One of the silly parts of this gun l;aws arguments is trying to prove they reduce crime based on the idea that places with gun control laws have a higher crime rate.
That's a false link. The truth is, these places developed high crime rates, and subsequently introduced anti-gun laws to try and deal with them.
A much more sensible way to look at it is to see the rate at which crime is dropping. Such figures clearly show that, in the States, crime is dropping much faster in palces with laws against, say, concealed handguns, than it is in places without.
Then there is strange idea that the stats that compare countries against themselves are more reliable than caomparing country country. Arrant nonsense. First of all, the stats comparing countries with themselves do not make a single link between the gun laws and any increase in crime. None. They are also being trated on the idea that they were intended to cause an enormous reduction in crime. Nope- they really were just to ban the guns which people were tired of. Fact is, though, that even before the gun control laws were introduced in places like Australia, they had not even remotely the amount of gun crime that the States has now. An increase in gun crime afterwards which pro-gun enthusiasts make take to mean that the laws are uselss in reality reflect something like five or six more incidents in one eyar than the year before- something far more likely to be linked to a simple increase in crime in general, and such a tiny number as to be irrelevant, seeing as that number happens in some ten minutes in the States.
Comparing countries against countries is very valid indeed. It is said that other factors may explain the difference. Might they? name them. There hasn't been a single one put forward that passes any sort of logical test. The only simple and direct link that can be made is between the US' 'unusual' attitude to guns, and their staggeringly enormous gun crume rate. Deal with the first and you deal with the second. Dealing with the first simply must involve doing something about gun law. That is the situation.
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"Becuase "Criminals already illegally manage to buy illegal firearms" isn't coherent at all."
Only if you could coherently link that to saying that gun control laws won't do anythihg. But you can't. The fact is, countries with gun control laws seem to have an impact on illegal guns too. More importantly, as I say above, this is all part of your general gun culture, which laws would start to address.
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" but since even in this hypothetical world there is the same motivations and number of criminals the crime would simply be shifted"
And yet that is not true. The American figures clearly show that the gun crimes are simply in addition to other crime- not instead of. So your point seems to be wrong; guns create more motivation for crime. Certainly in the US they are.
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"But that just brings us to the question: Would you rather have a 1 in a 100 chance of getting killed or a 1 in 10 chance of getting mugged/assaulted/raped/or other violent/confrontational crime?"
A highly misleading question. The situation is clear here- the amount of extra murders caused by your gun issue is huge. The idea that guns reduce any other crime isn't even an established fact. Even if they did- which I see no evidence for- the reduction is not even vaguely worth the enormous homicide rate.
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To repeat- the US gun crime problem is horrendous. Not simply high. if it iwas three or four times worse, THAT would be high. In fact it is over a hundred times worse. It is so beyond high that it cannot comfortably be expressed.
This is related to your gun culture.
The gun culture is inextricably linked with your gun laws.
You cannot solve this issue without, therefore, attacking that culture via the laws.
Continue to make excuses all you like- it is sitll your people dying out there, and the whole world is scorning you for it.