2020 Presidential Election Discussion

DDM, did you read the recent LA Times article on Trump winning? It touches back on that and shows the current numbers and how Trump can win (he's currently ahead) in 2020, but also how it can potentially go South for him rather quickly in 2020. Link

"Trump’s apparent margin of victory can be strengthened by a few more really good quarters of economic growth. Specifically, for any calendar quarter in which economic growth exceeds the long-term average of 3.2%, the incumbent picks up an additional four-fifths of a point in the popular vote. So far, Trump has enjoyed three such “good news” quarters. They have added almost 2.4 points to his predicted vote share. Fair predicts those good quarters all but assure a Trump victory in 2020.

But Trump does have something to worry about. Economic forecasters are nearly unanimous in predicting an economic slowdown as the effects of the Trump tax cuts and Fed interest rate cuts dissipate. Many economists are predicting a recession in 2020. The trade wars that Trump has initiated may also spark unwelcome price hikes. If economic growth turns negative and inflation rises, Trump’s predicted margin of victory shrinks quickly. -snip

He also has the home court advantage so-to-speak in that more presidents have done two terms than been the 'one term losers'. So if he somehow manages to still lose even if the economy is solid in 2020, that'll be something telling.

Originally posted by Robtard
DDM, did you read the recent LA Times article on Trump winning? It touches back on that and shows the current numbers and how Trump can win (he's currently ahead) in 2020, but also how it can potentially go South for him rather quickly in 2020. Link

"Trump’s apparent margin of victory can be strengthened by a few more really good quarters of economic growth. Specifically, for any calendar quarter in which economic growth exceeds the long-term average of 3.2%, the incumbent picks up an additional four-fifths of a point in the popular vote. So far, Trump has enjoyed three such “good news” quarters. They have added almost 2.4 points to his predicted vote share. Fair predicts those good quarters all but assure a Trump victory in 2020.

But Trump does have something to worry about. Economic forecasters are nearly unanimous in predicting an economic slowdown as the effects of the Trump tax cuts and Fed interest rate cuts dissipate. Many economists are predicting a recession in 2020. The trade wars that Trump has initiated may also spark unwelcome price hikes. If economic growth turns negative and inflation rises, Trump’s predicted margin of victory shrinks quickly. -snip

He also has the home court advantage so-to-speak in that more presidents have done two terms than been the 'one term losers'. So if he somehow manages to still lose even if the economy is solid in 2020, that'll be something telling.

This is probably the best contribution, so far, to this specific topic. 👆

Seems legit and on point.

I feel like polls can be intriguing but eh. I've seen stories that say models show Trump wins, I've seen stories saying the guy who predicted the last 9-10 elections correctly say Trump will win, I've seen stories saying Biden would beat him.

What exactly am I supposed to do with this information? Choose the polls that fit into my narrative and ignore the others?

Confirmation bias is the only way to live if you hate Trump

Speaking of Biden, also wondering if him not running in 2016 was a very calculated 'what if Trump wins' tactic, knowing that in the pre-Trump political climate, all the questionable shit he has said/done would have ended his presidential run rather quickly, but in the post-Trump climate that Trumper's created and made okay, that questionable behavior doesn't really matter anymore.

I just love that a straight white old guy apparently seems to be what progressives want.

Giggle.

People accuse Trump of “metal aging” have these retards not listened to Biden😂

What I love is the crying over Bidens health being highlighted.

But it's okay to do it for Trump, it's okay to speculate about his mental health...cuz reasons.

Originally posted by Surtur
I just love that a straight white old guy apparently seems to be what progressives want.

Giggle.

Originally posted by Surtur
What I love is the crying over Bidens health being highlighted.

But it's okay to do it for Trump, it's okay to speculate about his mental health...cuz reasons.

Originally posted by Surtur
What I love is the crying over Bidens health being highlighted.

But it's okay to do it for Trump, it's okay to speculate about his mental health...cuz reasons.

Rob you dont love it cuz there was no freak out. I legit pointed out conflicting polls.

Haters, they gonna hate. Ballers, they gonna ball.

What you just said had nothing to do with polls...

Do better.

Anybody who still takes so-called "polls" serioously after what happened in 2016 is a moron. 👆

Originally posted by eThneoLgrRnae
Anybody who still takes so-called "polls" serioously after what happened in 2016 is a moron. 👆

I take some of the polls seriously and if I'm a moron, you're protozoa.

Originally posted by Robtard
Speaking of Biden, also wondering if him not running in 2016 was a very calculated 'what if Trump wins' tactic, knowing that in the pre-Trump political climate, all the questionable shit he has said/done would have ended his presidential run rather quickly, but in the post-Trump climate that Trumper's created and made okay, that questionable behavior doesn't really matter anymore.

It certainly makes debate with my Trumpublican friends much simpler. "No comment" is my typical response when they start telling me how bad [insert Democratic candidate here] is.

Originally posted by Surtur

Haters, they gonna hate. Ballers, they gonna ball.

Originally posted by eThneoLgrRnae
Anybody who still takes so-called "polls" serioously after what happened in 2016 is a moron. 👆

Originally posted by eThneoLgrRnae
Anybody who still takes so-called "polls" serioously after what happened in 2016 is a moron. 👆

case in point:

Originally posted by Putinbot1
Oh Fly... ❌

Oh bashy.. yes. ✅ 👆

Originally posted by dadudemon
I take some of the polls seriously and if I'm a moron, you're protozoa.

More emphasis needs to be put on state polling and much less on national polling. State polling was fairly accurate, with some exceptions, in 2016. Honestly, the national polling wasn't wrong either, it predicted Clinton would get more votes and she did, it just played out in a way that the popular vote didn't really matter.

Originally posted by Mindship
I suspect it involved not wanting to take any spotlight from Hillary. But yeah: IMO not calling-out Trump has seriously undermined the criticism credibility of most of the Republican party.

It certainly makes debate with my Trumpublican friends much simpler. "No comment" is my typical response when they start telling me how bad [insert Democratic candidate here] is.

For sure, the "it's her time; she earned it" was a factor and it was morinically stupid for Dems to do.

But I also can't shake the feeling that Biden was playing a 'what if' long game. Republicans attack him for being a creepy old guy who's said and says a lot of questionable comments that are not the stuff a president should be made of, while backing Trump of all people, they'll have egg on their face.