As the research starts to pour in, even the press is understanding that the mortality rate was grossly overblown.
Hot mic in the daily PotUS press briefing room and the member of the press calls this whole situation a "hoax" after hearing the actual mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 (he probably didn't know he was mic'd as this comment my cost him his job):
https://twitter.com/KarluskaP/status/1252353692860248071
Edit - To be fair, the true mortality rate is turning out to be even less than my own original model. Even I got it wrong.
For those interested, here is the article discussing the serological tests from LA County. Note that the samples were taken in very early April and would have greatly expanded based on the "cases" and "fatalities" we saw in the following weeks. It also means that we were at 4.1% of adults having been infected, likely, 14 days or more before the antibody tests were done. Meaning, far more people than the test found could have been infected and had active cases than was found in their study. Add in that it has been 2-3 weeks since then, and you're looking at millions of people likely exposed and infected in the LA Greater area.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/coronavirus-serology-testing-la-county
Originally posted by dadudemon
For those interested, here is the article discussing the serological tests from LA County. Note that the samples were taken in very early April and would have greatly expanded based on the "cases" and "fatalities" we saw in the following weeks. It also means that we were at 4.1% of adults having been infected, likely, 14 days or more before the antibody tests were done. Meaning, far more people than the test found could have been infected and had active cases than was found in their study. Add in that it has been 2-3 weeks since then, and you're looking at millions of people likely exposed and infected in the LA Greater area.https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/coronavirus-serology-testing-la-county
I was just going to post this.
Seems a lot of studies are coming to similar conclusions - the virus is much more widespread than many thought, and also far less deadly to the average person. Good news for those who aren't in high risk groups, bad news for those who are.
Originally posted by BackFire
I was just going to post this.Seems a lot of studies are coming to similar conclusions - the virus is much more widespread than many thought, and also far less deadly to the average person. Good news for those who aren't in high risk groups, bad news for those who are.
Right. At this point, I don't even know how to model the virus. The R0 is higher and the mortality rate is lower.
I cannot wrap my mind around the formulas needed to model how it spread. There are other factors I just cannot capture. And yet, my model was still more accurate than IHME's.
Part of the problem is the overcounts. I think that is part of why it seems so hard to model this virus. They are clearly counting people who died from COVID-19 that clearly did not (and another study shows it could be as much as 57% of the dead are being wrongfully attributed to coronavirus).