Originally posted by GehennaJohns Hopkins is performing a seven day trailing average for positives per test. Reuters does not have this on tap. The Reuters data is not a good means of declaring that the peak surpassed. It would be like declaring July 4th as the second wave peak (https://i.imgur.com/Z17RJp0.png)
I'm not pushing back against this. My contention is that we can say rate of positivity has steadily held since the 28th and that the second wave positivity rate has peaked. This is based on the seven day trailing average given by Johns Hopkins.
I'm not sure what mainstream media representation appeared to be at large. I have not seen much that's overwhelmingly atrocious from the New York Times, as one example. I'm not sure what you're pointing to, honestly.
Yeah, it absolutely can be it.
Premature opening in specific states are massive contributors in states such as Florida. I tracked this by observing reopening schedules on Propublica (https://projects.propublica.org/reopening-america/) and taking queues for probable consequences from the RAND model (https://www.rand.org/pubs/tools/TLA173-1/tool.html).
The death spikes were fairly localized but I'm not sure the second wave can be said to be over.
Spiking in positive test results trail early reopening. However, spikes in positive test rate and new deaths do not, as far as I recall.
The dispute concerns whether or not we should use a seven day trailing average.
I have no clue. As I alluded to before, I don't consistently follow much that could constitute as MSM. The one thing I do, however, is the New York Times and they're okay.
This is not my prescription. I think everyone should be wearing masks. However, I do not believe it should be mandatory. A flawless RCT demonstrating the efficacy of mask-wearing would likewise not be satisfactory for me to prescribe this. I think it is solidly justified to castigate individuals for not wearing masks. The moral thing to do is to wear one.
I had not considered that they recommended this, if asymptomatic. There's really not point to wearing a mask if you're asymptomatic and not inside of a hospital and just at home. Everyone is almost definitely infected.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover-guidance.html
^ That does not say to wear it in your household, however. I'm unsure who is advising that.
I'm going to push back against this because I disagree. The evidence in the SSC article implies there is solid reasoning to believe cloth masks are effective within the settings described. A hospital is an astronomically higher risk area than even public transit. I don't think those meta-analyses can be generalized to public conduct to claim that only this level of attentiveness will have a mitigating effect.
What?
We don't know this yet, despite the fact that they're using them.
I'm fairly certain the Imperial College model claimed the upper end was millions if, quite literally, no measure and/or no action was taken. Neil Ferguson gets unreasonably shit on, including accounting for predictions in the past: https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/05/08/so-the-real-scandal-is-why-did-anyone-ever-listen-to-this-guy/#comment-1331901
I attribute this to people intentionally misrepresenting the research.
Not if it causes genuine harm to people, which is why I would recommend waiting for the actual quality RCT instead of retrospective studies or flawed RCTs. [/B]
I really enjoy this conversation. Very few of the regulars want to talk about details - just one-off zingers and trolling.
I'll start responding in audio or AV format as that is much faster.
Got lots of work to do today so it will take me a while.
Please stick around on KMC off and on, going forward.
FYI, great new additions to the GDF are:
Artol
Scribble
Quincy
InsaneTitan
Just off the top of my head. They choose to engage the topics in depth, usually. InsaneTitan gets insulting, though - wish he didn't and just stuck to the subjects.
Later, I'll respond when my work day slows down. I also have to workout so I may not respond until this evening.
Man, I ain't listening to a ****ing audio response lmao. If you want to continue, just let me know when you have time and we can pick it back up via text. If you do audio, I gotta listen and then write your shit down, which sounds a lot like work.
Unfortunately, this will probably be my last foray here. There are other spaces online I feel have more valuable discussion and meaningful challenges to contribute my time to.
Whenever you wish to pick this back up, just respond to my last post (unless it's going to take some time, in which case you can PM me to let me know).
Originally posted by Gehenna
Man, I ain't listening to a ****ing audio response lmao. If you want to continue, just let me know when you have time and we can pick it back up via text. If you do audio, I gotta listen and then write your shit down, which sounds a lot like work.Unfortunately, this will probably be my last foray here. There are other spaces online I feel have more valuable discussion and meaningful challenges to contribute my time to.
I'm moving away from forum based responses, slowly. It's too time consuming.
To be honest? I typically find it quicker. I've done lots of voiced discussions across different communities in the past few years and there is an upside of watching someone squirm live who cannot run to a search engine or has to think on the spot. However, too often I've noticed people attempt to gishgallop or just non-stop interrupt and, specifically concerning gishgalloping, you can cut right past this in written format (and interruptions aren't a relevant factor in written format either).
Both have their pros and cons but, as for bad faith actors, they're much easier to deal with in any given written format. Trying to have any discussion with individuals like this is next to impossible anyway but I find text is a good way to ameliorate a lot of the consistent issues you'd get talking to someone like this in a live voice format.
Plus, you often have to put extra work into recording people because I find they will just straight up fabricate or lie about what they previously said, as nothing is written down and they can just gaslight you and deny statements they have previously made.
Trump's approval rating drops as US breaks daily Covid-19 case record – live
Originally posted by Badabingim lucky my wife actually has her own bathroom in our apartment off our daughters room which she uses as her office, so I actually can pretend unless one slips put or she needs to go in the night she doesn't. Same with her about me. 😂
I actually have to pretend women don't fart or crap. lol
Originally posted by Old Man Whirly!
Trump's approval rating drops as US breaks daily Covid-19 case record – live
"You have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero." -Trump Feb 2020
'Work from home': UK chief scientific adviser warns of coronavirus risks – video
Tired of being Boris Johnson's patsy, Patrick Vallance fights back
As I was putting together content for a video on the research related to COVID-19, I ran into this really cool chart of mask wearing:
The Philippines has the best mask obedience of any nation, by far. That's because they implemented a mandatory public mask policy a long ass time ago near the beginning of this whole mess.
Here's what The Philippines mask policy did for them:
They are now in the top 10 countries for daily deaths and their numbers keep growing. Things are getting out of control in the Philippines.
But why? Everyone keeps saying masks will save you and is the silver bullet for this whole mess. The Philippines is the best at wearing masks, right? Formal policies with strict enforcement and fines just like India. So what's going on?
Wait a minute, India is #2 on the list? And their daily deaths are skyrocketing? But India had such strict shelter in place rules! Extremely strict. They literally beat people in the streets if they were in public.
Mexico is #2 in the world for mask wearing adherence. But...they are #1 in the world for daily deaths.
What's going on?!?!? Why are so many people dying in these countries with super strict rules and mask adherence policies?
Masks work, right? How could this BE?
Originally posted by dadudemon
As I was putting together content for a video on the research related to COVID-19, I ran into this really cool chart of mask wearing:The Philippines has the best mask obedience of any nation, by far. That's because they implemented a mandatory public mask policy a long ass time ago near the beginning of this whole mess.
Here's what The Philippines mask policy did for them:
They are now in the top 10 countries for daily deaths and their numbers keep growing. Things are getting out of control in the Philippines.
But why? Everyone keeps saying masks will save you and is the silver bullet for this whole mess. The Philippines is the best at wearing masks, right? Formal policies with strict enforcement and fines just like India. So what's going on?
Wait a minute, India is #2 on the list? And their daily deaths are skyrocketing? But India had such strict shelter in place rules! Extremely strict. They literally beat people in the streets if they were in public.
Mexico is #2 in the world for mask wearing adherence. But...they are #1 in the world for daily deaths.
What's going on?!?!? Why are so many people dying in these countries with super strict rules and mask adherence policies?
Masks work, right? How could this BE?
This doesn't inform us of the counter-factual, which is what things would look like absent of masks. Also, having a mandate for mask-wearing doesn't tell us a thing about enforcement.
Both India and the Philippines have relatively low state capacity in comparison to a country in America or, say, Europe so it's not simple and/or easy to implement such a broad-stroke policy as a mask mandate.
Also, self-reporting (as talked about between us) has a slew of problems. It's arduous to be certain how misrepresented (or "fudged"😉 the numbers are in these particular cases.
Not to be forgotten about, there's a moral hazard involved with masks, insomuch as people might engage in activities they otherwise wouldn't, for fear of the virus, which even masks cannot provide protection from. Masks aren't a license to participate in risky behaviors, it's designed to mitigate risks in daily tasks that are a necessity.
Just wanna say that while the Philippines is strict about mark wearing in public spaces (altho I have to say there is still a huge problem about PROPER mask wearing with a lot of ppl), there is a huge problem in terms of lack of social distancing and extreme lack of living spaces between families (where families of 5 to 8+ ppl are crammed together in a home no bigger than a US bathroom and the space between them and their neighbor, who also has 5-8 family members is barely enough to squeeze thru).
Ppl also has a problem with discipline as many consider family gatherings, visiting, hanging out and drinking with friends, visiting the neighborhood sari-sari store (small home-based stores that sell day to day items) as not really “going out”, meaning that there is little to no social distancing and ppl aren’t really practicing proper mask wearing.
And this happens most commonly in the abovementioned shantytowns where ppl are living in very tight spaces close to each other.
I think it stresses the importance of following all the protocols. Skip one and you open yourself to possible infection.
Originally posted by dadudemon
But why? Everyone keeps saying masks will save you and is the silver bullet for this whole mess. The Philippines is the best at wearing masks, right? Formal policies with strict enforcement and fines just like India. So what's going on?Wait a minute, India is #2 on the list? And their daily deaths are skyrocketing? But India had such strict shelter in place rules! Extremely strict. They literally beat people in the streets if they were in public.
Mexico is #2 in the world for mask wearing adherence. But...they are #1 in the world for daily deaths.
What's going on?!?!? Why are so many people dying in these countries with super strict rules and mask adherence policies?
Masks work, right? How could this BE?
Nib has cleared this up. That People still need to social distance to stop the spread.
But Masks are just a really simple precaution to take. And it's just that, a precaution. Taking Precautions are all we can do until we have a cure or vaccine.
I don't get why people have an issue with them.
