More predictions of a PS3 victory. 🙄
creen Digest, a marketing research company specializing in hi-tech media, has recently posted its findings regarding their analysis of the current console war until the year 2010. In the report, analyst Ed Barton predicts that the the PlayStation 3 will have more of a market share on a worldwide level, but the degree to which it will lead over the market will vary greatly according to region. According to his data, Sony will grab a significant portion of the market share in Japan, take a modest lead over Microsoft in Europe, and lose the battle against Microsoft by a small margin in the North American market. As for the Wii's performance, Barton sees Nintendo's next-gen console come up in a distant third within all three major regions.In an interview with GamaSutra, Barton reveals that, to obtain this data, Screen Digest first studied and recorded the rising costs required to develop the average next-gen console game:
"We took that cost and then modeled what we felt be the average price of a next generation title. Against that, we then set how many copies we thought would be needed to actually make a return on the title, as a percentage of what our forecasts were for next generation user-bases in what we feel is the key US market," he explained.
After factoring that data with the current installed next-gen user base, coupled with figures derived from sales data from the last console generation, Barton came to the conclusion that it will be tremendously difficult for most third-party publishers to make a return on their investments within 2007, and possibly into some portion of 2008. Therefore, he predicts that, in order for third-parties to maximize their profits at this stage of the console generation, the key to their success hinges on the release of their games on multiple platforms.
"This is why we think that you're now seeing a lot of games going multi-platform which were previously exclusive to a single platform, say PS3 or Xbox 360," he states.
"However, you're also seeing a lot of them going, especially with the Nintendo Wii I would argue, going multiplatform across Wii, PS2 and even handheld platforms, simply because this gives you obviously a much bigger userbase."
For that reason, he also believes that the PS2 will have a prolonged shelf-life that will extend well into this new console generation, possibly until the end of 2008.
To further sharpen his analysis, Barton also closely examined each console's unique strategy towards winning this console war. Sony has greatly expanded their roster of first-party developer staff to twice that of its competitors, Microsoft has strengthened its ties with third parties to create exclusive content, and Nintendo has focused entirely on gameplay innovation and, at the same time, resisted the temptation to embrace hi-definition graphics. Given these three distinct strategies, Screen Digest has predicted a Sony victory, followed by a close second-place finish from Microsoft, followed by a distant third-place showing for Nintendo. But Barton still feels that Nintendo is an unpredictable wild card, calling them the "Great Unknown":
"As market forecasters, it's very hard to take a view on a new strategy which is effectively what Nintendo are executing with the Wii. They've stepped aside in the graphical arms race, and improvements in graphical technology in a gaming sense has historically been what's driven market growth," Barton states.
"And having seen what they've done with the Nintendo DS - which obviously they've executed fantastically, and which has basically created a new gaming phenomenon - we don't deny the possibility that this is a possibility with the Wii."
In addition, the Wii's low cost of development has also presented possibilities for Nintendo's success, but according to Barton, the jury's still out on whether or not that will have an effect on the sales momentum for the console. In any case, although Screen Digest presently picks Sony to win, Barton admits that their forecast may be adjusted depending on how each system performs during this year's holiday season. In any case, this console generation will most likely be the closest three-way console war that this industry has ever seen.
I dont understand how people can look at the PS3 and what it offers now and what it has been shown for the future and say that the PS3 will win.