appletonia
major studmuffin
Chad. He's grown into a very good striker and is arguably the hardest hitter in the division. He's more explosive than Conor, he's very quick at closing the distance to find his striking range and is used to fighting guys who possess a reach advantage against him. He mixes his takedowns with his striking very well, and Conor would most likely be less inclined to use much of his kicking game in fear of the takedown. He's got the more proven submission game, and would have the advantage in the tight scrambles on the feet and in the clinch as well. And the closer the distance of the striking exchanges, the more likely we'll see Chad hurt him with a big punch, and possibly knock him out or finish him with a submission or TKO.
I'm not going to also say that Chad would definitely be able to take and hold him down with ease as we really don't know how good Conor's defensive wrestling is in that area, but it's certainly a possibility and something that's happened to a lot of great strikers in the UFC, and as it stands Conor's defensive wrestling is basically untested, and similarly we don't really know quite how much his striking will be inhibited by the fear of the takedown. He's literally going from never having fought a wrestler, to fighting possibly the best wrestler in MMA today.
Conor cuts an absolutely huge amount of weight as well and we haven't seen whether he'll have the cardio to perform in the championship rounds either if the fight gets there. We also haven't really seen him face adversity in the UFC, and don't know how he'll handle getting hit with big shots or being smothered on the ground.
And as Chad has been pointing out, he hasn't had to deal with an entire training camp of trash talk with Conor, which is something that seems to mentally break a lot of fighters going into the fight. And while he indeed hasn't had a full training camp, it is true, and as Chad's been saying, that often fighters overtrain themselves and are usually physically ready a few weeks into it. And Conor has been training for a compeltely different kind of fighter, and now has to completely change his gameplan against a guy who is probably the worst stylistic matchup for him in the division.
For Conor to win, he has to keep the fight standing and at his range, and if he manages to do that he'll probably finish Chad pretty easily (and Conor is similarly a very hard hitter and certainly has as good a puncher's chance as one might hope for - Chad does also get hit, not as much as Conor but Aldo was able to repeatedly rock him in their second fight, and of course KO'd him in their first), but I just don't see that happening. In every other position, Chad has the advantage imo, and he's got the explosiveness, vastly improved movement, experience with successfully combating superior reach and the wrestling to dictate the position of the fight and make it very uncomfortable for Conor.
Edit - not that I don't have huge respect for Conor's skills however. I think that right this second, he may very well be the best striker in MMA. He's simply going up against one of the best, most athletic and most well rounded fighters in MMA today (ever, even), and has an unproven defensive wrestling game. I have him at #4 in my rankings (Aldo, Mendes and Edgar being the top 3). I'd probably pick him over Lamas for example, who's a spectacular fighter.