United States Presidential Election 2008 - Official Discussion Thread

Started by inimalist143 pages
Originally posted by BigRed
That's why I think any country would be foolish to invade the United States. Not because of our military, but because of our gun owners.

right, being more than 2-3 generations ahead of them in military technology, having the most mobile army on the planet, strategies determined to maintain air supremacy, one of the largest nuclear stockpiles on the planet and a host of other issues have little to do with it.

For instance: aircraft carriers, one of the most important weapons in the entire American military. Their benefits cannot be overestimated.

America has 11 currently in service, with 2 on the way. China has none. Russia has 1. With the exception of Canada or Mexico, or I guess Cuba, a nation without aircraft carriers cannot attack America in any meaningful way (unless it is thermo-nuclear war, in which case locals with rifles aren't going to do anything).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_by_country

I'd agree that the proliferation of guns in the country might make it hard to occupy, but that could be said of any nation. Especially given that guerilla tactics almost never resort to direct fire fights. As far as training is concerned, I have heard former soldiers laugh at militia groups. Hell, its likely that the preponderance of security contracting companies in America is a bigger deterrent than hicks with shotguns.

from George Orwell's "You and the Atomic Bomb"

http://tmh.floonet.net/articles/abombs.html

Considering how likely we all are to be blown to pieces by it within the next five years, the atomic bomb has not roused so much discussion as might have been expected... [C]uriously little has been said, at any rate in print, about the question that is of most urgent interest to all of us, namely: "How difficult are these things to manufacture?"

...

it appears from President Truman's remarks, and various comments that have been made on them, that the bomb is fantastically expensive and that its manufacture demands an enormous industrial effort, such as only three or four countries in the world are capable of making. This point is of cardinal importance, because it may mean that the discovery of the atomic bomb, so far from reversing history, will simply intensify the trends which have been apparent for a dozen years past.

It is a commonplace that the history of civilisation is largely the history of weapons. In particular, the connection between the discovery of gunpowder and the overthrow of feudalism by the bourgeoisie has been pointed out over and over again. And though I have no doubt exceptions can be brought forward, I think the following rule would be found generally true: that ages in which the dominant weapon is expensive or difficult to make will tend to be ages of despotism, whereas when the dominant weapon is cheap and simple, the common people have a chance. Thus, for example, thanks, battleships and bombing planes are inherently tyrannical weapons, while rifles, muskets, long-bows and hand-grenades are inherently democratic weapons. A complex weapon makes the strong stronger, while a simple weapon--so long as there is no answer to it--gives claws to the weak.

...

After the invention of the flintlock, and before the invention of the percussion cap, the musket was a fairly efficient weapon, and at the same time so simple that it could be produced almost anywhere. Its combination of qualities made possible the success of the American and French revolutions, and made a popular insurrection a more serious business than it could be in our own day. After the musket came the breech-loading rifle. This was a comparatively complex thing, but it could still be produced in scores of countries, and it was cheap, easily smuggled and economical of ammunition. Even the most backward nation could always get hold of rifles from one source or another, so that Boers, Bulgars, Abyssinians, Moroccans--even Tibetans--could put up a fight for their independence, sometimes with success. But thereafter every development in military technique has favoured the State as against the individual, and the industrialised country as against the backward one.

...

Had the atomic bomb turned out to be something as cheap and easily manufactured as a bicycle or an alarm clock, it might well have plunged us back into barbarism, but it might, on the other hand, have meant the end of national sovereignty and of the highly-centralised police state. If, as seems to be the case, it is a rare and costly object as difficult to produce as a battleship, it is likelier to put an end to large-scale wars at the cost of prolonging indefinitely a "peace that is no peace."

in the modern world, military technology is far too expensive for the common man to possess it, even if laws enabled it. So long as billion dollar tanks and planes remain the most important weapons on the battlefield, the state will have power. Even the suicide bomber, potentially the most devastating way an individual can attack these technologies and their owners, does little to even the asymmetry on the battle field, re: suicide bombing will not bring a military victory in terms of defeating the opposing forces, though it may demoralize them. The morality of a nation's soldiers being the only vulnerable place where the common man can strike (I'm getting images of the orange revolution in my mind).

Yes! Someone mentioned something slightly relevant to Ukraine... so posting the PM isn't completely and utterly off-topic.

If McCain manages to get elected I wonder if he'll send his VPILF to meet the PMILF.

Originally posted by sithsaber408
Also, the RCP average has been updated again to include a new Daily Gallup poll (the one that I listed previously was from Sunday)

It shows McCain up by 5 points, now making the RCP average: McCain by 3.2

Every poll is from Fri-Sun, none have Obama in the lead. 2 are tied, and 3 have McCain in the lead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

In other news, NBC's Chuck Todd is all over the Today Show and other news outlets saying that these polls (the +10 USA Today/Gallup and Daily Gallup in particular) aren't accurate, and that they show the "energy level" of certain voters.

When the NBC/WSJ poll comes out on Wed (the "gold standard" of polls according to Todd), then we'll apparently see how things are shaping up.

Love it. Polls show Obama's popularity among the electorate, but when McCain wins, the left-leaning NBC attempts to discredit them. But wait,...if our poll is released, it'll be accurate.

I'm betting now that it'll show Obama +2.

538.com win percentage: Obama 68%, McCain 32%

Electoral vote projection: Obama 303.9, McCain 234.1

Popular vote projection: Obama 50%, McCain 47.5%

Originally posted by xmarksthespot
There haven't been new post-RNC state polls with the exception of MI: Obama+1; AK: McCain +19 and IN: McCain +2; so win/loss percentages and electoral projections aren't likely to change yet. The post-convention bounces in national polls are likely to evaporate anyway.
I'd agree with I think Backfire who said that it will probably remain pretty close, with a bounce here or there after debates.

I doubt Obama will be able to get a 300+ in electoral college votes if he does win.

Originally posted by RocasAtoll
And homemade bombs have no hope against an M1's armour.

In a resistance war, you don't bomb tanks as much as buildings and people. People in that situation are trying to destabilize society, not achieve military victory.

Originally posted by Strangelove
538.com win percentage: Obama 68%, McCain 32%

Electoral vote projection: Obama 303.9, McCain 234.1

Popular vote projection: Obama 50%, McCain 47.5%

So you have one sites projections v.s. 5 national polls that show a tie or McCain winning.

You once told me to go to RCP to get a good "balance" on polls when I was posting them one by one.

I have been, and they show your boy Barry is slipping.

Of course he is. It's immediately following his opponents convention. This should come as a surprise to no one, and it very likely won't last.

These polls have no more staying power than the polls last week which showed Obama winning by 5-10.

Either way, it will go back and fourth for the rest of the time, it's going to be close.

I agree that you have to wait till after the debates. Thats when the independents and undecideds are factored in better.

National polls are relatively meaningless in the end in the electoral system your country uses. Even moreso right after the convention.

At the same time, while 538 is more pertinent to your system, it has a whole lot of assumptions known only to whoever's doing the projecting; since the general populace isn't hugely familiar with stats and algorithms and probably can't bothered reading about (at least I can't).

It's better not to take either at face value.

Originally posted by sithsaber408
So you have one sites projections v.s. 5 national polls that show a tie or McCain winning.

You once told me to go to RCP to get a good "balance" on polls when I was posting them one by one.

I have been, and they show your boy Barry is slipping.

I said that once, yes, but my views have changed. Simply averaging the polls isn't as accurate as weighting them by reliability.

Plus, you still haven't gotten the message that national polls don't mean jack.

Originally posted by Strangelove
538.com win percentage: Obama 68%, McCain 32%

Electoral vote projection: Obama 303.9, McCain 234.1

Popular vote projection: Obama 50%, McCain 47.5%

And Beyond that, the 538 map shows Colorado for Obama (which RCP shows for Obama by only 0.8% back before the RNC), it shows Nevada for Obama (which RCP shows for McCain by 1% before the RNC), and Michigan, which is only going for Obama by 1% in a poll released today, as being for Obama.

The map that I posted is more likely:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

And just change CO to McCain and he wins.

Originally posted by Aster Phoenix
In a resistance war, you don't bomb tanks as much as buildings and people. People in that situation are trying to destabilize society, not achieve military victory.

in Iraq, it has been the targeting of civilians and infrastructure that has polarized the population against the militants in many locations (Al Qaeda in Iraq [AQI] was defeated largely because the locals in their strongholds became disenfranchised with them blowing up mosques and people looking for work).

I think this site talks about it: http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/001517.html

to the best of my knowledge, if you look at the Vietnam war, the VC didn't target civilians the way Al Qaeda does, so they maintained support from locals.

Suicide bombs against tanks are used very frequently as propaganda by Islamic Jihadi groups. I think they likely have a better draw than showing the murder of people directly.

The purpose of asymmetrical war is to make the stronger side give up its attack, and not necessarily about social destabilization. For example, in Iraq, the destabilization turned the population against those who claimed to be their warriors, and who they had previously protected. In Vietnam, it was the Americans, whose indiscriminate bombing and use of deforesting chemicals that caused destabilization, keeping the population against them and aligned with the VC [similar things also happened in Iraq, as those who turned against Al Qaeda also do not support the American occupation].

EDIT: blah, sorry this is so off topic, I love this stuff though

Sure, and change Ohio to Obama and he wins.

If the election were held right now, McCain would win. It's not, it's held in two months. In two months things won't look as they look now.

Originally posted by sithsaber408
And Beyond that, the 538 map shows Colorado for Obama (which RCP shows for Obama by only 0.8% back before the RNC), it shows Nevada for Obama (which RCP shows for McCain by 1% before the RNC), and Michigan, which is only going for Obama by 1% in a poll released today, as being for Obama.

The map that I posted is more likely:http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

And just change CO to McCain and he wins.

More likely according you your standard

Polling is only so accurate. You have to look at trends in voter registration (Nevada Dems currently have a 600,000+ edge), history (Average margin of victory for Dems in Michigan over the past 5 elections: 4.3%), and demographics (Hispanics in Colorado: 19%. Hispanics are expected to go heavily Democratic in November)

You have to look at more than polls. And that's where RCP fails.

Originally posted by BackFire
Sure, and change Ohio to Obama and he wins.

If the election were held right now, McCain would win. It's not, it's held in two months. In two months things won't look as they look now.

That's true.

In the specific case of Ohio, the RCP average of polls has it going to McCain (barely) but all of the polls used were before the RNC.

Does anybody else get the sense that pick of Palin and the RNC changed the election?

The speeches of Palin/McCain (and Rudy Giuliani who roasted Obama) were viewed by just about or more than those who saw Obama, and he's been outed as the empty suit that he truly is.

That's why polls are changing. McCain should have NO WAY IN HELL of being up by 10 points in any poll, anywhere. Or 5 points. Or tied.

This is after 8 years of BUSH!

It's because the American public is becoming wise to the trick the media tried to play on them by pushing the less-experienced, far more liberal pick of Obama on them, when Hillary would've done much better. Ignoring all his faults, inconsistencies, relationships (Ayers! Wright! Rezzo! Hello?) and praising his "change."

It's a farce, and people see it now.

Originally posted by inimalist
in Iraq, it has been the targeting of civilians and infrastructure that has polarized the population against the militants in many locations (Al Qaeda in Iraq [AQI] was defeated largely because the locals in their strongholds became disenfranchised with them blowing up mosques and people looking for work).

I think this site talks about it: http://www.michaeltotten.com/archives/001517.html

to the best of my knowledge, if you look at the Vietnam war, the VC didn't target civilians the way Al Qaeda does, so they maintained support from locals.

Suicide bombs against tanks are used very frequently as propaganda by Islamic Jihadi groups. I think they likely have a better draw than showing the murder of people directly.

The purpose of asymmetrical war is to make the stronger side give up its attack, and not necessarily about social destabilization. For example, in Iraq, the destabilization turned the population against those who claimed to be their warriors, and who they had previously protected. In Vietnam, it was the Americans, whose indiscriminate bombing and use of deforesting chemicals that caused destabilization, keeping the population against them and aligned with the VC [similar things also happened in Iraq, as those who turned against Al Qaeda also do not support the American occupation].

A resistance vs an invading army is different then one where your fighting your own government.

In a resistance vs an invading army, your trying to wear them out and prolong the war beyond their ability to fight it. In essence a war of attrition.

In a resistance vs your own government, your trying to destabilize society so that the government falls apart.

EDIT: blah, sorry this is so off topic, I love this stuff though

I've never been a fan of "Hispanics are going to go..." "Rural whites are going to go..." "Urban blacks are going to go..."

The Palin pick was a "gamechanger", it kept McCain in this and allowed him to try and recast himself, but it will not be the ultimate determinant.

"Likely voters" is inherently skewed towards Republicans, and doesn't actually reflect the current voter identity demographics.

Originally posted by Aster Phoenix
In a resistance vs your own government, your trying to destabilize society so that the government falls apart.

not necessarily, because destroying the state will also polarize public opinion against you, leaving you with no strongholds in the population to hide and nowhere to safely launch attacks from, both of which are essential for the weaker party to continue survival.

Originally posted by sithsaber408
It's because the American public is becoming wise to the trick the media tried to play on them by pushing the less-experienced, far more liberal pick of Obama on them, when Hillary would've done much better. Ignoring all his faults, inconsistencies, relationships (Ayers! Wright! Rezzo! Hello?) and praising his "change."

By that rhetoric, the American public should be equally wary of McCain.

Edit: I really think you're shooting your load early, the election is two months away and we still haven't heard them go 1-on-1 in the debates, enough can change to sway the vote either way in the time remaining. The only thing your polls and whatnot are showing right now, it's going to be a close race.