vote wins in more liberal urban and coastal districts.

The RNC partially compensates for this imbalance in the way it awards delegates on a statewide basis. Republicans award “bonus” delegates to states with lots of GOP officeholders and states with the best GOP performance in the last election. For example, despite both states having nine congressional districts, Tennessee will send 58 delegates to the Cleveland convention while Massachusetts will send 42.

But the bigger boon to Rubio, Bush and other moderates is that the opinions of GOP voters in places like Massachusetts count at all in this process — in an era when the Bay State sends zero Republicans to Congress. It’s a huge factor that many pundits tend to overlook, and it’s why the temperament and qualities that the broader party looks for in a nominee differ so much from those of the loudest and most ideological Freedom Caucus types in Washington.

It’s not that national polls are skewed in favor of conservative, red-meat Republicans. It’s that the Republican Party’s delegate geography rewards their moderate rivals.

Originally posted by Adam_PoE
Is that supposed to somehow make it any less ridiculous? 😆

Carson seemed so down to earth at first.