Originally posted by dadudemon
Because Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 elections when she was projected to easily win.Peopel simply responded incorrectly to polls because people were in the room with them or they didn't want to bla bla bla bla
No need to get into it. You understand.
VP pick should have little to do with it. Unless people are just plain racist. Wait, Democrats largely are racist and sexist. Maybe they will vote against Biden if he picks a black female VP.
Oh right, you mean a sort of extended Bradley effect where for some other reason (perhaps stigma surrounding Trump, or in Hillary’s case perhaps that she was a woman] made it so that more people said they would vote for Clinton (or not vote for Trump) than did in the end. And this is likely to repeat with a Biden?
Originally posted by Surtur
Biden will end up announcing Margaret Thatcher as his running mate.
I can imagine a yelling match on stage between Biden and Trump who is going to get a Thatcher as running mate. With Trump announcing that he thought of it months ago and sent a beautiful perfect letter to her which she accepted, and Biden retorting, now listen here, buster, Melanie Thatcher has been one of my closest friends for years, last year she even came to my birthday party where all my black friends were as well.
It’ll be epic, the world will be doomed either way, but we’ll get to remember this spectacle while the ship goes down.
Originally posted by Artol
Oh right, you mean a sort of extended Bradley effect where for some other reason (perhaps stigma surrounding Trump, or in Hillary’s case perhaps that she was a woman] made it so that more people said they would vote for Clinton (or not vote for Trump) than did in the end. And this is likely to repeat with a Biden?
That is exactly what happened and is an amazing example of the Bradley Effect that I think will be studied in poli-sci degrees for decades.
In some instances, the results were off double the margin of error in their polls. They didn't just all of a sudden become shitty pollsters - it was just a lot of people responding incorrectly because they didn't want to say they supported Trump.
Originally posted by Surtur
National Association of Police Organizations endorses Trump after endorsing Obama and Biden in 2008 and 2012
Wait till someone posts how it’s different, blah blah blah
Yeah, certainly. a factor, also I think there was a bit of liberal arrogance there. The NYTs claiming it was 99% likely that Clinton would win just wasn’t supported by the polls. I think they might also have become somewhat more sophisticated to the particular nature of the US electoral system now, and to the interdependent nature of some voter bases.
Originally posted by Artol
Yeah, certainly. a factor, also I think there was a bit of liberal arrogance there. The NYTs claiming it was 99% likely that Clinton would win just wasn’t supported by the polls. I think they might also have become somewhat more sophisticated to the particular nature of the US electoral system now, and to the interdependent nature of some voter bases.
LA Times got it right even when others were angry at them and accused them of being pro-Trump.
Guess what they did?
They went ape-shit with science on it. It was so complicated even I got confused (doing stats, polling, etc. is part of my job).
Originally posted by Artol
Yeah, even FiveThirtyEight, didn’t do too bad. They gave Clinton about a 60% chance of winning, that’s certainly not close to the embarrassment the NYT and other establishment organizations perpetrated.
At first I thought they were fails. Robtard and I talked about it.
They weren't that bad. They were just aggregating data. The data itself was bad.
HOWEVER!
I found something absolutely appalling with their data.
I have a test call coming up. Gotta go. I will come back and post it - I found evidence of sneakiness and dishonesty.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/16/politics/donald-trump-coronavirus-leadership/index.html
This is the stuff America should judge Trump on. His terrible leadership in a crisis.
Originally posted by Surtur
Indeed I too would love to see anyone referring to the black race as animals.And I know nobody is going to be racist and suggest that some members of a minority group that loot and burn being called out is akin to calling out every single member of the race.
That would be racist as hell.
Star428 (currently the TheLoneRanger scrambled) and LongPig have, or posted similar.
Ask Blaxican (Tzeentch now) about it.