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Counterterrorism Expert: U.S. Gun Policy Poses a National Security Threat
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ILS
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Literally none of that matters okey


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Old Post Dec 31st, 2017 05:28 PM
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Originally posted by DarthSkywalker0
Deconstructing the most recent meta-analyses on guns. Looking at over 20 studies on gun homicides. So, I'd say based on the average post on KMC that is great lengths. And each of my graphs is from credible sources. The first graph is from the AEI, the next two are from a UCLA Law Professor on the Washington Post. The next two are from John Lott, who has been a criminologist and economist for years.


Plus people always talk about the number of gun deaths(and dishonest enough to include suicides when what people care about is guns being used to kill others), but they rarely discuss the number of times guns are used defensively each year. Which far outstrips the number of deaths per year, even if you include suicides. And a defensive use of a gun isn't even necessarily an instance of using it to kill someone or even firing it. If you try to rob me and I pull out a gun and you back off and leave...I just used that gun to defend myself.


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Old Post Dec 31st, 2017 05:36 PM
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Some videos worth watching:





And here is Ben debunking the nonsense Jimmy Kimmel spewed with some interesting stats:


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Old Post Dec 31st, 2017 05:43 PM
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lazybones
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by DarthSkywalker0

I have gone to great lengths to show that the claims made by this Counterterrorism Expert are inaccurate and fallacious.
Uh, no. You've misunderstood what the expert said and have went off in a tangent posting statistics that have little bearing on what was claimed. What the expert said was that America's lax gun laws allow extremists to more easily purchase lethal weapons, and we have more than one example of terrorist groups encouraging their members to take advantage of America's gun laws. The expert said nothing about the correlation (or lack thereof) between gun ownership and overall homicides, or indeed mass shootings (although America undoubtedly leads the world in that metric). He simply cited America's current regulations as a potential danger as they could be exploited by extremists. That's his job as a counter terrorism expert, to pre-empt the actions of terrorists and identify vulnerabilities. Relative to other countries, purchasing guns in America is very easy, so that will be a tempting target for terrorists and is a totally fair thing to draw attention to.

Last edited by lazybones on Dec 31st, 2017 at 07:04 PM

Old Post Dec 31st, 2017 06:56 PM
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by lazybones
Uh, no. You've misunderstood what the expert said and have went off in a tangent posting statistics that have little bearing on what was claimed. What the expert said was that America's lax gun laws allow extremists to more easily purchase lethal weapons, and we have more than one example of terrorist groups encouraging their members to take advantage of America's gun laws. The expert said nothing about the correlation (or lack thereof) between gun ownership and overall homicides, or indeed mass shootings (although America undoubtedly leads the world in that metric). He simply cited America's current regulations as a potential danger as they could be exploited by extremists. That's his job as a counter terrorism expert, to pre-empt the actions of terrorists and identify vulnerabilities. Relative to other countries, purchasing guns in America is very easy, so that will be a tempting target for terrorists and is a totally fair thing to draw attention to.


How do you recommend we solve a situation like...a private transaction of a gun? Because that is how these things happen. There is no "gunshow loophole". There is a "private transaction loophole", a licensed firearm seller cannot legally sell you a gun at a gun show without a background check and ID. So how do we stop it? I'm curious for solutions. Like if some dude is selling a gun privately and I have cash money on hand, what law prevents that from going down?

This is an open question to anyone here: I'm genuinely curious about viable solutions.


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Last edited by Surtur on Dec 31st, 2017 at 07:13 PM

Old Post Dec 31st, 2017 07:09 PM
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SquallX
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You know, this is pretty funny.

When ISIS claimed they we’re going to infiltrate the refugee camps, the left said nothing. But when ISIS talks about guns, dear Lord, stop the presses.

Illegal selling of guns at gun show is not the majority, is the minority. I think steps should be taken to stop this from happening, but let’s not use it as away to pass more useless laws.

Old Post Dec 31st, 2017 11:49 PM
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by SquallX
You know, this is pretty funny.

When ISIS claimed they we’re going to infiltrate the refugee camps, the left said nothing. But when ISIS talks about guns, dear Lord, stop the presses.

Illegal selling of guns at gun show is not the majority, is the minority. I think steps should be taken to stop this from happening, but let’s not use it as away to pass more useless laws.


Lol, valid points that I'm sure will be either ignored or some half assed excuse made for it.


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Old Post Dec 31st, 2017 11:59 PM
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Silent Master
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I'm still waiting on proof in regards to this claim.

quote:
You can go down to a gun show at the local convention center and come away with a fully-automatic assault rifle, without a background check, and most likely without having to show an identification card


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I don't know why some of you are going on about being right and winning. Rob and Impediment were in on this gag because I PMed them. Silent and Rao PMed me and figured I changed the post. I highly doubt anybody thought Quan made the post, but simply played along just for the lulz.

Old Post Jan 1st, 2018 12:25 AM
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Silent Master
I'm still waiting on proof in regards to this claim.


The hilarious thing is fully automatic assault rifles are illegal and have been since the 80s lol. So of course you wouldn't go through a background check. I'm shocked that criminals that sell guns don't do background checks.


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Last edited by Surtur on Jan 1st, 2018 at 12:32 AM

Old Post Jan 1st, 2018 12:28 AM
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Flyattractor
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Surtur
The hilarious thing is fully automatic assault rifles are illegal and have been since the 80s lol. So of course you wouldn't go through a background check. I'm shocked that criminals that sell guns don't do background checks.


Oh for the good old days when you could buy a Tommy Gun from a hardware store for less then $20.


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Old Post Jan 1st, 2018 12:54 AM
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Flyattractor
Oh for the good old days when you could buy a Tommy Gun from a hardware store for less then $20.


Indeed, you would literally need a time machine in order to legally purchase a fully automatic assault rifle. And if one has a time machine why waste it on that?


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Old Post Jan 1st, 2018 01:58 AM
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Silent Master
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Surtur
Indeed, you would literally need a time machine in order to legally purchase a fully automatic assault rifle. And if one has a time machine why waste it on that?


You can actually legally purchase them now, it's just not easy or cheap.


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posted by Badabing
I don't know why some of you are going on about being right and winning. Rob and Impediment were in on this gag because I PMed them. Silent and Rao PMed me and figured I changed the post. I highly doubt anybody thought Quan made the post, but simply played along just for the lulz.

Old Post Jan 1st, 2018 02:44 AM
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lazybones
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by DarthSkywalker0
]I did not misunderstand what the expert said. The point of my post, though I agree it was more of an overarching statement, then a debunk, was to illustrate that despite the ready availableness of guns it does not hamper safety. I highly doubt that terrorists use the US gun policy as their primary source of guns as opposed to arms dealers. But, America is not the leader in mass shootings if we account for population.

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This article addresses the terrorist gun connection quite well: https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-ban-gun-sales/
That's honestly very interesting, haven't seen mass shootings broken down that way before. On the other hand, though, there was a recent study which found that the US only has 5% of the world's population but 31% of its mass-shootings, so that would suggest it's still a much bigger problem in America than other countries.

https://www.ft.com/__origami/servic...n&width=500

All that being said, the musings of a counter terrorist expert are not flawless. But I doubt someone with almost 3 decades of experience would be ignorant of the statistics, and must have good reasons for his concerns (one of them being the words and claims of the terrorists themselves).


quote:
But my post was less of a debunk and more of a general statement. Also, when do you intend to respond to my welfare post? Not to rush you, just curious. You can always concede wink. ]
You underestimate the determination of this statist. wink.

Anyway, I'll be getting a new computer on Wednesday which will free me from the malaise of my smartphone. You could use the time between now and then to write up a plea for mercy, and perhaps I will consider it. smile .

Old Post Jan 1st, 2018 03:01 AM
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SquallX
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Silent Master
You can actually legally purchase them now, it's just not easy or cheap.



Not only is the price high, but the wait time for everything is close to a year.

Funny thing, most people that speak on weapons doesn’t even know what AR stands for. They always claims it stands for automatic riffle.

Old Post Jan 1st, 2018 03:38 AM
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Adam_PoE
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by SquallX
You know, this is pretty funny.

When ISIS claimed they we’re going to infiltrate the refugee camps, the left said nothing. But when ISIS talks about guns, dear Lord, stop the presses.

Illegal selling of guns at gun show is not the majority, is the minority. I think steps should be taken to stop this from happening, but let’s not use it as away to pass more useless laws.


If there was the same 24-month long vetting process in place before one could purchase a firearm as there is for one to enter the country as a refugee, you might have an argument.


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Old Post Jan 1st, 2018 07:02 AM
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SquallX
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Adam_PoE
If there was the same 24-month long vetting process in place before one could purchase a firearm as there is for one to enter the country as a refugee, you might have an argument.


Be quiet. You’re just spewing crap now.

Buying a weapon on a country you live, is not the same as a refugee seeking to come here.

Old Post Jan 1st, 2018 03:13 PM
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Adam_PoE
If there was the same 24-month long vetting process in place before one could purchase a firearm as there is for one to enter the country as a refugee, you might have an argument.


You ever gonna prove this?

"You can go down to a gun show at the local convention center and come away with a fully-automatic assault rifle, without a background check, and most likely without having to show an identification card"

Prove it.


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Old Post Jan 1st, 2018 03:30 PM
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Adam_PoE
If there was the same 24-month long vetting process in place before one could purchase a firearm as there is for one to enter the country as a refugee, you might have an argument.


quote: (post)
Originally posted by Surtur
Lol, valid points that I'm sure will be either ignored or some half assed excuse made for it.


smile


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Old Post Jan 1st, 2018 03:32 PM
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by Silent Master
You can actually legally purchase them now, it's just not easy or cheap.



The hilarious thing is it seems like it would be easier to just illegally purchase these weapons lol.

I'm thinking that terrorists probably would just buy one illegally as opposed to the long ass wait time, the large amount of money, the yearly taxes you need to pay where if you fail you need to sell the gun...yeah, sounds like a lot of hassle for a terrorist.

I do hope it was just Adam making the retarded claim. It is alarming if this "expert" thinks this is possible.


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Last edited by Surtur on Jan 1st, 2018 at 03:46 PM

Old Post Jan 1st, 2018 03:43 PM
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DarthSkywalker0
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quote: (post)
Originally posted by lazybones
That's honestly very interesting, haven't seen mass shootings broken down that way before. On the other hand, though, there was a recent study which found that the US only has 5% of the world's population but 31% of its mass-shootings, so that would suggest it's still a much bigger problem in America than other countries.

https://www.ft.com/__origami/servic...n&width=500


This study is quite frankly inaccurate. The crimonlogist Gary Kleck has detailed his issues with the studies. I will mention a few.

Problem 1: The study attempts to analyize 46 years of data. The problem with this is that, "while data may be easily found for U.S. shootings, compiling information for developing nations could be all but impossible.". Due to the artificially low data, it creates a potempkin phasad that indicates that U.S. represents a higher bulk of mass shootings then it actually does.

Problem 2: Lankford, the author of the study, has not yet provided his methodology as to how he found the mass-shooting rates in developing countries. While Fox certainly is a skewed source, I found this passage interesting.

quote:
When asked for his data by FoxNews.com, Lankford declined to provide it. In his study, Lankford says he took NYPD data on mass shootings -- which he acknowledges misses international cases -- and "supplemented [it] with additional data” internationally. Lankford does not say exactly how he collected that additional international data, just noting that it came from searches of “open source” documents and that “all efforts were made to ensure that the same data collection methodology employed by the NYPD was used.”

The NYPD notes that its own researchers “limited [their] Internet searches to English-language sites,” therefore under-counting foreign mass shootings.

FoxNews.com asked Lankford whether he used the same language method as the NYPD, or if he searched using more than just English. Lankford replied that, “my data were not limited to English-language searches." Asked what languages he used in his searches, Lankford declined to provide that information.

“Lankford does not claim to be able to read all the languages used in those 171 nations, or to have made use of others with this ability,” Kleck said. “This method would result in a near-total omission of relevant news stories outside of the English-speaking part of the world.”

Lankford said he may share his methods with fellow scholars at a later date.

"I am open-minded about sharing data with other scholars for collaborative purposes, and consider those opportunities on a case-by-case basis. This is all the assistance I can provide at this time,”


Problem 3: The lack of peer review. To quote Kleck and professor Reed,

quote:
No qualified scholar would accept work by a researcher who could not, or would not, even explain exactly how he measured his most important variable [mass shootings],


quote:
Any research that seeks to influence the public debate on this topic, as this research clearly does, should be required to make their data available so that other researchers can confirm their findings,”


The only people who reviewed the study were anonymous, independent researchers.

Problem 4: Even if the data were true, the US does not have the highest mass-shooting mortallity per capita.

(please log in to view the image)

Problem 5: I am now going to cite a graph which has a lot of contention and hopefully justify its usage.

(please log in to view the image)

So, there are two studies which have different results then this graph. So, why is this analysis more accurate then the other two. The first contrary analysis was conducted by Everytown for Gun Safety. The first fault is that it includes masshootings in private homes. The problem with including private homes is that the reasoning behind a public and private mass shooting is notably different.(Drug crimes, robery, kidnapping, murder). So, the research which is inside of this graph looks as at mass public shootings. Here is the FBI's definition of a mass public shooting:

quote:
The FBI definition of mass public shootings excludes “shootings that resulted from gang or drug violence” or that were part of some other crime. The FBI also defines “public” places as “includ[ing] commercial areas (divided into malls, businesses open to pedestrian traffic, and businesses closed to pedestrian traffic), educational environments (divided into schools [pre-kindergarten through 12th grade] and IHEs), open spaces, government properties (divided into military and other government properties), houses of worship, and health care facilities.”



They also mislabel over 18 mass shootings. Those mislables can be found here: https://crimeresearch.org/2014/09/m...mass-shootings/

The second contrary study is inside Louis Klarevas. The issue with Klarevas is that he does not use the FBI definition of mass shootings. To quote Klarevas,

quote:
In all fairness to Lott, when he conducted his study, he employed a definition of mass shootings that was different from the ones used by Duwe’s team and myself. . . . he disqualified all shooting incidents that were part of a broader crime: ‘gang activity; drug dealing; a holdup or robbery; drive-by shootings that explicitly or implicitly involved gang activity; organized crime, or professional hits; and serial killings, or killings that took place over the span of more than one day.'”


Here is the FBI definition of a mass shooting.

quote:
The FBI definition of mass public shootings excludes “shootings that resulted from gang or drug violence” or that were part of some other crime.33 The FBI also defines “public” places as “includ[ing] commercial areas (divided into malls, businesses open to pedestrian traffic, and busi- nesses closed to pedestrian traffic), educational environments (divided into schools [pre-kindergarten through twelfth grade] and IHEs), open spaces, government properties (divided into military and other govern- ment properties), houses of worship, and healthcare facilities.”


So it is my contention that Lott's graph is the most accurate.

Problem 6: All mass shootings, including private ones, make up less then 1% of firearm homicides. And of course there is the study by Gium which indicates that assault rifle bans increase public mass shootings.

quote:
The purpose of the present study is to determine the effects of federal and state assault weapons bans on public mass shootings. Using a Poisson effect model and data for the period 1982 to 2011, it was found that both state and federal assault weapons bans have statistically significant and negative effects on mass shooting fatalities but that only the federal assault weapons ban had a negative effect on mass shooting injuries. This study is one of the first studies that looks solely at the effects of assault weapons bans on public mass shootings.


quote:
All that being said, the musings of a counter terrorist expert are not flawless. But I doubt someone with almost 3 decades of experience would be ignorant of the statistics, and must have good reasons for his concerns (one of them being the words and claims of the terrorists themselves).


He did not provide any evidence to substaite his claims. So, while he may be aware of studies which I did not mention in either of my posts, he never cited any.

quote:
You underestimate the determination of this statist. wink.

Anyway, I'll be getting a new computer on Wednesday which will free me from the malaise of my smartphone. You could use the time between now and then to write up a plea for mercy, and perhaps I will consider it. smile.


I look forward to it. Good luck.

Old Post Jan 1st, 2018 09:59 PM
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