Originally posted by Patient_Leech
Ah, the spite vote. 😂Thanks fer givin' me even LESS faith in humanity. 🙁
I broke down the numbers in another post.
Lots of Pro-Bernie spit voters in 2016. Millions.
Tons of Dems voted for Trump that had voted for Dems and Bernie prior to the general election.
I believe this was called the "Bernie Effect" or maybe I'm confusing terms. Something like that.
Maybe up to 13% of previous Obama voters voted for Trump in 2016...
Originally posted by Robtard
Maybe up to 13% of previous Obama voters voted for Trump in 2016...
Damn.
That's more than I thought. I thought it was 7% but didn't want to throw numbers out there and be wrong.
Biden's still likely going to get it and he has a good chance of beating Trump, despite Trump having the advantage of being the incumbent and a yet to crash economy. Can't recall the last time I saw an incumbent President this vulnerable. Really depends where the economy is and how people feel about their personal win/loss in life come Nov 2020.
The 2016 Obama-Trump supporters are largely not happy with Trump according to other studies. They thought his 2016 self was just an "act", but that was all him as we've seen. They're also not happy with many of his feed-the-rich policies, the nigh constant lying about everything big and small.
Originally posted by Robtard
Biden's still likely going to get it and he has a good chance of beating Trump, despite Trump having the advantage of being the incumbent and a yet to crash economy. Can't recall the last time I saw an incumbent President this vulnerable. Really depends where the economy is and how people feel about their personal win/loss in life come Nov 2020.The 2016 Obama-Trump supporters are largely not happy with Trump according to other studies. They thought his 2016 self was just an "act", but that was all him as we've seen. They're also not happy with many of his feed-the-rich policies, the nigh constant lying about everything big and small.
I do not see the pundits supporting the notion that Biden will beat Trump or that Biden will get the nomination.
The pundits are stating that Trump's base are stronger and more motivated than ever, however. And the Dems are scrambling, quite worried that Trump will win. I break down my perspective into 6 points, below, with every point being backed up by a politician, reputable pollster, or political pundit:
1. Al Greene said that if they do not successfully remove Trump from office, he will likely win in 2020. Link.
2. Michael Moore (a person who I think is a leftist, partisan, hack...but I still like and enjoy his opinions because I'm a dumbass) talks more about the rabidness of Trump's base.I should note that Moore predicted a Trump 2016 and he warned people, multiple times, to stop underestimating the support for Trump. Link.
3. Politco, a very anti-Trump outlet, things the path to his 2020 presidency is quite plausible. Link.
4. And the fact that his approval ratings have gone up and stayed steady "up" since the impeachment stuff started is another sign that this is bad news for Dems. In fact, leftist site, blackenteprise, breaks down why the impeachment stuff is getting Trump re-elected. According to that same pollster, he is making grounds with Hispanic and female voters, too. That's making grounds where he didn't as well with voters in 2016. That's absolute terrible news for people like me who NEED a liberal to get elected to fix tax policy, healthcare, and budget stuff.Link.
5. Washington Examiner shows that Trump's approval has now jumped to 50%, well beyond the needed approval to get re-elected. Link.
6. Also, to support my position, Michael Moore says that Sanders can beat Trump and breaks it down, here.
Biden is still leading in the polls for the nom, far and wide. Even Rasmussen, the one you trust most shows it (or showed not long ago). Why I think (at this point) Biden's still going to get it. If things change to show me differently in 2020, so be it.
Popularity can surely change. In 2007-2008 Clinton was up and then Obama came from the sidelines to take it.
As far as Sanders, he's my first pick I want to win the nom. I just don't see it happening and also think he has a less chance of beating Trump than Biden.
I also find it odd that one the the loudest pro-Trump arguments is "the Left is getting too far to the Left!", yet Sanders who is the closets thing to a Socialist up there is also seen as someone who can beat Trump.
As far as the Washington Examiner, that's a very far Right news outlet, I'm not surprised they're showing Trump's approval as being higher than they do.
Originally posted by Robtard
Biden is still leading in the polls for the nom, far and wide. Even Rasmussen, the one you trust most shows it (or showed not long ago). Why I think (at this point) Biden's still going to get it. If things change to show me differently in 2020, so be it.
Depends on which poll and which state you're talking about.
Bernie leads in multiple states:
https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Bernie-Sanders-Elizabeth-Warren-poll-California-14884628.php
Honestly, CA Dems just don't matter in these elections
And this guy breaks down why Bernie is leading:
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/12/26/people-should-take-him-very-seriously-sanders-polling-surge-reportedly-forcing
According to Real Clear Politics polling averages, Sanders is in a close second place in Iowa, first place in New Hampshire, and virtually tied with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) for second in Nevada. A poll last week from the UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies showed Sanders leading the Democratic field in California, a crucial Super Tuesday state.
When it becomes open season, Biden will be forced to withdraw due to his hands being all over kids, statements he's made, the corruption from Ukraine, etc. He has no chance because of all these bad things. He's not a viable candidate and the Dems will tank their party if they try to force Biden on us.
Originally posted by Robtard
As far as Sanders, he's my first pick I want to win the nom. I just don't see it happening and also think he has a less chance of beating Trump than Biden.
Polls in 2016 and in this go around show Sanders beating Trump but Hillary/Biden losing. If we don't pay attention to these polls, we will repeat 2016 and Trump will waste another 4 years.
Originally posted by Robtard
I also find it odd that one the the loudest pro-Trump arguments is "the Left is getting too far to the Left!", yet Sanders who is the closets thing to a Socialist up there is also seen as someone who can beat Trump.
That shouldn't be odd since those come from two different sets of people.
Originally posted by Robtard
As far as the Washington Examiner, that's a very far Right news outlet, I'm not surprised they're showing Trump's approval as being higher than they do.
I'm beginning to like them. Much better than Brietfart. Also, WE is just right, not very far right.
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/washington-examiner/
Regardless, your issue should be with Zogby Analytics, not the WE reporting on the poll. The founder, Zogby, is a registered Democrat. Zogby Analytics has a C+ accuracy (78%) and is the 3rd largest pollster.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
I'm trying to dig through SurveyUSA's stuff. They are super accurate and the largest pollster (they...have too many polls).
Originally posted by Patient_Leech
Newsweek - TRUMP WILL START THE END OF THE WORLD, CLAIM EVANGELICALS WHO SUPPORT HIMcrazy
doh
We are now full circle. These same churches said the same of Obama.
Originally posted by dadudemon
Depends on which poll and which state you're talking about.Bernie leads in multiple states:
https://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Bernie-Sanders-Elizabeth-Warren-poll-California-14884628.php
Honestly, CA Dems just don't matter in these elections
And this guy breaks down why Bernie is leading:
https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/12/26/people-should-take-him-very-seriously-sanders-polling-surge-reportedly-forcingWhen it becomes open season, Biden will be forced to withdraw due to his hands being all over kids, statements he's made, the corruption from Ukraine, etc. He has no chance because of all these bad things. He's not a viable candidate and the Dems will tank their party if they try to force Biden on us.
Polls in 2016 and in this go around show Sanders beating Trump but Hillary/Biden losing. If we don't pay attention to these polls, we will repeat 2016 and Trump will waste another 4 years.
That shouldn't be odd since those come from two different sets of people.
I'm beginning to like them. Much better than Brietfart. Also, WE is just right, not very far right.
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/washington-examiner/
Regardless, your issue should be with Zogby Analytics, not the WE reporting on the poll. The founder, Zogby, is a registered Democrat. Zogby Analytics has a C+ accuracy (78%) and is the 3rd largest pollster.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
I'm trying to dig through SurveyUSA's stuff. They are super accurate and the largest pollster (they...have too many polls).
Still don't see it happening as of right now, will adjust my views accordingly when/if something changes. Hopefully that guy is right and Sanders surges to the lead and the nom.
I've talked about that in early-mid 2019 or so, but noted that we're in post-Trump politics, where scandals that would normally sink a candidate (like Biden) don't matter anymore, people are jaded to it. In fact, running against someone like Trump is the ONLY way someone like Biden could win, as the bar's been lowered to beneath the floor.
I still find it odd as the argument of "The Left is going too far to the Left!" as you often here and as a reason to argue why Trump will win again, when Sanders is the Lefty-Left kinda socialist candidate.
Fair enough on the two different sets of people.
Breitbart is garbage, so that's not saying much. But read/watch what you like, no worries here.