United States Presidential Election 2008 - Official Discussion Thread

Started by llagrok143 pages

I'm voting McCain....

😖hifty:

McCain is beating Obama by a margin of 48% to 45% in the daily Gallup poll.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110050/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Moves-Ahead-48-45.aspx

(that's among registered voters)

A new USA Today/Gallup poll has the McCain lead at 10 points!http://www.gallup.com/poll/110050/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Moves-Ahead-48-45.aspx

(this is among likely voters)

Realclearpolitics now has McCain up by 1 point when averaging all polls together.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

This includes the new daily gallup poll (McCain +3), the new USA Today/Gallup poll (McCain +10), Rasmussen tracking for Fri-Sun (McCain +1), another poll from tue-thur of last week (does not include McCains speech) that has Obama +6, a CBS poll from Mon-Wed that's a tie (does not include the Palin/McCain speeches), and another that has Obama +1 that was before the RNC even started.

Can't wait to see RCP poll averages after they get all fresh polls this week.

But ....wow! A 10 point lead? In any poll? Who would've thought that would happen for McCain? He was down 7 points before the convention, according to the USA Today/Gallup poll taken at that time. Meaning (at least according to them) that he had a 17 point bounce!

I was hoping for 10, and I was half-kidding.

Indeed, debates are coming up and many more things that could sway voters.

But for the moment, the McCain/Palin ticket is where all the buzz is.

Originally posted by KidRock
His support of the gun bans in Illinois and his support of the Washington DC gun ban say otherwise.

Well when a politician comes out and says "a local government has the right to constrain your Constitutional rights" and the reply is "Deal with it" it says a lot.


You do realize we don't and can't in a civilized society have absolute and unconditional freedom?

We have restraints on freedom constantly. You need to, to an extent. For example, the 'you can't shout fire in a theater' as far as restraints on freedom of speech are considered. Or gun control for the second amendment.

Originally posted by Symmetric Chaos
No it doesn't. Have you seen the weapons military forces use?

The Afghans held off a superpower (Russia).

The Iraqis and the Taliban have done a mighty job of kicking our ass a little bit.

The North Vietnamese was a determined citizenry with some guns and they held off everything we had to offer.

A determined citizenry with guns, never underestimate them.

Originally posted by Aster Phoenix
Okay prove that speeding is not a factor in motor accidents and death.

Don't people speed without respect to the speed limit as it is?

So it being there, really is irrelevant to speeders, crashes and deaths correct?

Originally posted by Symmetric Chaos
[B]"and in ways that would actually be beneficial"

I'm not naive enough to think he won't do anything or that he's perfect, I just think he'll do less and with less destructive effect for the rest of us.


Not really.

Obama is just more of the same. So is McCain. Both will just do the usual tinkering of the status quo here and there.

That status quo needs a damn overhauling.

Originally posted by BigRed

The Afghans held off a superpower (Russia).

With US military help.
Originally posted by BigRed
The Iraqis and the Taliban have done a mighty job of kicking our ass a little bit.

Taliban had and still have military grade weapons, and the Iraqis are getting outside help from Syria and the like.
Originally posted by BigRed
The North Vietnamese was a determined citizenry with some guns and they held off everything we had to offer.

Yes, because they didn't get any help at all from Russia or China.

elector projection, fivethirtyeight and electoral vote all have NV, NM and CO in the Obama column. Making it 286 to 252.

It's all about the midwest it seems.

Originally posted by RocasAtoll
With US military help.

Taliban had and still have military grade weapons, and the Iraqis are getting outside help from Syria and the like.

Yes, because they didn't get any help at all from Russia or China.


Sure they had help.

But not the fullest extent of actually winning a war or having help in actually fighting the war.

Look, the point is this: there are well over two hundred million gun owners (last time I looked), with a multitude of weapons. Then of course you have those that aren't even in the statistics probably because their criminals. There are only at the most five million people in the military. Do some guerilla warfare and I think you could stand a chance against the United States military.

That's why I think any country would be foolish to invade the United States. Not because of our military, but because of our gun owners.

Originally posted by sithsaber408
McCain is beating Obama by a margin of 48% to 45% in the daily Gallup poll.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110050/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Moves-Ahead-48-45.aspx

(that's among registered voters)

A new USA Today/Gallup poll has the McCain lead at 10 points!http://www.gallup.com/poll/110050/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Moves-Ahead-48-45.aspx

(this is among likely voters)

Realclearpolitics now has McCain up by 1 point when averaging all polls together.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

This includes the new daily gallup poll (McCain +3), the new USA Today/Gallup poll (McCain +10), Rasmussen tracking for Fri-Sun (McCain +1), another poll from tue-thur of last week (does not include McCains speech) that has Obama +6, a CBS poll from Mon-Wed that's a tie (does not include the Palin/McCain speeches), and another that has Obama +1 that was before the RNC even started.

Can't wait to see RCP poll averages after they get all fresh polls this week.

But ....wow! A 10 point lead? In any poll? Who would've thought that would happen for McCain? He was down 7 points before the convention, according to the USA Today/Gallup poll taken at that time. Meaning (at least according to them) that he had a 17 point bounce!

I was hoping for 10, and I was half-kidding.

Indeed, debates are coming up and many more things that could sway voters.

But for the moment, the McCain/Palin ticket is where all the buzz is.

One change:

The realclearpolitics average has been updated to show a McCain lead of 2.1 points. This comes from the poll that had Obama +6 being changed to a tie.

Seeing what it looks like when CNN, CBS, and NBC/WSJ update their polling this week will be interesting.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Click on the link, only one poll (from before the RNC) has Obama up. (and by only +1) All others have a tie or McCain winning.

Originally posted by sithsaber408
One change:

The realclearpolitics average has been updated to show a McCain lead of 2.1 points. This comes from the poll that had Obama +6 being changed to a tie.

Seeing what it looks like when CNN, CBS, and NBC/WSJ update their polling this week will be interesting.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Click on the link, only one poll (from before the RNC) has Obama up. (and by only +1) All others have a tie or McCain winning.

Polls will not really matter until after the debates.

Originally posted by sithsaber408
One change:

The realclearpolitics average has been updated to show a McCain lead of 2.1 points. This comes from the poll that had Obama +6 being changed to a tie.

Seeing what it looks like when CNN, CBS, and NBC/WSJ update their polling this week will be interesting.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Click on the link, only one poll (from before the RNC) has Obama up. (and by only +1) All others have a tie or McCain winning.

That's weird since it has Obama with a 53% chance of winning, and McCain with 47%.

Click it again, they just changed things.

And updated the CNN poll, which is now a tie.

Not one poll on RCP has Obama winning now. They're all ties or McCain winning.

Why they have the chances that way is beyond me. People aren't polling that way.

Well, the cances is a projection, based on the average and the trend. The average has Obama in a clear lead, but the trend is leaning McCain. Take both into account, Obama still looks to win. There's 2 months left anyway.

Originally posted by lord xyz
elector projection, fivethirtyeight and electoral vote all have NV, NM and CO in the Obama column. Making it 286 to 252.

It's all about the midwest it seems.

*278 to 260

Go here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

It's the RCP electoral map with no toss-ups. (they assign the toss-ups to each candidate based on trends and polls)

Click on CO and select "change to McCain".

He wins.

You'll also see, if you click on CO (which is listed under Obama) that in the polls they have, 4 are for McCain, 2 are for Obama. The ones for McCain have a higher number of registered voters polled (670, 570) and a higher number of likely voters polled (1060 and 700). The 2 Obama polls have less likely voters (450 and 400) and no registered voters.

Yet, the RCP still gives the state to Obama! (in the 2 polls, he was up by more % points) Again, he had less polls in his favor, and the polls in his favor were among lower amounts of voters polled.

Also, all polls are from before the RNC, where Palin/McCain gave a stunning performance.

There haven't been new post-RNC state polls with the exception of MI: Obama+1; AK: McCain +19 and IN: McCain +2; so win/loss percentages and electoral projections aren't likely to change yet. The post-convention bounces in national polls are likely to evaporate anyway.

Also, the RCP average has been updated again to include a new Daily Gallup poll (the one that I listed previously was from Sunday)

It shows McCain up by 5 points, now making the RCP average: McCain by 3.2

Every poll is from Fri-Sun, none have Obama in the lead. 2 are tied, and 3 have McCain in the lead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

In other news, NBC's Chuck Todd is all over the Today Show and other news outlets saying that these polls (the +10 USA Today/Gallup and Daily Gallup in particular) aren't accurate, and that they show the "energy level" of certain voters.

When the NBC/WSJ poll comes out on Wed (the "gold standard" of polls according to Todd), then we'll apparently see how things are shaping up.

Love it. Polls show Obama's popularity among the electorate, but when McCain wins, the left-leaning NBC attempts to discredit them. But wait,...if our poll is released, it'll be accurate.

I'm betting now that it'll show Obama +2.

Originally posted by BigRed
Sure they had help.

But not the fullest extent of actually winning a war or having help in actually fighting the war.


They wouldn't have had a chance without military aid. Tanks normally don't get that damaged from a handgun.
Originally posted by BigRed
Look, the point is this: there are well over two hundred million gun owners (last time I looked), with a multitude of weapons. Then of course you have those that aren't even in the statistics probably because their criminals. There are only at the most five million people in the military. Do some guerilla warfare and I think you could stand a chance against the United States military.

Even though this is completely unrealistic and foolish, I'll bite. They have guns. Do they have RPGs? Anti-tank weapons? Anti-air? Air-to-sea missiles?
If you answered no to these questions, then you're not a dumbass and should be able to figure out they'd have no chance.
Originally posted by BigRed
That's why I think any country would be foolish to invade the United States. Not because of our military, but because of our gun owners.

No, they'd be foolish because their homeland would be a nuclear wasteland.

LMAO. If the US military were to use it's full force against the US citizenry, and the citizenry tried to fight back against it with shotguns and handguns... the end result would simply be a whole lot of dead US citizens and some very slightly dinged tanks.

Handguns against heavily armored tanks, helicopters, planes, battleships, missiles. Good luck.

A resistance war is fought with bombs and sabotage, not guns.

And homemade bombs have no hope against an M1's armour.

Originally posted by xmarksthespot
LMAO. If the US military were to use it's full force against the US citizenry, and the citizenry tried to fight back against it with shotguns and handguns... the end result would simply be a whole lot of dead US citizens and some very slightly dinged tanks.

Handguns against heavily armored tanks, helicopters, planes, battleships, missiles. Good luck.

Agreed, but they should still have them.