Originally posted by Blakemore
idk wtf youre talking about...
Sorry brah, wasn’t really talking to you directly per se (altho I do not blame you for mistaking it, my placement and wording was misleading, and it WAS half-meant to reply to your comment in case you addressed it to me, so I apologize). I meant my longer post prior to the last one was to Stealth Moose’s response to me.
Had to cut out the /quote to his reply because I ran out of space. I posted that as a general clarification addressed to all that so ppl won’t be confused about who I am replying to.
Again, sorry for the confusion.
I agree that China isn't blameless, and I also agree that the WHO isn't blameless. I wouldn't group them as if they were one entity as some people do. There are bad and incompetent things that they have done and there are good and competent things they have done. One thing I think was good, quite fast, and has likely saved many lives is their sharing of the genetic code of the virus internationally.
At any rate, while I think Trump's response was bad in international comparison, it also wasn't as bad as Democrats make it out to be.
It's also just really difficult to clearly assign blame at the moment, or know what worked and what didn't work.
One personal gripe with the WHO I have is that they (still) do not recommend the use of masks for the general population, even though there is overwhelming evidence it is a good move, and has secondary benefits that aren't even factored in.
Correction on my previous post, I meant to say:
Simply putting Trump’s dumb words in a timeline DOES give you some fun “gotchas” for Trump being dumb and saying dumb things (while some would say his words were just simply naive/foolish hopeful optimism or words to calm a scared population, depending on how you see it) but it does NOT establish any kind of fault here if you’re going for the coronavirus response.
Sorry about that.
Yesterday, record deaths. Massive spike.
But why? I cannot explain this data. Social distancing, lockdowns, and shelter in place policies. So why the spike?
Here are my original predictions and IHME's:
Originally posted by dadudemon
Here is a great site about projections:https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Running my numbers against theirs will be great.
They are projecting 2600+ deaths on April 16th and April 16th is supposed to be the apex.
They also predict that by May 1st, we will have 68,000 total deaths.
My predictions are:
1. We will hover are around 1,100 daily deaths for several days and slowly drop with an average margin of +-300.
2. By May 1st, we will have 20,000 to 25,000 deaths. That's because my model predicts daily death rates from .85 to 1.1 and theirs is much more aggressive. I also suggested we hit near population saturation before the lockdowns got crazy 2-3 weeks ago. If the lockdowns were effective, we would have seen significant drops in the last 6 days, now, but we haven't.
Let's see who's right. Obviously, all of us would hope in me being correct because that means we hit way more less dead. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, however.
Feel free to mess around with a free online tool (but mine is my own in Excel):
IHME was still way way off at the time and my predictions were still closer to accurate than theirs. Readjusting my model may have been a bad idea because it turned out to be "accurate" again but the spikes are just hard to explain and represent.
This might be why the deaths soared:
NYC mayor added 3700 deaths that were previously not counted. They didn't test positive for COVID-19 (they weren't tested).
Perhaps how they are doing the counts only reflected against yesterday for those that died in that 3700, yesterday. But none of the other prior days were adjusted.
If this explains the spike, then we should see 1300-1500 deaths, today. I sure hope this is the reason because I'd like to see this go away.
Originally posted by dadudemon
This might be why the deaths soared:NYC mayor added 3700 deaths that were previously not counted. They didn't test positive for COVID-19 (they weren't tested).
Perhaps how they are doing the counts only reflected against yesterday for those that died in that 3700, yesterday. But none of the other prior days were adjusted.
If this explains the spike, then we should see 1300-1500 deaths, today. I sure hope this is the reason because I'd like to see this go away.
Have u seen what is going on in South Dakota? Didn't enforce any lock down. Number of deaths so far: 6
fromb the wall street journal. (aka "FAKE NEWS"😉
New York City raised its likely death toll from coronavirus by 3,778 people on Tuesday afternoon, after city officials released new numbers counting people who were presumed to have died of the disease but who hadn’t tested positive for the virus.Until now, only people who died after testing positive for the virus were counted among its victims in New York in publicly released data. A limited number of tests made it hard for many patients to have their illness confirmed.
sorry your celebration was ruined
Originally posted by Nibedicus😂
Wow. That’s almost half their population.😮
Originally posted by Bashar Teg👆 Which is not rocket Science tbh. And by that I mean the implication of your well warranted sarcasm
it's almost as if closeer proximity of people in a densly population area has something to do with infection rates of an airborne virus. nahh it must mean that south dakota is smarter and social distancing doesn't work. there's no difference between nyc and east bumblef*ck kansas, population: 4
Surt... Do better on your hill, don't let people die, socially distance.