Originally posted by Nibedicus
Problem IMO with establishing herd immunity is due to the fact that we know so little about the virus.How fast does it mutate? Does it recur? Does it do permanent damage to our bodies (to a significant enough portion of the ones considered “not at risk”)? How long does the immunity last? Is there a chance we can get reinfected again? Is there a chance for the immune and asymptomatic to transmit the virus to their loved ones who are then vulnerable.
I’m sure there could studies/articles that prove/disprove some of the above but I haven’t bothered to do a more in-depth research at the moment, these are just concerns that have popped up in recent articles I’ve come across.
Not to mention cordoning off the vulnerable might not even be possible for some families (elderly parents living with their kids for support/care).
But worst thing, of course, would be the impact to our healthcare services.
Worst case (IF the virus turns out to be worse than our stats are saying), one possible solution I can think of would be to go the opposite way. Bubble boy every single person outside their home. Decon showers in every home/building/doorway. Until an actual safe vaccine is made and tested, this may be the safest option IMO.
It won’t look exactly like the above tho, but it has the same concept.
It’s not pleasant and ppl would look damned funny but I feel this would only require the fashion/clothing industry to start selling these clothes and DIY home improvement stores to sell the parts to small doorway-sized decon showers. Medical insurance would cover it so ppl can afford it. IF you can’t make your body immune to the disease coming from the environment, make your body immune to the environment. XD
Condos/apartments (especially tiny ones) might be tricky tho. But might need to require every person to have one on.
It’s a POSSIBLE solution to the problem. We don’t need to put anything into our bodies that is yet untested, the technology already exists and it can be safely rolled out in a matter of months instead of a year or even years. Not only that, these kinds of PPE’s are ALREADY needed anyway for out healthcare frontliners so ramping up production and technology is actually a priority atm.
How fast does it mutate?
Much slower than the seasonal flu.
Does it recur?
Yes, which is why people find it absurd to keep locked down until 2022. With a viable vaccine, in large quantities, not being available until Q3-ish 2021, this has people worried. The virus is not "biphasic" if that's what you meant. But like all of the seasonal flu issues, you'll have mutations that may vary enough that you won't have immunity from it and you'll get sick all over again. Just like Rhinovirus. Just like the various strains of H1N1, H3N2, etc.
Does it do permanent damage to our bodies (to a significant enough portion of the ones considered “not at risk”)?
No. And healthy individuals extremely rarely die from it. Estimates range from a large minority to a significant majority being asymptomatic. Of the ones who do get ill, half to a majority only experience mild symptoms. Of the ones who get severely ill, only 4% require hospitalization. Of the ones that require hospitalization, at the highest level of risk (age 85+), case fatality rate ranged from 10%-27%.
With a mortality rate at about the same as the seasonal flu but a higher R0, it's still not on track to kill as many people as the rhinovirus (common cold) kills in children, alone, each year. For context, about 2 million children die each year from the complications related to rhinovirus. The rhinovirus was discovered to have a higher mortality rate than even the flu. We do not have a vaccine for the rhinovirus. We do not shut the world down for the flu and cold season.
How long does the immunity last?
Any numbers would be an educated guess but since coronavirus mutates more slowly than the flu, the answer is "longer than the flu."
Is there a chance we can get reinfected again?
Answered previously with the biphasic point.
Is there a chance for the immune and asymptomatic to transmit the virus to their loved ones who are then vulnerable.
Yes, but only in a small window where an asymptomatic carrier "sheds" the virus. This window is about 14 days. If you were ill, about 3 days after you are symptom free.
To the rest of your point, the most effective and least "life-cost" method is to protect the elderly and vulnerable for 4-6 weeks but get everyone else to stay out and about as much as possible to reach heard immunity as quickly as possible. That's the suggestion of leading epidemiologists from Stanford.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.28.20036715v3