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Counterterrorism Expert: U.S. Gun Policy Poses a National Security Threat
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Surtur
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by snowdragon
The reason I asked that in regards to this :

"If you purchase a firearm from an unlicensed or private seller, you do not need to undergo a background check at all."

Any merchant that buys guns from manufacturers to sell is tracked, if they want to stay in business it doesn't benefit them to not background check because the guns will all trace back to them.

I've never seen a vendor at a gun show sell a gun without a background check in the state of MO, I can't speak to all places obviously. If it is a used gun its probably pretty old BECAUSE if the seller isn't licensed and the they sell their gun its still tracks back to the original owner..............so once again they would be responsible for any potential actions taken with said weapon.


I thought it was against the law to sell a gun without a license.


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Old Post Dec 28th, 2017 08:15 PM
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Surtur
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https://www.atf.gov/file/100871/download

"As a general rule, you will need a license if you repetitively buy and
sell firearms with the principal motive of making a profit. In contrast,
if you only make occasional sales of firearms from your personal
collection, you do not need to be licensed."


This needs to be changed. It would mean I could legally make a one time sale to someone without any sort of background check if I wanted. It would make it easy for families to sell relatives guns.


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Old Post Dec 28th, 2017 08:17 PM
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Beniboybling
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by snowdragon
This is an interesting video in regards to the topic:

CNNGunShowBuys

Shocking but it really reflects our mindset on marketing and making money and the gun culture in general.
Wow. This is the most immediate problem imo, background checks and similar laws are pointless if you cannot enforce them.


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Old Post Dec 29th, 2017 01:01 PM
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Flyattractor
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Does this "Counter-terrorism Expert" factor in all those Illegal Guns Obama gave to Drug Cartels?


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Old Post Dec 29th, 2017 08:18 PM
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Silent Master
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Re: Counterterrorism Expert: U.S. Gun Policy Poses a National Security Threat

quote: (post)
Originally posted by Adam_PoE
You can go down to a gun show at the local convention center and come away with a fully-automatic assault rifle, without a background check, and most likely without having to show an identification card.


I'd like to see some proof of this.


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posted by Badabing
I don't know why some of you are going on about being right and winning. Rob and Impediment were in on this gag because I PMed them. Silent and Rao PMed me and figured I changed the post. I highly doubt anybody thought Quan made the post, but simply played along just for the lulz.

Old Post Dec 29th, 2017 10:27 PM
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SquallX
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Re: Counterterrorism Expert: U.S. Gun Policy Poses a National Security Threat

quote: (post)
Originally posted by Adam_PoE
You can go down to a gun show at the local convention center and come away with a fully-automatic assault rifle, without a background check, and most likely without having to show an identification card.


I call bullshit on that. Show me the proof.

I know for a fact you need a special license to own a fully auto gun, let alone to sell one. If youíre caught with a fully automated weapon, thatís federal time youíre doing.

Old Post Dec 30th, 2017 02:54 AM
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Adam_PoE
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Re: Re: Counterterrorism Expert: U.S. Gun Policy Poses a National Security Threat

quote: (post)
Originally posted by Silent Master
I'd like to see some proof of this.


quote: (post)
Originally posted by SquallX
I call bullshit on that. Show me the proof.

I know for a fact you need a special license to own a fully auto gun, let alone to sell one. If youíre caught with a fully automated weapon, thatís federal time youíre doing.


Ask al Qaeda spokesperson Adam Gadahn, he is the one who said it. You both conveniently left that part out of your selective quote.


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Old Post Dec 30th, 2017 06:31 AM
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SquallX
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Re: Re: Re: Counterterrorism Expert: U.S. Gun Policy Poses a National Security Threat

quote: (post)
Originally posted by Adam_PoE
Ask al Qaeda spokesperson Adam Gadahn, he is the one who said it. You both conveniently left that part out of your selective quote.


Right!? Because neither have never lied before to support their end games?

So I ask again to show me proof. Itís actually a federal crime to own, or sell a fully automated weapons without the proper papers.

The only way to get away with this is if youíre dealing in the black market.

Itís all funny that terrorist hasnít infiltrate gun shows, if said guns were so easily accessible.

Old Post Dec 30th, 2017 06:43 AM
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Flyattractor
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Counterterrorism Expert: U.S. Gun Policy Poses a National Security Threat

And yet places like California make it Legal to knowingly spread AIDS and HIV.

We live in a funny old world.


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Old Post Dec 30th, 2017 07:10 AM
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jaden101
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Re: Re: Counterterrorism Expert: U.S. Gun Policy Poses a National Security Threat


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Old Post Dec 30th, 2017 11:14 AM
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Silent Master
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Re: Re: Re: Counterterrorism Expert: U.S. Gun Policy Poses a National Security Threat

quote: (post)
Originally posted by Adam_PoE
Ask al Qaeda spokesperson Adam Gadahn, he is the one who said it. You both conveniently left that part out of your selective quote.


If you didn't agree with his statement, you should have said so when you posted it.

So just to be clear; you don't agree with him, right?


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posted by Badabing
I don't know why some of you are going on about being right and winning. Rob and Impediment were in on this gag because I PMed them. Silent and Rao PMed me and figured I changed the post. I highly doubt anybody thought Quan made the post, but simply played along just for the lulz.

Old Post Dec 30th, 2017 11:43 AM
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Rockydonovang
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quote:
Right!? Because neither have never lied before to support their end games?

-> Is caught lying
-> Deflects with "other people lie too"

Old Post Dec 30th, 2017 12:51 PM
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Flyattractor
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Rockydonovang
-> Is caught lying
-> Deflects with "other people lie too"


It worked for the Clintons and Obama.


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Old Post Dec 30th, 2017 06:53 PM
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Adam_PoE
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Counterterrorism Expert: U.S. Gun Policy Poses a National Security Threat

quote: (post)
Originally posted by Silent Master
If you didn't agree with his statement, you should have said so when you posted it.

So just to be clear; you don't agree with him, right?


It is not taking a position to report what someone said.


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Old Post Dec 30th, 2017 10:09 PM
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Silent Master
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Counterterrorism Expert: U.S. Gun Policy Poses a National Security Threat

quote: (post)
Originally posted by Adam_PoE
It is not taking a position to report what someone said.


So what is your position?


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posted by Badabing
I don't know why some of you are going on about being right and winning. Rob and Impediment were in on this gag because I PMed them. Silent and Rao PMed me and figured I changed the post. I highly doubt anybody thought Quan made the post, but simply played along just for the lulz.

Old Post Dec 30th, 2017 10:29 PM
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Flyattractor
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Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Counterterrorism Expert: U.S. Gun Policy Poses a National Security Threat

quote: (post)
Originally posted by Silent Master
So what is your position?


What ever the DNC tells him it is.


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Old Post Dec 30th, 2017 11:22 PM
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DarthSkywalker0
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Just some gun info for all of those who are curious.

(please log in to view the image)

(please log in to view the image)

No correlation between states gun policy and overall homicide rate. While it can affect their firearm homicide rate, it is just replaced by other deaths. To quote the professor, UCLA Eugine Volokh,

quote:

1.Some killers would kill with knives or other weapons instead of guns.
2.To the extent that today some attempted killings are stopped by defenders who have guns, those attempts might succeed if the guns become harder enough for defenders to get.
3.To the extent that today some potential killings (or attempted robberies, rapes, or burglaries that lead to killings) are deterred by attackersí fear of running into a gun, it might be that fewer will be deterred if guns become harder enough for defenders to get.


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Here is a scatter plot.

(please log in to view the image)

To quote Volokh,

quote:
The correlation between the homicide rate and Brady score in all 51 jurisdictions is +.032 (on a scale of -1 to +1), which means that states with more gun restrictions on average have very slightly higher homicide rates, though the tendency is so small as to be essentially zero. (If you omit the fatal gun accident rates, then the correlation would be +.065, which would make the more gun-restricting states look slightly worse; but again, the correlation would be small enough to be essentially zero, given all the other possible sources of variation.) If we use the National Journal data (adding the columns for each state, counting 1 for each dark blue, which refers to broad restrictions, 0.5 for each light blue, which refers to medium restrictions, and 0 for each grey, which refers to no or light restrictions), the results are similar: +0.017 or +0.051 if one omits the fatal gun accident rates.


Response to some objections/questions:

What about Australia?

The International Journal of Criminal Justice Sciences did a meta-analysis on each of the studies regarding Australia's gun policy and gleaned this result.

quote:
ďStudies on Australiaís firearms legislation, using different time series and different statistical methodologies, have produced consistent results. In light of this, it appears reasonable to conclude that on the basis of available research there is no evidence for an impact of the NFA [Australiaís gun control legislation] on firearm homicides

Although the total number of published peer-reviewed studies based on time series data remains relatively small (fewer than 15 studies, at the time of writing), none of these studies has found a significant impact of the Australian legislative changes on the pre-existing downward trend in firearm homicide.ď


Show me causation, not just correlation.

I have shown some graphs and data which certainly indicate no correlation. But we all know that correlation does NOT equal causation. To answer this question, I refer to the work of the economists Mark Gius and John Lott.

quote:
The purpose of the present study is to determine the effects of state-level assault weapons bans and concealed weapons laws on state-level murder rates. Using data for the period 1980 to 2009 and controlling for state and year fixed effects, the results of the present study suggest that states with restrictions on the carrying of concealed weapons had higher gun-related murder rates than other states. It was also found that assault weapons bans did not significantly affect murder rates at the state level. These results suggest that restrictive concealed weapons laws may cause an increase in gun-related murders at the state level. The results of this study are consistent with some prior research in this area, most notably Lott and Mustard (1997).


What about mass shootings?

Before I dive into this objection, I want to clarify some misnomers about mass shootings. The Congressional Research Service did a study regarding mass-shootings in America. According to the CRS, mass shootings have killed 567 people over the course of three decades. This means that mass shootings make up less than 1% of all firearm homicides. That being said gun policy still does policy still has nominal to negative effects on Mass-shootings. To quote the abstract of another study conducted by Mark Gius,

quote:
The purpose of the present study is to determine the effects of federal and state assault weapons bans on public mass shootings. Using a Poisson effect model and data for the period 1982 to 2011, it was found that both state and federal assault weapons bans have statistically significant and negative effects on mass shooting fatalities but that only the federal assault weapons ban had a negative effect on mass shooting injuries. This study is one of the first studies that looks solely at the effects of assault weapons bans on public mass shootings.


What is the contrary evidence?

The Standford Law Professor John Donahue has conducted a multitude scholarly work regarding guns precipitating more crime. I will begin by attacking his methodology and then dive into the data. The study at hand looks at two to four states and attempts to use their data to apply it to the entire country. To quote Lott,

quote:
This new study picks out just two to four states, and in many cases effectively just use Hawaii to compare with right-to-carry states. In the cases of Idaho and Minnesota, over 96 percent of the comparison is just with Hawaii. For Mississippi, Nebraska, and Utah, Hawaii counts for between 72 percent and 83 percent of the comparison.


The fundamental premise of the study is that police underestimate crime committed by permit-holders. To quote Lott yet again,

quote:
But Donohue's only evidence is two news stories from 2000 and 2007 where permit holders committed crimes. Neither story shows any failure by police to record the incidents. The study never mentions how large the police error rate would have to be in order to for their results to hold.

Take Michigan, where Donohue claims that right-to-carry laws increased the violent crime rate by 8.8 percent. During 2015, 22 of Michigan's roughly 600,000 permit holders were convicted of violent crimes, and many of those had nothing to do with guns. Permit holders accounted for 0.053 percent of violent crime in the state. Therefore, Michigan experienced an increase in crime that was 166 times greater than permit holderís share of violent crimes. And all this assumes that permit holders didnít stop or deter any crimes.

For these results to be plausible, Michigan police departments would have to be missing 99.4 percent of cases where permit holders have committed violent crimes.

Other states with detailed data show similar results: Louisiana police would have to miss 99.5 percent of crimes committed by permit holders, Oklahoma 99.93 percent, Tennessee 99.98 percent, and Texas 99.54 percent.


So, not only is Donahue using 4 states to gauge the effect of federal policy, he is also over asserting the crime of permit-holders with little evidence. Not to mention, the majority of the empirical work on the subject is not congruent with Donahue's results. Maryland Law did a study on all of the published, peer review work regarding 'right to carry laws' and crimes. Here is their findings,

quote:
There have been a total of 29 peer reviewed studies by economists and criminologists, 18 supporting the hypothesis that shall-issue laws reduce crime, 10 not finding any significant effect on crime, including the NRC report, and [Aneja, Donohue, and Zhang]ís paper, using a different model and different data, finding that right-to-carry laws temporarily increase one type of violent crime, aggravated assaults.


There is only one published study that indicates that "right to carry concealed laws" do decrease crime.

This article pretty clearly goes through all of the data and debunks said study in far greater detail then I have: https://crimeresearch.org/2017/07/b...ja-weber-study/

Old Post Dec 31st, 2017 04:38 PM
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DarthSkywalker0
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I have seen many articles from Vox which display studies that indicate gun-ownership increases homicides. I will go through each Vox study and aggregation and discuss the flaws with each and then show the most recent data on the subject.

Vox Study one: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17070975

In a lot of my responses, I will be citing the biggest meta-analysis conducted in recent history regarding the relationship between gun homicides and gun ownership. So, the fundamental problem with this study is that it does not include the casual order issue. The causal order issue is the idea that crime rates affect gun rates, instead of the reverse. The lack of accountment for this issue causes the study's results to be tainted. There are a few ways to account for this predicament. To quote the Journal of Criminal Justice,

quote:
A later study addressed the causal order issue by using a panel design, relating changes in gun owner status over time to changes in fear of crime (Hauser & Kleck, 2013). The study indicated that increases in fear do motivate gun acquisition, but decreases in fear do not motivate getting rid of guns. At the macro-level, the combined operation of these two effects should generate a positive association between gun levels and crime rates, assuming that higher crime rates lead to higher levels of fear of crime. In sum, the hypothesis that crime rates affect gun ownership is more than a mere logical possibility Ė there is considerable empirical evidence to indicate that such an effect is a reality.


Vox Study Two: http://ajph.aphapublications.org/do...JPH.2013.301409

John Lott wrote a letter to the authors of the study asking questioning their regression model and it remains unanswered: https://crimeresearch.org/2013/12/p...1981-2010-ajph/

Vox now cites an aggregation of the research conducted by Harvard Journal of Public Health in 2004. It is worth noting that a more recent Harvard Law Study has been conducted and found the opposite: http://www.law.harvard.edu/students...auseronline.pdf

The main issue with each of these aggregations is that they do not identify the strongest and weakest studies and use all of the data despite its legitimacy. There is only one aggregation that has analyzed each study used. https://www.hoplofobia.info/wp-cont...he-Evidence.pdf

Here is the part of the abstract and conclusion:

quote:
Methods: Each study was assessed as to whether it solved or reduced each of three critical methodological problems: (1) whether a validated measure of gun prevalence was used, (2) whether the authors controlled for more than a handful of possible confounding variables, and (3) whether the researchers used suitable causal order procedures to deal with the possibility of crime rates affecting gun rates, instead of the reverse.

Results: It was found that most studies did not solve any of these problems, and that research that did a better job of addressing these problems was less likely to support the more-guns-cause-more crime hypothesis. Indeed, none of the studies that solved all three problems supported the hypothesis.

Conclusions: Technically weak research mostly supports the hypothesis, while strong research does not. It must be tentatively concluded that higher gun ownership rates do not cause higher crime rates, including homicide rates.


Great Podcast on the subject: http://hwcdn.libsyn.com/p/d/f/7/df7...fc1f377889d3e6d

I have gone to great lengths to show that the claims made by this Counterterrorism Expert are inaccurate and fallacious.

Old Post Dec 31st, 2017 04:38 PM
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Flyattractor
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So "Great Length" includes putting up very easy to fake and crappy looking graphs and charts?


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Old Post Dec 31st, 2017 04:56 PM
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DarthSkywalker0
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Flyattractor
So "Great Length" includes putting up very easy to fake and crappy looking graphs and charts?


Deconstructing the most recent meta-analyses on guns. Looking at over 20 studies on gun homicides. So, I'd say based on the average post on KMC that is great lengths. And each of my graphs is from credible sources. The first graph is from the AEI, the next two are from a UCLA Law Professor on the Washington Post. The next two are from John Lott, who has been a criminologist and economist for years.

Last edited by DarthSkywalker0 on Dec 31st, 2017 at 05:03 PM

Old Post Dec 31st, 2017 05:00 PM
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