I also once went out to see if I could figure out what exactly happened politics-wise before the dropping of the Hiroshima-bomb. Nothing seems conclusive. Would the Japanese have surrendered regardless? Who knows?
What makes me wonder is that in an August 9 report on the Potsdam conference, Truman declared: "The world will note that the first atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima, a military base. That was because we wished in this first attack to avoid, in so far as possible, the killing of civilians." (Quoted in Alperovitz, Decision, p. 521.)
Was Truman unaware of the fact that the vast majority of those who died were civilians?
Publicly and even privately Truman continued to refer to Hiroshima and Nagasaki as military targets and defended his decision to drop the bomb until the end of his life.
But Truman was so unmoved by the devastation in Hiroshima that he gave the order August 9 for Nagasaki to be bombed.
That one, the second bomb is a crime against humanity IMHO. There was no need.
Approximately 43,000 troops were stationed in Hiroshima at the time of the bombing, but the fact that the city had largely escaped conventional aerial bombardment as late as August 1945 speaks to the fact that the Allies considered the city to be of low importance militarily.
The criteria actually set out by the committee that had been established to identify possible targets for the new atomic bombs during its initial meetings in April 1945 were as follows: "(1) they be important targets in a large urban area of more than three miles diameter,
(2) they be capable of being damaged effectively by a blast, and
(3) they are likely to be unattacked by next August." In addition, they agreed
that psychological factors in the target selection were of great importance. Two aspects of this are (1) obtaining the greatest psychological effect against Japan and (2) making the initial use sufficiently spectacular for the importance of the weapon to be internationally recognized when publicity on it is released. (Quoted in Alperovitz, Decision, p. 524.)
We’re told, that the Allies were forced to drop the bomb because the Japanese would never surrender – that the Japanese were ”a nation of fanatics”, where ”even the children would willingly commit suicide before surrendering”.
Paul McNutt, chairman of the War Manpower Commission, told a public audience in 1945 that he favored "the extermination of the Japanese in toto."
The Americans were told that the Japanese were so dangerous, in fact, that people of Japanese descent, irrespective of their citizenship status, were forced into concentration camps across the United States for the duration of the war with Japan.
It’s easy to look back almost 60 years later, with what we know today. Both sides had propaganda, both sides probably wanted an end to the war. What really happened… Who knows?