Coronavirus

Originally posted by Artol
Ah, I see, you were referencing the daily deaths, not the absolute numbers. I think one reason for that discrepancy is that New York seems to be further along in the infection, it is possible that other places might have a similar development, although with relatively strict shutdown requirements in many places that might have been counteracted.

As for super spreaders, I'm not sure it is very clearly understood what makes someone a super spreader in this case. It may be in part different personal behavior, it may also be due to the way the virus interacts with the host though, in which case a specific subculture would be less relevant.

Sorry to hear that about your nephew. Was he a permanent resident or a tourist?

I haven't read anything about that otherwise, I know that the government was actually criticized for taking steps very slowly in regards to Chinese tourism. A large part of the Japanese GDP is based on tourism, and Chinese tourists make up the bulk of that. Additionally the desire to hold the Olympics this year might have had an influence as well.

Yup, he was a semi-permanent resident. He was approved to stay there 2-5 years (I will have to ask him about it, tomorrow).

And that's interesting to note about Japan. My nephew reported the lockdown stuff like we had in the US. They started earlier but, IIRC, their cases started earlier, too. We had our first case on Jan 20th. But they had their first death 2 full weeks before ours.

However, it spread far less slowly in Japan than in the US but now, all of a sudden, it is starting to grow exponentially. I'm probably going to be very wrong about Japan and I sure hope not. I thought they were doing well. That might be part of why they sent my nephew home: started growing quickly these last few days.

Anyway, let's see if my models are right or wrong. It's not like I have anywhere to go at the moment and modeling data outside of books, games, work, home workouts, and internet posting are the only things going on right now.

Originally posted by Artol
I presume their prediction, unlike yours, does not imply a return to "normal", since they don't believe there is herd immunity achieved, but rather that the methods deployed have kept infections low. Is that correct?

You are spot on. I am predicting a much larger "already exposed" factor. The "asymptomatics" play a much larger role than their model and their model is already incorrect for the last 3 days.

Also, my .3%-6% actual mortality rate appears to be wrong. That was my MR 2-3 weeks ago (I can't remember). So far, it's right with the US data but I'm predicting I'll be pretty damn wrong once massive amounts of antibody testing starts to come through. I'm okay with being wrong especially when it comes to that: means more people lived to the tune of tens of thousands.

As far as I know there isn't a lockdown in Japan. The government requested that people stay home, that the schools close, and that large but as of now they haven't declared a state of emergency so the government doesn't have the power to issue a lockdown anyways. Are you sure that your nephew was ejected, rather than elected to return to the United States?

I believe South Korea has had a very strong response, like you said.

Asian countries generally closed the schools and cancelled events much earlier than Europe and America. In Europe in particular a lot of infections are linked to these events. In Spain the Women's March on the 8th of March is mentioned, and in Germany the carnival season has been a culprit

Originally posted by dadudemon
You are spot on. I am predicting a much larger "already exposed" factor. The "asymptomatics" play a much larger role than their model and their model is already incorrect for the last 3 days.

Also, my .3%-6% actual mortality rate appears to be wrong. That was my MR 2-3 weeks ago (I can't remember). So far, it's right with the US data but I'm predicting I'll be pretty damn wrong once massive amounts of antibody testing starts to come through. I'm okay with being wrong especially when it comes to that: means more people lived to the tune of tens of thousands.

Yeah, I think everyone would hope that what you say is accurate, I must say that I doubt you are correct though, and it seems like most countries also do not believe that, but they may be wrong. My personal opinion is that we will be in this state of oscillating between lockdown and suppression techniques at the very least until an effective treatment or vaccine is found. I assume what we have now will be the new normal for the next year or so.

YouTube video

LOL@ how Tomi Lahren still so easily triggers the f*** out of fragile leftists such as yourself.

Originally posted by Artol
As far as I know there isn't a lockdown in Japan. The government requested that people stay home, that the schools close, and that large but as of now they haven't declared a state of emergency so the government doesn't have the power to issue a lockdown anyways. Are you sure that your nephew was ejected, rather than elected to return to the United States?

He was ejected. And they had the same guidelines as we did because he reports he was stopped on two different occasions by the police when he went "grocery" shopping with his roommate. None of his neighbors are leaving their homes unless it is for pharamceuticals and food. All voluntary lockdown, similar to the US.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-how-japan-keeps-covid-19-under-control/a-52907069

That article (from the 25th) seems to back up what you're saying: schools closed early and all public events cancelled. But it makes no mention of people locking down to their homes and only doing essential purchases like we have in the US. That does not explain why the police are checking with people not inside their homes.

They closed down many non-essential businesses, according to that article. All amusement parks were closed.

Found something more recent which appears to coincide with the voluntary lockdown he talked about:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-japan/u-s-sounds-alarm-on-coronavirus-in-japan-tokyo-pushes-for-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN21L0D0

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has urged school closures and called on citizens to avoid unnecessary and non-urgent gatherings and outings...

But, he reported the "lockdown measures" in Tokyo two weeks ago.

Originally posted by Artol
I believe South Korea has had a very strong response, like you said.

Asian countries generally closed the schools and cancelled events much earlier than Europe and America. In Europe in particular a lot of infections are linked to these events. In Spain the Women's March on the 8th of March is mentioned, and in Germany the carnival season has been a culprit

In that case, with incubation periods, time to symptoms, critical care time, and then death, we should have seen massive spikes associate with those events and due to R0, you'd see the butterfly/ripple effect for multiple days after. Did we see that in Germany? Did we see a massive spike pop up?

Based on the numbers I'm familiar with, you'd see a spike 4-7 days after.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

Yup. You see it. Look at the 12th. There is a spike of new cases on the 12th and it settles into a new "daily increase" trend. However, you don't see a similar trend in deaths 14-21 days later as it's fairly consistent. That is likely due to the women's march being more representative of the less-vulnerable than the people who would more likely die form it.

To me, this type of data is super interesting. We see an obvious case spike but not an obvious death spike related to their women's march. And we can explain both reasons for that data fairly easily.

I used to do this type of work ("big data analytics) for the hospitality industry and it was very fun. Much more fun that predicting deaths. I could show hotels gray dot heat maps (meaning it just took a snap shot of their location using beacons all over the building if the guest had the hotel brand app installed on their phone and accepted the app terms) and they could determine how effective their marketing campaigns were (such as a new branding of their coffee shop advertisements, upsells, spa packages, etc.) and they could get real data on what worked and what didn't. We saw TONS of differences between countries and even within regions of countries. Southern Germany is different from Eastern Germany, for example, in their morning routines.

Anyway, yes, COVID-19...let's hope things calm down a bit and we are near the saturation point.

I went to hospital for gastritis.... I was struggling to breathe and had coughing fits, vomiting and lack of energy.........it was simply gastritis. They tested me for covid but it came back negative.

I could have the virus. I’m living with my girlfriend and her family right now and her younger sister is interning to be a doctor and has been taking care of a patient with coronavirus for the last week. She’s getting tested tomorrow. If she is positive for it most likely everyone else in the house will be too, myself included.

Backfire, I hope you don't get it....whatever it is.

Originally posted by Blakemore
I went to hospital for gastritis.... I was struggling to breathe and had coughing fits, vomiting and lack of energy.........it was simply gastritis. They tested me for covid but it came back negative.

Good to hear you don't have it.

Thx

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The key to their early response, w/c is a big reason for their success? They didn’t trust China or the WHO.

I wonder how many people are wondering whether they have it or have had it. I think anyone with any symptoms right now is worried it might be the coronavirus.

So a tiger at the Bronx zoo tests positive.

Just how accurate are these tests?

U.S. Surgeon General

“The next week is going to be our Pearl Harbor moment, it’s going to be our 9/11 moment, it’s going to be the hardest moment for many Americans in their entire lives. And we really need to understand that if we want to flatten that curve and get through to the other side, everyone needs to do their part,” he said during an interview on “Meet the Press.”

...also the Surgeon General:

what if Jerome 2.0 Is right?
can we trust Jerome 2.0 now he was permitted by trump to engage the public in some real talk, instead of reckless happy talk and denial?

Remember when Capitalism was said to cure all lifes ills?

And now we're out of masks and hand sanitizer. Yet China, oddly, had no such shortages.

Just maybe a profit driven business is not who you want in charge during a pandemic, when meeting the needs of the moment may be unprofitable due to worries of "overstock" once the pandemic ends..

Originally posted by cdtm
Remember when Capitalism was said to cure all lifes ills?

And now we're out of masks and hand sanitizer. Yet China, oddly, had no such shortages.

Just [b]maybe a profit driven business is not who you want in charge during a pandemic, when meeting the needs of the moment may be unprofitable due to worries of "overstock" once the pandemic ends.. [/B]

I completely agree, there are things that markets are good at, and there's things that centralized or community organization is good at, we should use both, and they should both be in the service of people as a whole.

The rigid and blind adherence to one specific system is misguided and outright dangerous.

Originally posted by dadudemon

To me, this type of data is super interesting. We see an obvious case spike but not an obvious death spike related to their women's march. And we can explain both reasons for that data fairly easily.

I used to do this type of work ("big data analytics) for the hospitality industry and it was very fun. Much more fun that predicting deaths. I could show hotels gray dot heat maps (meaning it just took a snap shot of their location using beacons all over the building if the guest had the hotel brand app installed on their phone and accepted the app terms) and they could determine how effective their marketing campaigns were (such as a new branding of their coffee shop advertisements, upsells, spa packages, etc.) and they could get real data on what worked and what didn't. We saw TONS of differences between countries and even within regions of countries. Southern Germany is different from Eastern Germany, for example, in their morning routines.

Anyway, yes, COVID-19...let's hope things calm down a bit and we are near the saturation point.

I find the data very interesting as well, I think we will learn a lot about the world from this pandemic, and we might see some well needed changes as well, it is too bad it seems to be coming with a large human cost.

You've referenced modeling you've done before, what assumptions did you base your modeling on, is there a post you could point me to where I could read up on it, or perhaps you could elaborate on some of it.

Originally posted by Artol
I find the data very interesting as well, I think we will learn a lot about the world from this pandemic, and we might see some well needed changes as well, it is too bad it seems to be coming with a large human cost.

You've referenced modeling you've done before, what assumptions did you base your modeling on, is there a post you could point me to where I could read up on it, or perhaps you could elaborate on some of it.

Even better, I'll share my excel spreadsheet if my predictions are correct. I'll turn it into a google sheets or something.